TE||Cool Germany
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难民危机分裂了德国但不会重演
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Cool Germany
酷德国
本文英文部分选自经济学人Leaders版块
Germany is becoming more open and diverse
德国变得更加开放和多元化
With the right leadership, it could be a model for the West
如果有正确的领导，它会成为西方的楷模
SINCE the fall of the Berlin Wall the Ampelmännchen, the jaunty, behatted “little traffic-light man” of communist East Germany, has escaped his dictatorial roots to become a kooky icon of Germany’s trendy capital. Tourists pose with life-size models and snap up memorabilia in souvenir shops. The Ampelmännchen’s quirky coolness is an increasingly apt symbol of the country as well as its capital. As our special report in this issue describes, Germany is entering a new era. It is becoming more diverse, open, informal and hip.
自从柏林墙倒了之后，共产主义东德的欢快、戴帽子的‘红绿灯小人’，摆脱了它独裁的形象，成为了德国流行之都新异的标志。旅行者和真人大小的模型合照，抢购纪念品店中的红绿灯小人。红绿灯小人奇特的冷静形象正成为这个首都乃至整个国家更贴切的标志。正如我们这期特别报告所报导的，德国正进入一个新的时代。它正变得更多元化，开放，随意且欢脱。
德国交通信号灯红绿人:
https://zhidao.baidu.com/question/201085334120044565.html
At first blush that seems a preposterous suggestion. The Germany of international newspaper headlines is a country with anxious citizens and stagnant politics. Angela Merkel is Europe’s longest-standing political leader, a woman who epitomises traditional German caution. Last September’s election saw a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD); it took Mrs Merkel six months to cobble together a lacklustre new coalition. To conservative foreign observers Germany is a byword for a reckless refugee policy; to others it is the country that bullied indebted southern Europeans.
乍一看，这是个荒谬的建议。国际报纸头条中的德国往往是一个公民焦虑、政治停滞的国家。安吉拉·默克尔（Angela Merkel）一个有着典型传统德国谨慎的女性，她是欧洲最执政最久的领导人。去年的九月的选举见证了支持德国极右翼选择党的数量剧增；默克尔花了六个月时间拼凑出一个平庸的新联合政府。对保守的外国观察者来说，德国是鲁莽难民政策的代名词；对其他人来说，正是德国在欺凌南欧那些负债累累的国家。
at first blush: literary when first thought of or considered:
be a byword for something: to be so well known for a particular quality that your name is used to represent that quality
But take the long view, and the Ampelmännchen captures how Germany is changing. Post-war German history has moved in cycles of about 25 years. First came the era of reconstruction.Then, from the late 1960s, the federal republic began to reckon frankly with its war guilt. In its latest phase, from the 1990s, Germany has reunified, become a normal country again and shed some of the fetters of its past. Now the wheels of history are turning once more. The Merkel era is drawing to a close.Many of the country’s defining traits—its ethnic and cultural homogeneity, conformist and conservative society, and unwillingness to punch its weight in international diplomacy—are suddenly in flux.
但是从长远的角度来看，红绿灯小人却反映了德国所经历的变化。距离战后已有25年。起初是重建时期。接着从60年代后期开始，作为一个联邦制共和国，德国开始坦诚地反思过往的战争罪行。最近一个阶段，也就是从90年代开始，德国统一并且再次成为一个步入常规的国家，同时也摆脱了部分历史的枷锁。如今，历史的车轮再次转动。而默克尔时代也即将终结。其民族文化的同质性，墨守成规的保守社会氛围和不愿在国际外交上展露锋芒等许多用来定义这个国家的鲜明特质突然之间都产生了变化。
Promising signals
希望之光
The biggest change comes from Mrs Merkel’s “open door” policy towards refugees, which brought in 1.2m new migrants in 2015-16. This has confirmed once-homogeneous Germany’s transformation into a melting-pot.A more inclusive identity is emerging—a country that waited until 2000 to extend citizenship to many of those without native ancestors increasingly defines nationality in civic rather than ethnic terms.A patriarchal culture has become more gender-balanced: the share of working-age women with jobs has risen from 58% to 70% in the past 15 years.Germans are divorcing more and marrying less.Even the Mittelstand’s firms are adopting disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence.And having undertaken no foreign military operations in the half-century to 1999, Germany has sent troops to Mali, Afghanistan and Lithuania.
