专家解析| “脱欧”刺激期房交易量

专家解析：

“脱欧” 刺激期房交易量

由于政府打击BTL房东或海外买家提出的3%印花税新政，加上6月公投前后房市的不确定性，因此导致伦敦区二手房的买卖冷清暗淡许多。

相对于新房期房的买卖，开发商继公投前期房没有理想的交易压力， 在公投后愿意释放善意多给出折扣给海外买家。顺应英镑的跌幅，房贷利率调降，从6月底至今，英国房市成买家市场，有几个因素可解释海外的买家纷别纷飞回英国看房下订，期房买卖的却活络许多的原因。

另外，胡润2015年统计显示，可投资资产1千万人民币以上的高净值人群已超过100万人次的规模，其中48%的高净值客户增加了境外配置， 大部分国人的境外投资起步于房产， 36%的人拥有海外房地产投资。另外人民币贬值，国内资产回报率下降，未进行境外投资的高净值人士中，56%的人表示未来三年内将考虑境外投资。

2016年金融市场波动较大，投资环境不稳定，在今年中国国家统计局公布的最新的“2016年8月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况”数据证明了政府2015年第四季度的中国房地产市场调控（去库存新政）， 反促使房价上涨， 连二线城市厦门(+43.69)，苏州(+35.20)，南京(+28.89) 等代表城市十个月内都有价格暴涨情形。

海外房产成为高净值家庭的投资新选择。而国内房市面临两极化状况：一线楼市因房价太热面临国家调控；二三线城市因房产库存过多不具备保值投资价值，海外置产会成为高净值家庭2016年的投资重点。

根据房地产顾问机构Demographia公布的年度《全球住房负担能力调查》，香港为“全球房价最难负担城市”的首位，房价与收入比（家庭平均住房价格与居民的家庭年收入的中位数之比）为19倍。若依样分析中国的城市，北京、上海和深圳的买房负担分别为33.2、31.9和33.5倍，远高于香港. 曾有客人抱怨中国城市的区住环境，城市污染，恶劣工时环境和压迫生活，导致他们申办移民海外置产的决心。未来迎合中国高净值人群新房期房的英国房产市场我们可乐观期待。

Brexit Boost for London New-Build property investors

It's true that the 2nd hand market has slowed following the introduction of the 3% surplus stamp duty policy. It's also apparent that post-referendum uncertainty has hit the 2nd hand sales market. Market observers would be forgiven for a little slump related pessimism.

However, new homes and off plan sales have perked up due to a weaker pound and lower interest rates being announced. After Brexit, off plan became a buyers’ market and overseas investors have rushed to take advantage of the 'window of opportunity'. With developers even providing incentives to help overseas buyers to recoup pre-referendum low sales performance.

The data underlines a continued interest in UK property despite the decision to leave the EU single market. According to the 2015 HuRun Rich Report, there are more than 1,000,000 HNWIs from China who have more than $10,000,000 RMB to invest. 48% of this group have allocated capital into overseas investments. Most Chinese HNWIs initiate investments in real estate, and 36% of them have investments in overseas property. Furthermore, due to a devalued RMB and low yield returns for investments within China, 56% of Chinese HNWIs have expressed their intentions to invest overseas within the next 3 years.

The case for overseas investment has been strengthened further by the Chinese Government's Property Surplus Intervention. The 2016 National Bureau of statistics' '70 Cities Property Price Report' suggests the interventions had the unintended effect of increasing property prices within the domestic market. The increases are most noticeable in tier 1 cities, however even some tier 2 cities such as Xiamen, Suzhou and Nanjing have seen percentage increases of 43.69%, 35.20% and 28.89% respectively. Such increases seem to be encouraging Chinese investors to look overseas for opportunities. Furthermore, within tier 2 and tier 3 cities, the vast surplus of housing stock is causing concerns about potential low returns and poor growth. All of which point HNWIs to investments overseas in 2016.

The Demographia Consultancy's survey outlines how property in Hong Kong is now 19 times greater than annual household income. This affordability problem is even worse in China's tier 1 cities with average prices approximately 31, 33 and 34 times greater than annual household incomes in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen respectively.

It's not all about the money though. Many consider the problematic environment, pollution and intensive working hours are additional reasons to immigrate and invest in overseas property. It seems highly likely that Chinese investors will continue to invest in UK property.

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