经济学人财经 || 美国公共养老金清算之日即将到来
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导读
感谢思维导图作者May Li
May Li，我要去追逐心中的太阳，北大临床心理备考中
号外号外:本周开始我们即将每周翻译一篇Bloomberg businessweek ，具体更新时间是周六，敬请期待，有兴趣的可以扫码关注。本周更新的文章主要内容是：特斯拉的太阳能业务自2016年收购太阳城(SolarCity)以来大部分时间都在下滑，而且烧钱很快，现在已经有了债务违约的风险，特斯拉股东对马斯克提起诉讼，诉讼指控特斯拉董事会成员(包括当时的马斯克)在批准收购SolarCity的交易时，是为了他们的最佳利益，而不是特斯拉的投资者。 如果有小伙伴对Tesla、Solarcity、太阳能发电等有独特见解的，欢迎小伙伴们加小编微信396196827，一经采纳，将署名发表。
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
State of denial
鸵鸟政策
英文部分选自经济学人20191116Finance and economics版块
Public pensions
公共养老金
State of denial
鸵鸟政策
注：翻译参考鲍勃·伍德沃德(Bob Woodward)的书名《鸵鸟政策：战争中的布什》(State of Denial: Bush at War)
鸵鸟政策：遇到危险时，鸵鸟会把头埋入草堆里，以为自己眼睛看不见就是安全。后来，心理学家将这种消极的心态称之为“鸵鸟心态”。事实上鸵鸟的两条腿很长，奔跑得很快，遇到危险的时候，其奔跑速度足以摆脱敌人的攻击，如果不是把头埋藏在草堆里坐以待毙的话，是足以躲避猛兽攻击的。因此，“鸵鸟政策”是一种逃避现实，不敢正面解决问题的政策方法。
Police officers, teachers and other public workers rely on pension schemes with a multi-trillion-dollar funding hole. A reckoning is coming
警察、教师等公职人员所依赖的养老金计划面临着高达数万亿美元的资金缺口。清算之日，即将到来。
Perhaps it takes teachers to give politicians a lesson. Any official who wants to understand the terrible state of American public-sector pensions should read the financial report of the Illinois Teachers Pension Fund. Its funding ratio of 40.7% is one of the worst in America, according to the Centre for Retirement Research (crr) in Boston (see table).
也许教师们该给政客们上一课了。任何想要了解美国公共部门养老金所处困境的官员都应该阅读一下伊利诺伊州教师养老金基金的财务报告。据波士顿退休研究中心（CRR）称：该教师养老基金资金提存比率仅为40.7%，是美国表现最差的基金之一。
Since it was established in 1939, Illinois officials have not once set aside enough money to fund the pension promises made. As a result, three-quarters of the money the state (or rather the taxpayer) now pays in each year merely covers shortfalls from previous years. The situation is getting worse. In 2009 the schemes’ actuaries requested $2.1bn, but only $1.6bn was paid. By 2018 the state paid in $4.2bn, still well short of the $7.1bn the actuaries asked for. The trustees have warned that the plan would be “unable to absorb any financial shocks created by a sustained downturn in the markets”.
自1939年成立起，伊利诺伊州官员从未留足款项来兑现应付的养老金。造成的结果是如今每年州政府（或者说是纳税人）支付金额的四分之三仅够填补前几年的缺额。而且情况愈发糟糕。精算师计算该计划2009年应支付21亿美元，但实际仅支付了16亿美元。截至2018年，州政府已兑付42亿美元，但仍远少于实际要求的71亿美元。受托人已发出警告：倘若市场持续低迷，该养老金基金将无法抵御任何金融冲击。
Other schemes have attracted similarly stark warnings. Illinois is the class dunce, with six languishing schemes. Chicago Municipal is just 25% funded and the actuaries warn that “the risk of insolvency for the fund has increased”. The actuaries of the Chicago police scheme warn that “this is a severely underfunded plan” with a shortfall of $10bn; the funded ratio is not projected to reach 50% until 2043.
