【CHINA DAILY】Securing certainty amid uncertainties
Securing certainty amid uncertainties
By Jia Kang | China Daily Global | Updated: 2020-02-06 00:00
本文发表于英文版《中国日报》2020年2月6日
The novel coronavirus outbreak has added to the downward pressure on the Chinese economy, but further potential can be tapped by pushing forward reform and opening-up
The novel coronavirus that broke out in China prior to the Spring Festival holiday, a peak season for consumption, has had a considerable impact on the consumer market. Complicated by the delay in opening businesses in many parts of the country because of the extending of the holiday, the epidemic is expected to drive the growth rate of China's GDP in the first quarter to below 6 percent. The downward pressure on the economy is increasingly being felt.
The ultimate influence of the epidemic on the Chinese economy remains to be seen. Based on previous experiences, the economic vitality that has been depressed in the early period of a crisis will be released after it ends, with recovered investment and consumption.
For instance, after the SARS outbreak was contained in 2003, the Chinese economy rallied quickly. When it is clear that the fight against the novel coronavirus has been won, we should ramp up reform efforts and expand effective financing and investment to release consumption potential, so as to offset the negative influence caused by the epidemic. If the epidemic can be controlled in the second quarter, we should strive to ensure the smooth transition of the economy from the second quarter to the second half of the year.
In response to the novel coronavirus outbreak, we need to keep the macroeconomic policy consistent, and adhere to a more active fiscal policy and a monetary policy that aims for reasonably abundant liquidity.
It is estimated that hundreds of billions of yuan will be spent in the fight against the virus. But it is not a big sum compared with China's total fiscal expenditure of more than 20 trillion yuan ($2.8 trillion) a year. So the fiscal deficit ratio will not rise significantly due to the epidemic.
Downward pressure on the economy will persist after the outbreak ends. In the long term, the Chinese economy will still be pushed forward by reform, of which the focus should be innovation. People will only spend more and save less when the economic fundamentals are stronger.
But there is undoubtedly still huge development potential for the Chinese economy to tap.
Many scholars, based on the experiences of Western countries, believe that China has reached the later stage of industrialization. In fact, although many coastal areas of China have reached the later stage of industrialization, many areas in the central and western parts of the country are still in the middle, or even early, stage of industrialization. China still has an arduous journey to undertake to upgrade its manufacturing industry from "made in China" to "created in China" and "intelligent manufacturing". The urbanization process, which unfolds along with industrialization, also has a long way to go. Only with further industrialization and urbanization can China realize its growth potential in the modernization drive.
Besides, there is a wide gap between urban and rural areas in China. We can narrow this gap through effective investment.
According to the guideline of modernizing governance and improving governance ability established at the fourth plenary session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee, it is a pressing task to stimulate consumption and improve the country's economic prospects by expanding effective investment and financing and improving the innovation mechanism.
The China-US trade frictions, which are probably going to last for a long time, mean the Chinese economy still faces a lot of uncertainties. But given the resilient performance of the macroeconomy and the ongoing efforts to improve the economic structure, China still has some leeway in its march toward industrialization, urbanization, marketization and globalization. The country will strive to stabilize its economic growth rate at around 6 percent after absorbing the uncertainties in the economic downturn, and realize the transition to the L-shaped growth pattern.
After this year, the Chinese government should seek for certainties amid uncertainties. It should expand domestic demand through effective investment. To overcome the middle income trap, it should upgrade the economy by combining an efficient market with a limited and effective government and supply-side structural reform, and unleash the potential of scientific innovation and management innovation through institutional innovation so as to realize high-quality and sustainable development.
As long as China keeps on the path of reform and opening-up and focuses on developing its economy in a high-quality manner, time will prove to be the best friend of China in its journey.
贾 康 介 绍
第十一届、十二届全国政协委员和政协经济委员会委员，华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家，中国财政科学研究院研究员、博导，中国财政学会顾问，国家发改委PPP专家库专家委员会成员，中国一带一路PPP项目开发委员会委员，中关村公共资源竞争性配置促进中心首席经济学家，北京市、上海市等多地人民政府咨询委员，北京大学、中国人民大学等多家高校特聘教授。1995年享受政府特殊津贴。1997年被评为国家百千万人才工程高层次学术带头人。多次受朱镕基、温家宝、胡锦涛和李克强等中央领导同志之邀座谈经济工作（被媒体称之为“中南海问策”）。担任2010年1月8日中央政治局第十八次集体学习“财税体制改革”专题讲解人之一。孙冶方经济学奖、黄达—蒙代尔经济学奖和中国软科学大奖获得者。国家“十一五”、“十二五”和“十三五”规划专家委员会委员。曾长期担任财政部财政科学研究所所长。1988年曾入选亨氏基金项目，到美国匹兹堡大学做访问学者一年。2013年，主编《新供给：经济学理论的中国创新》，发起成立“华夏新供给经济学研究院”和“新供给经济学50人论坛”（任首任院长、首任秘书长），2015年-2016年与苏京春合著出版《新供给经济学》专著、《供给侧改革：新供给简明读本》、以及《中国的坎：如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”（获评中国图书评论学会和央视的“2016年度中国好书”）》，2016年出版的《供给侧改革十讲》被中组部、新闻出版广电总局和国家图书馆评为全国精品教材。根据《中国社会科学评估》公布的2006～2015年我国哲学社会科学6268种学术期刊700余万篇文献的大数据统计分析，贾康先生的发文量（398篇），总被引频次（4231次）和总下载频次（204115次）均列第一位，综合指数3429，遥居第一，是经济学核心作者中的代表性学者。