最大的变化源自于默克尔用于应对难民潮的“开门”政策，该政策导致德国在2015－2016年间新增移民120万。这使德国从曾经的民族单一国度变成了一个多元民族文化大熔炉。一个更加包容的德国正在冉冉升起。要知道，直到2000年，这个国家才把公民身份赋予了那些祖辈并非德国本地人的人，而这也大大说明德国从此使用公民概念而非民族概念来定义国籍。而由父系文化主导的社会结构在性别方面也变得更为平等。适龄劳动女性的就业率从15年前的58%上升到如今的70％。德国离婚的人越来越多，结婚的人越来越少。甚至中小型企业也都采用了颠覆性的人工智能科技。并且在1999年之前的大半个世纪内，德国都没有进行海外军事行动，而1999年后，德国已经派军前往马里、阿富汗和立陶宛。
This is shaking up a society that has long prized stability, opening cultural divides between those who embrace the new Germany and those who hanker for the familiar; between urban and rural voters; between young and old. The emergence of a new generation of more combative lawmakers, the AfD’s arrival in the Bundestag and the battle over the future direction of Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats are all stoking debates about the country’s identity.
这正在动摇一个长期重视稳定的社会，并产生了文化上的分歧。这些分歧体现在那些拥抱新德国的人与不希望改变的人之间，在城市选民与郊区选民之间，在年轻人和老人之间。新一代更加争勇好斗的立法者的出现，德国选择党在德联邦议院的出现，以及默克尔的基督教民主党关于未来方向的内斗，都在引发关于国家身份的辩论。
德国的选择（AfD）是德国新成立的新政治运动团体。它以抛弃欧元为核心目标。该党要求德国退出欧元区，并重启德国马克。德国民意调查中，有超过四分之一的受调查德国人支持这一政党及其主张。2012年以来，欧洲经济危机日益严重，作为欧元区最大经济体，关于德国是否退出欧元区的争论逐渐升温。2013年4月14日，“德国的选择”在德国柏林举行成立大会，约1500人与会。这个反对欧元的政党刚露面就引起德国各大政党的关注。随后，该党成员迅速增加至7000多人。2017年得票率为12.6%，成为德国自第二次世界大战结束以来首个进入议会的右翼民粹主义政党。
链接 https://baike.baidu.com/item/德国的选择/1792866?fr=aladdin
The outcome will determine the future of Europe’s biggest economy. It will also matter beyond Germany’s borders. The country is grappling with the rise of a more plural society at the same time as many others are doing so. Germans are temperamentally moderate and, thanks to their history, particularly sensitive to the dangers of demagoguery. How they navigate their country’s transition could set an example for others.
这些分歧演变的结果将会决定欧洲最大经济体的未来，其重要性也不仅仅关乎德国国内。德国和其他国家一样正同时与一个更加多元的社会斗争。德国人气质上比较温和，多亏他们的历史，对于煽动群众的危险特别的敏感。他们如何操纵国家转型将会为其他国家树立一个榜样。
At home, the new Germany has shed its post-reunification economic woes and is booming, but it is also ageing fast; the largest age group is the 50-to-54s. Preserving its prosperity requires forward-looking reform. Internet access is patchy and slow; roads and classrooms can be surprisingly shabby; a tangle of red tape restricts service industries; and under Mrs Merkel the retirement age has fallen for some and will soon be lower than in France. The flow of newcomers to Germany can help cushion the demographic crunch, especially if immigration procedures are streamlined, education is improved to break the tight link between background and results, and the strictly regulated German professions are made more accessible.
