原创·双语阅读·人类愚蠢之五大定律
The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
人类愚蠢的基本定律
By Ross Pomeroy September 14, 2016
译者：吴骏
900 words
1,500字
In the early 1600s, pioneering astronomer Johannes Kepler put forth his three laws of planetary motion, which, for the first time, provided an accurate and evidence-based description of the movement of the Solar System's planets around the Sun. By the end of the century, Isaac Newton followed Kepler's example with three laws of his own, describing the relationship between an object and the forces acting on it, thus laying the foundations for classical mechanics. Almost exactly three hundred years later, Carlo M. Cipolla, a professor of economic history at the University of California -Berkeley, introduced a set of laws no less revelatory than those of Kepler or Newton: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity.
17世纪初，先驱天文学家约翰内斯·开普勒提出了三条行星运动定律，首次准确并且基于证据描述了太阳系行星围绕太阳的运动。该世纪末，艾萨克·牛顿跟随开普勒的三定律，描述了物体与作用在物体上的力之间的关系，从而为古典力学奠定了基础。差不多整整三百年后，加州大学伯克利分校的经济史教授卡洛·西波拉（Carlo M. Cipolla）提出了一套启示性不亚于开普勒和牛顿的定律：《人类愚蠢的基本定律》。
While these laws are not taught in grade school, they do hold lessons worthy of reflection in this modern era. Stupidity today is on display more than ever before -- on TV, YouTube, and the city streets you frequent eachand every day. To better react to and avoid such dimwitted behavior, one must first understand it. Cipolla's insightful set of five laws is a helpful guide.
虽然小学里不教这些定律，但它们确实抓住了在当代值得反思的经验教训。今天的愚蠢比以往任何时候都一览无余——在你每日频繁接触的电视，YouTube和城市街道当中。为了更好地应对和避免这种迷惑（dimwitted，俚语，即愚蠢）行为，人们必须首先理解它。西波拉提出的颇有洞察力的五大定律是有用的指南。
His first law sets the stage.
'Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.'
他的第一定律搭好了舞台。
“每个人都低估流通中的愚蠢个体的数量，始终如此，而且不可避免。”
Glaringly pessimistic, the first law is meant to prepare you forwhat's out there, and what's out there are hordes of people who do stupidthings, often without notice. And there are always more of them than you think.
明显悲观的是，第一定律是要帮你为以后可能发生的事情做好准备，而那些事情就是成群结队的人在做蠢事，常常猝不及防。并且，蠢人蠢事总是比你想到的更多。
Contributing to the first law is Cipolla's second law.
'Theprobability that a certain person will be stupid is independent of any othercharacteristic of that person.'
西波拉的第二定律是对第一定律的贡献。
“某个人变得愚蠢的可能性与此人的任何一个其他特征无关。”
Anybody, whether intellectual or ignorant, blue-collar or white collar, book smart or street smart, can be stupid. Moreover, idiocy persists at roughly equal proportions at all levels of society. The rate of stupidity amongst Nobel laureates is just as high as it is amongst male swimmers on the U.S. Olympic team.
任何人，无论知识分子或无知的人，蓝领或白领，在书本上聪明，或在街头聪明的人，都可能是愚蠢的。而且，白痴在社会各层次的比例大致相同。诺贝尔奖获得者中的愚蠢率，和美国奥运代表队男子游泳选手中的愚蠢率，是一样高的。
'[The Second Basic Law’s] implications are frightening,'Cipolla wrote. 'The Law implies that whether you move in distinguished circles or you take refuge among the head-hunters of Polynesia, whether you lock yourself into a monastery or decide to spend the rest of your life in the company of beautiful and lascivious women, you always have to face the samepercentage of stupid people -- which (in accordance with the First Law) willalways surpass your expectations.'
“ [第二定律]的含义令人恐惧，”西波拉写道，它意味着，无论你是步入优异者的圈子，还是在波里尼西亚群岛的食人部落中避难；无论你是把自己锁在修道院，还是决定要在美丽性感的女人们的陪伴下度过余生，你都必须面对相同比例的愚蠢之人——根据第一定律，这个比例将永远超出你的期望。”
How can this be? Well, it might make more sense in light of thedefinition of stupidity, which Cipolla provides in his third law. Understandably, given his background, he tackles the term from an economic perspective. (See the figure below for a visual explanation of the definition.)