其他养老金计划也面临着类似的严厉警告。仅伊利诺伊州一州便有六只“备受煎熬”的基金，可谓是重灾之地。芝加哥市政基金资金提存比率仅25%，精算师们警告称该基金不足清偿风险正在增加。芝加哥警察养老金计划的精算师们也预警道：该养老金有着100亿美元的资金缺口，“资金严重不足”，资金提存比率预计得到2043年才能达50%。
Offering workers a defined-benefit pension, where an income based on final salary is paid for the rest of their lives, is an expensive proposition, especially as life expectancies lengthen. Pension shortfalls are common across America, with the average public scheme monitored by the crr just 72.4% funded. That adds up to a collective shortfall of more than $1.6trn.
以最终工资数额为准支付每期退休金的约定给付型养老金计划（DB）可谓是昂贵的养老金计划，尤其面临着人类寿命不断延长的现状。养老金短缺在整个美国都很普遍。根据CRR的跟踪调查：美国公共养老金计划的平均资金提存比率为72.4%，加总缺口高达1.6万亿美元之多。
注1：Final salary defined benefit (DB) schemes are occupational pension schemes that provide a set level of pension at retirement, the amount of which normally depends on your service and your earnings at retirement or in the years immediately preceding retirement.
退休办法按退休金给付的确定方式可分为约定提存金办法（defined contribution pension plan）和约定给付办法（defined benefit pension plan）。约定提存金办发是企业按照退休办法的规定，每年提取一定数额的退休基金，交给信托机构保管运用，在职工退休时，将属于该职工的退休基金支付给已退休职工。通常每年提取定额的基金，是按职工工资的一定比例（如工资的5%）提取的，职工退休时所能领取的退休金取决于提存的金额及其所孳生的利息，企业并不保证退休金给付的数额。约定给付退休办法（defined benefit pension plan）是企业承诺在职工退休时一次支付一定数额退休金，或者在职工退休时分期支付一定数额的退休金；只要职工退休时企业有能力履行支付退休金的义务，企业是否按时提取退休基金则由企业决定。在这种办法下，退休金的数额通常根据职工的工资水平及服务年限确定，或者两者均需考虑，或者只需考虑其中一项，如服务年限。前者称为最后工资法，后者称为定额给付法。
https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E9%80%80%E4%BC%91%E5%9F%BA%E9%87%91
https://www.zhihu.com/question/25811587
When a scheme is underfunded, one of three things can happen. More contributions can be made, by employers or workers or both. Benefits can be cut. Or the scheme can earn a higher return on its investments to make up for the shortfall.
当养老金计划资金不足时，通常运用以下三种方法：1. 雇主、雇员中的任一方或双方增加供款；2. 削减约定给付金额；3. 寻求更高基金投资回报以弥补缺口。
Cities and states are paying more, but still not enough. In 2001 public-sector employers contributed a further 5.3% of their payroll to meet pension promises; now that figure is around 16.5% on average (see chart). Even so, in no year since 2001 has the average employer contributed as much as demanded by actuaries. Last year’s shortfall was just under 1% of payroll.
各市及各州如今都在增加养老金供款，但仍不足够。早在2001年，为兑现养老金的支付承诺，公共部门的雇主就曾进一步支付工资总额的5.3％，目前该比率平均约为16.5％（参见图表）。即便如此，自2001年以来，没有哪一年大部分雇主能按精算师要求的数额足额缴纳的。尽管去年的资金缺口仅低于工资总额的1％。
延伸阅读：https://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-16-trillion-global-pension-crisis.html
This reluctance is understandable. Politicians dislike raising taxes—or cutting services to pay for higher contributions. Workers do not want to see their current pay reduced by higher deductions, or their future benefits cut. And in any case, in some states courts have ruled that pension benefits, once promised, cannot be taken away. Arizona attempted a reform in 2012 that would have increased contributions for anyone with less than 20 years’ service. Workers sued and the courts ruled in their favour in 2016, requiring the scheme to repay $220m. Since the failed reform plan was instituted, employers’ contributions as a share of payroll have almost doubled.
