美元注定下跌，下跌姿势很重要【经济学人精讲】第201期
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第201期精讲
本文选自经济学人2019年1月10日文章。2018年，美元相对一篮子货币汇率一路上涨，美元对人民币汇率更是一度涨到接近7，但根据外汇交易的一条铁定原则，有涨必有跌，在未来几年，美元下跌在所难免。既然注定下跌，下跌姿势很重要，美元将如何下跌，且看本文分析。
由于篇幅较长，本文节选原文标题和全文重点段落进行精讲，帮助大家提高英语阅读和写作能力。
1 英文原文
The fate of the dollar will shape financial markets in 2019
After rising by 7% against a basket of currencies in 2018, where is it headed next?
Back at work, investors might usefully apply this aphorism to the fate of the dollar. In a volatile period for financial markets, it rose by 7% against a broad basket of currencies in 2018 and by 4% against a narrower group of rich-country currencies (see chart). One of the more robust principles of foreign-exchange trading is that what goes up must eventually come down. The dollar is over-valued on benchmarks, such as The Economist’s Big Mac Index (see Graphic Detail). It is due a fall. When that is all that is left, the manner of its falling will matter a great deal.
The bear case for the dollar is based on an expectation that GDP growth in America will slow markedly. Last year, it was boosted by tax cuts. That stimulus will fade. Interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve will bite harder. A lower oil price is a factor. It hurts investment in America’s shale regions, but is a boon for oil-importing countries in Asia and Europe. America’s stockmarket is relatively dear. Its tech darlings no longer seem invulnerable. In short, an exceptional period for America’s economy is coming to an end. The dollar ought to lose ground, too.
2 选文精讲
The fate of the dollar will shape financial markets in 2019
美元的命运将左右2019年金融市场
shape: 塑造（to give definite form, shape, organization, or character to; fashion or form.），shape经常在外刊中出现，一般做动词“塑造”的意思，例如近期在《经济学人》一篇讲中国如何主宰科技的文章中有一句话：
Today the country that the May Fourth students helped shape is more than ever consumed by the pursuit of national greatness.（from "How China could dominate science"） 今天，五四学生想要塑造的这个国家比以往任何时候都更热衷于追求国家的强大。
After rising by 7% against a basket of currencies in 2018, where is it headed next?
在2018年美元对一篮子货币汇率上升7%之后，下一步将何去何从?
Back at work, investors might usefully apply this aphorism to the fate of the dollar. In a volatile period for financial markets, it rose by 7% against a broad basket of currencies in 2018 and by 4% against a narrower group of rich-country currencies (see chart). One of the more robust principles of foreign-exchange trading is that what goes up must eventually come down. The dollar is over-valued on benchmarks, such as The Economist’s Big Mac Index (see Graphic Detail). It is due a fall. When that is all that is left, the manner of its falling will matter a great deal.
aphorism: 格言、谚语，联系上下文，这里指上文的“Locked in a cellar as his father approaches, Richard resolves not to cower. “As if the way one falls down mattered,” mocks one of his brothers. “When the fall is all that is,” replies Richard, “it matters”.”当父亲逼近被锁在地窖的理查德时，他决心不再退缩，他的弟弟嘲笑道：“谁会关心一个倒地的人是以什么姿势摔倒的呢？”理查德回应说:“当摔倒无可避免，那如何倒下就很重要。” approach：靠近、逼近；cower: 畏缩、退缩；As if the way one falls down mattered: 字面意思是“一个人摔倒的方式看似很重要”，言下之意就是“一个人摔倒的方式不重要”，按翻译信达雅的要求，可翻译成“谁会关心一个倒地的人是以什么姿势摔倒的呢”；all that is: 字面意思是“全部、没有其它的”，引申义是“注定的、不可避免的”，本段最后一句“When that is all that is left”, 也是同样的意思，可翻译为“当下跌是注定的”。
volatile: 原意指“具有挥发性的”，这里指“不稳定的”，这个词经常在外刊中出现，一般指政治、经济等不稳定（volatile economy: 经济不稳定），例如《华盛顿邮报》中有一句话：
The U.S. economy has a good chance of remaining healthy even as China and Europe soften, and markets and politics remain volatile, many economists say. 许多经济学家说，即使中国和欧洲经济疲软，市场和政治动荡不安，美国经济依然可以呈健康态势。
a broad basket of currencies：一篮子货币，固定表达，记住就好。
robust principle：铁定原则。robust: 强健的，在外刊中，一般指经济增长强劲，eg. robust growth：强劲增长。
what goes up must eventually come down: 有涨必有跌 [写作推荐]
Economist’s Big Mac Index: 《经济学人》杂志的巨无霸汉堡指数，英国《经济学人》杂志编制的一个不是很严谨的指数。 该杂志比较麦当劳巨无霸汉堡包(Bid Mac)在世界各地的价格，作为各国币值是否被低估或高估的指南。其假设是相似的食品无论在哪里销售，其价格应当是相同的，价格有差别意味着币值出现异常情况。
due：该词有很多意思，due date: 截止日、到期日；due to: 因为、由于；这里due是指“欠下的”意思，整句话意思是美元还欠我们一个下跌。
matter a great deal: 很重要 [写作推荐]
（过完圣诞节）重新回到工作中，投资者会发现将这句格言用于美元的命运上也非常恰当。在金融市场动荡的2018年，美元对一揽子货币汇率上升7%，对少数发达国家货币汇率上升4%(见图表)。外汇交易中一项铁定原则是，有涨必有跌。在诸如《经济学人》的巨无霸指数等基准上，美元被高估了，现在美元还欠我们一个下跌，如果下跌是注定的，那它的下跌方式很重要。
The bear case for the dollar is based on an expectation that GDP growth in America will slow markedly. Last year, it was boosted by tax cuts. That stimulus will fade. Interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve will bite harder. A lower oil price is a factor. It hurts investment in America’s shale regions, but is a boon for oil-importing countries in Asia and Europe. America’s stockmarket is relatively dear. Its tech darlings no longer seem invulnerable. In short, an exceptional period for America’s economy is coming to an end. The dollar ought to lose ground, too.
markedly: 显著的（to an extent which is clearly noticeable; significantly.），可与noticeably, strinkingly, remarkably, significantly, apparently等词互换，这些词在外刊中都经常出现。
boost: 推动，促进，一般用于推动经济发展、推动实力、促进能力等，例如《经济学人》一篇关于中国引进日本养老院模式的文章标题就是：
Old-age homes boost Japan’s soft power in China 养老院推动日本在中国的软实力
fade: 逐渐消失，可与dim, vanish(一般指突然消失)，disappear（强调消失不见）, weaken, wither, diminish等词互换，但这些词又有各自的意味，大家在阅读外刊中可以仔细揣摩。
bite: 原意是指“咬”的意思，这里是指“使更加糟糕”，(Slang . to be notably repellent, disappointing, poor, etc.)，bite harder: 雪上加霜。
boon: 福利、恩惠，可数名词。
exceptional period: 非常时期、特殊时期。
is coming to an end: 即将结束，非常简单也非常实用的短语。 [写作推荐]
lose ground: 下跌，此外还有后退、处于不利地位的意思
看跌美元是基于对美国GDP增长将显著放缓的预期。去年，减税推动了经济增长。这种刺激效应将会消退，美联储提高基准利率则更是雪上加霜。油价下跌是一个因素，这会抑制对美国页岩地区的投资，但对亚洲和欧洲的石油进口国却是个福音。美国股价处于相对高位，并且它的技术宠儿似乎不再无懈可击。简而言之，美国经济的一个特殊时期（增长时期）即将结束，美元下跌在所难免。