怎么会这样？嗯，考虑到西波拉在他的第三定律中提出的愚蠢的定义，这也许更说得通。可以理解的是，鉴于他的背景，他从经济学角度处理了这个术语。（关于定义的直观解释，参阅下图）。
'A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.'
“一个蠢人，是指给另一人或一群人造成损失，同时他本人没有任何收益甚至也可能蒙受损失的人。”
The brute who starts a bar fight; the tailgating driver; the football player who commits a flagrant personal foul; the video gamer throwing a temper tantrum and deciding to sabotage his team; all of these are'stupid' people. Their actions are so utterly thoughtless and unreasonable that reasonable individuals have trouble fathoming how these people can function, Cipolla insists.
发起一场酒吧斗殴的蛮横之人；追尾的驾驶者；明目张胆犯规的足球运动员；发脾气并决定破坏所在团队的玩视频游戏的人；所有这些，都是“愚蠢”的人。西波拉坚称，他们的行为是如此轻率，如此不合理，以至于理性的人很难探查清楚这些人是怎么活着的。
'Our daily life is mostly made of cases in which we lose moneyand/or time and/or energy and/or appetite, cheerfulness and good health becauseof the improbable action of some preposterous creature who has nothing to gainand indeed gains nothing from causing us embarrassment, difficulties or harm.Nobody knows, understands or can possibly explain why that preposterouscreature does what he does. In fact there is no explanation - or better thereis only one explanation: the person in question is stupid.'
“组成我们日常生活的，主要是这些事例：我们在其中失去了金钱和/或时间，和/或精力，和/或食欲，欢乐，以及良好的健康，只是因为某个荒谬的生物做了令人难以置信的事情，此人一无所求，其实，除了带给我们尴尬，困难或伤害，他也一无所获。没人知道，或理解或能够解释为什么那个荒谬的生物会那样干。其实没有什么解释，更恰当地说，只有一种解释：此人是愚蠢的。”
With his next law, Cipolla admonishes the members of society who tacitly encourage stupidity. Most of us are guilty.
借力下一个定律，西波拉告诫那些默许愚蠢的社会成员。我们大多数人都有罪。
'Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.'
“不蠢的人总是低估蠢人的破坏力。尤其，不蠢的人总是忘记：在任何时候，任何地方，任何情况下，与蠢人交往和/或建立关系，总是被证明是一个代价高昂的错误。”
When we have a good idea of who stupid individuals are, we stillhang out with them, even if it's to our detriment, Cipolla laments.
当我们对谁是蠢人有所了解的时候，我们仍然和他们一起外出玩耍，即使这对我们不利，西波拉哀叹道。
'Through centuries and millennia, in public as in privatelife, countless individuals have failed to take account of the Fourth Basic Lawand the failure has caused mankind incalculable losses.'
“多个世纪和几千年以来，无论是在公共场合还是在私人生活中，数不清的人都没有考虑到《第四定律》，这一失败给人类造成了无法估量的损失。”
Cipolla's fifth law of stupidity is unequivocal.
'A stupid person is the mostdangerous type of person.'
西波拉愚蠢定律第五条是明确的。
“愚蠢的人是最危险的人。”
Yes, more dangerous even than a bandit (refer back to the figureabove), who inflicts losses upon others but at least reaps benefits forhimself. Stupid people drag down society as a whole, Cipolla insists.
是的，甚至比强匪更危险（参考上图），后者给别人造成损失，但至少为自己谋取利益。蠢人拖累了整个社会，西波拉坚称。
'Stupid people cause losses to other people with nocounterpart of gains on their own account. Thus the society as a whole isimpoverished.'
“蠢人给别人造成损失，而他们自己却得不到相应的收益。因此，整个社会都是贫困的。”
It's the great and burdensome responsibility of everyone else,particularly the intelligent, to keep them in check.
限制他们，是其他每个人，尤其是聪明人的巨大而繁重的责任。
Source: Cipolla, Carlo M. 'The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity.' Whole Earth Review (Spring 1987 pp 2 - 7)
图释：愚蠢比鳄鱼还危险