这种不情愿（指雇主超额供款）是可以被理解的。（一方面）政治家不情愿通过提高税收或削减服务开支以提高养老金供款；（另一方面）雇员则不希望看到当前的工资因抵扣项增加而减少，亦或是削减未来退休金。另外，某些州法院裁定养老金福利一旦做出承诺，无论如何都不可撤销。亚利桑那州在2012年曾尝试进行改革，只为剩余工作年限不足20年的群体增加养老金供款。（其余）雇员因此提起诉讼，法院在2016年作出了有利于他们的裁决，要求该计划补足其他应缴的2.2亿美元。自从这项失败的改革计划实行以来，雇主用于养老金支付的份额几乎翻了一番。
注：
亚利桑那州养老金改革背景：Arizona’s Pension Challenges: The Need for an Affordable, Secure, and Sustainable Retirement Plan
https://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/assets/2012/11/arizona-pension-challenges.pdf
So states and cities have crossed their fingers and hoped that their investments will bail them out. America’s buoyant stockmarket has done its best to help. Returns on government bonds have also been good for much of the past three decades. Even so, the average public-sector scheme is less well funded now than it was in 2001.
因此，各州和各城市纷纷寄希望于投资帮助他们摆脱困境。美国蓬勃发展的股票市场已竭尽所能（提供最好的投资机遇）。政府债券的回报率在过去三十年的大部分时间里也一直表现不错。但即便如此，现在公共部门养老金计划的资金充足水平仍不如2001年。
注：
1.crossed their fingers：to hope that things will happen in the way that you want them to
2.bail out：帮助...摆脱困境
3.buoyant：a term used to describe a commodities or equity market where the prices are generally rising and when there are considerable signals of strength. These markets have similar features to bull markets, although a buoyant market may not necessarily last as long.
And the markets are unlikely to keep being so helpful. In 1982 the government sold long-term Treasury bonds with a yield of 14.6%; now such bonds yield just 2.4%. Equity valuations are high by historic standards. That suggests future returns will be lower than normal.
并且，市场不可能一直向好。1982年，政府出售收益率14.6％的长期国债，而现如今长期国债收益率仅2.4％。同时，股票估值正处于历史高位，这表明未来的回报将低于现在大体水平。
Kentucky offers a sobering example of how states can spiral towards disaster. In 2001 its retirement system was 120% funded and employers were putting in just 1.9% of payroll. After the dotcom slump, the funding position deteriorated. By 2005 the scheme was less than 75% funded and the required contribution had gone up to 5.3%. But the state fell short of the target every year until 2015, by which point the contribution had leapt to nearly 33% of payroll. In 2018 the actuaries asked for 41%.
肯塔基州就是一个发人深省的例子，诠释了各州是如何一步步走向灾难的。2001年，该州退休体系持有120%的资金，且雇主只需支付工资的1.9%作为养老金供款。互联网泡沫破灭后，资金状况恶化。到2005年，该计划的资金率不足75%，而所需供款则上升至工资的5.3%。（随后每年供款比列持续上升）2015年，该比率上涨至约33%，该州每年都未能达到目标资金额。而2018年，精算师对此比例的要求是41%。
注：1.互联网泡沫：dot com bubble
互联网泡沫（又称科网泡沫或dot泡沫）指自1995年至2001年间的投机泡沫，在欧美及亚洲多个国家的股票市场中，与科技及新兴的互联网相关企业股价高速上升的事件。
2.actuaries /ˈæktʃʊərɪ/ n. 精算师
可数名词 An actuary is a person who is employed by insurance companies to calculate how much they should charge their clients for insurance.
Kentucky’s scheme covering “non-hazardous” workers (those who are not employed by the emergency services) is just 12.8% funded. One of its beneficiaries is Larry Totten, who worked for Kentucky’s park service and retired in 2010 after a 36-year career. When he found out about the scheme’s parlous state, he joined Kentucky Public Retirees, a group that lobbies for pensioners. “There’s enough blame to go around,” he says. Though it was state governors (of various parties) who failed to pay the required amounts into the scheme, it was the state legislature that let them get away with it.
肯塔基州覆盖“非危险岗位”从业者(非应急服务机构从业者)养老金计划资金提存比率仅12.8%。受益人之一拉里·托滕（Larry Totten）曾就职于肯塔基州公园管理局，在工作了36年后，于2010年退休。当发现养老金计划情况严峻时，他加入了一个为退休人员四处发声游说的团体Kentucky Public Retirees。他说:“纷涌的指责够让人四处奔波了。”虽然是各州(各党派)的州长未能向养老金计划支付所需金额，但却是州立法机关让他们得以逍遥法外。
注：
1：“non-hazardous” workers：非危险岗位从业者：危险岗位包括一些应急服务机构(如治安、消防、救护和海岸警卫等）。
2.parlous /ˈpɑːləs/
形容词 If something is in a parlous state, it is in a bad or dangerous condition. 恶劣的; 危险的
例：...the parlous state of our economy.