在国内，新德国摆脱了统一后的经济困境，蓬勃发展，但也在迅速老龄化;最大的年龄组是50岁至54岁。保持繁荣需要前瞻性的改革。互联网接入不完整且缓慢;道路和教室可能会令人吃惊地简陋;繁文缛节限制服务业;在默克尔的领导下，退休年龄有所下降，并且很快会低于法国。流入德国的新移民有助于缓解人口危机，特别是如果移民流程得到精简，教育得到改善以打破背景和待遇之间的紧密联系，严格规范的德国职业更容易获得。
Abroad, the new Germany could also become a different sort of power. It remains frustratingly prone to a small-country outlook: reluctant to spend enough on defence, to confront the imbalances caused by its trade surplus and to accept more burden-sharing in the euro zone. Yet there are signs of movement. Under pressure from France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, it will reluctantly accept some moves towards euro-zone integration, albeit tentative and insufficient ones. Germany’s vulnerability to trade disruption makes it a natural broker in an age of tariff wars. Last month its new economy minister helped to persuade the White House to suspend planned steel and aluminium duties on the EU and other allies.
在国外，新德国也可能成为另一种力量。它仍然令人沮丧地倾向于小国的观点：不愿意花足够的钱来防御，不愿意面对贸易顺差造成的失衡和不愿意分担欧元区的更多责任。然而，这些也有改进的迹象。在法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）的压力下，它将不情愿地接受欧元区一体化的一些行动，尽管是暂时的和不足的举措。德国的贸易中断脆弱性使其成为关税战时代的自然掮客。上个月，新上任的经济部长说服了白宫暂停对欧盟和其他盟国计划的钢铁和铝关税。
Meanwhile, the refugee crisis is expanding German horizons. At its peak Mrs Merkel requested a map shaded to highlight Germany’s true borders: North Africa, Ukraine and Turkey. Then at last year’s G20 summit in Hamburg the chancellor advanced a “Compact with Africa” to accelerate development and improve governance on the continent. Though overhyped and underfunded, it gives a hint of the convening and stabilising role a normalised Germany could yet play.
与此同时，难民危机正在扩大德国的视野。在最严重的时期，默克尔要求绘制一张地图，以突出德国与北非、乌克兰和土耳其的真正的边界，。去年在汉堡举行的G20峰会上，德国总理提出了“非洲契约”，以加速非洲大陆的发展，改善其治理水平。尽管过度炒作且资金不足，它暗示着，一个标准化的德国正准备发挥其统领和稳定作用。
Green for go
绿灯行
All of which makes the character of Mrs Merkel’s successor pivotal. Her uncontentious, reactive style has suited her times. But a new Germany requires a different type of chancellor: proactive at home, ambitious abroad and with the skills to persuade German voters of the case for this ambition.
所有这些都使得默克尔的继承人的作用举足轻重。她的谦让被动适应于她的时代，但是，一个新的德国需要一个不同类型的总理：在国内积极进取，在国外雄心勃勃，并且有能力说服德国选民支持这个雄心。
With the right leadership, there is little doubt about the country’s capability. In its latest historical phase alone it has absorbed the sclerotic, ex-communist east, overcome economic crisis in the early 2000s, taken in over 1m poor, often desperate immigrants—and coped. Now, as in the past, it would be a mistake to underestimate Germany. Like the Ampelmännchen, it has a knack for reinvention.
有了正确的领导，德国的国家能力将无处质疑。在它最近的一个历史阶段，它吸收了曾信仰共产主义的僵化的东方国家，克服了21世纪初的经济危机，接收了超过一百万穷人，这些人往往是绝望的移民。德国应对了这一切。现在，像过去一样，低估德国是错误的。就像红绿灯小人一样，这个国家有着革新的巨大潜力。
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Cece，女，消防工作者，CATTI三笔
Aileen，女，大四数学狗 经济学人粉丝
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Xiaofeng, 女，好奇心重的医疗民工，经济学人粉丝，
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