...我们经济的严峻形势。
Such severely underfunded schemes risk entering two vicious circles. The first involves costs. Kentucky’s public pension scheme covers a wide range of state employers and some have to pay 85% of payroll to cover their pension obligations. Employing someone on $50,000 a year requires an extra $42,500 of contributions. They naturally seek to lay off workers to reduce this cost. But that leaves fewer people paying in without changing the number currently receiving retirement benefits. That increases the short-term squeeze.
这种资金严重不足的计划有可能陷入两种恶性循环。首先是成本。肯塔基州的公共养老金计划覆盖到了该州绝大多数雇主，一些公司不得不用工资总额的85%来支付养老金，即如果雇佣年薪为50000美元的员工，还需为其额外缴纳42500美元养老金。他们自然会选择通过裁员以降成本。但就目前领取退休金人数不变的情况下，这样做只会造成缴纳退休金的人更少，由此加剧短期内资金紧张。
注：lay off
动词词组 If workers are laid off, they are told by their employers to leave their job, usually because there is no more work for them to do. 解雇
例：100,000 federal workers will be laid off to reduce the deficit.
10万名联邦工作人员将被解雇以减少赤字。
The second concerns the accounting treatment of public-sector funds. Many assume nominal returns on their portfolios of 7% or more after fees. This optimism has a big impact. Calculating the cost of a pension promise requires many assumptions—how long people will live, how much wages will rise and so on. Future payouts must be discounted to calculate a cost in current terms, and thus contributions. The higher the discount rate, the lower the current cost and the less employers have to pay in. Public-sector schemes use the assumed rate of investment return as their discount rate—so a high rate lowers the apparent cost.
其次是公共部门资金的会计处理。许多州政府假定自己的投资组合扣除费用后的名义回报率为7%或更高。这种乐观情绪有着巨大的影响。计算未来养老金所需金额是基于很多假设——人们能活多久，工资涨幅是多少等等。未来所需支付金额通过折现计算出当前所需支付的养老金成本。贴现率越高，当前所需成本越低，雇主需要支付的费用就越少。公共部门养老金计划假定以投资回报率作为折现率——提高折现率，降低账面成本。
注：discount rate
可数名词 The discount rate is the rate of interest that the central bank of a country charges on the loans that it makes to other banks. (央行的)贴现率
例：The Federal Reserve has cut the discount rate five times in 12 months.
美联储已在12个月间5次下调贴现率。
But if a scheme becomes severely underfunded, a plunge in the stockmarket could leave it unable to cover current payouts. So it must invest in safer, lower-yielding securities, such as government bonds. That reduces the discount rate and makes the pension hole even bigger. Kentucky’s non-hazardous scheme uses an expected return of 5.25%, much lower than most public-sector schemes.
但假若一项计划资金严重不足，股市暴跌会使其无法支付当前所需支付的养老金。因此，基金必须投资于更安全、收益率更低的证券，如政府债券。而这降低了折现率，使养老金缺口更大。肯塔基州的非危险岗位从业人员的养老金计划采用的预期回报率为5.25%，远低于大多数公共部门的养老金计划。
These calculations look surreal by comparison with private-sector pension funds. Their accounting rules regard a pension promise as a debt like any other. After all, courts insist pensions have to be paid, whatever the investment returns. The discount rate must therefore be based on the cost of debt—for companies, the yield on aa-rated corporate bonds. Since that yield, now around 3%, is far lower than the return assumed by public-sector funds, private-sector pension liabilities are very expensive. Faced with a $22.4bn shortfall, General Electric recently froze pension benefits for 20,000 employees.
这一系列的计算和私人养老基金比起来，就显得很不真实。私人养老基金的会计核算里是将养老金看作企业的负债，和其他的负债一样。毕竟，不管投资收益如何，法律规定养老金是必付的。因此，其折现率必须是以企业债务成本为基础。于企业而言，依照AA级企业债券的收益率。该收益率现在大约为3%，远低于公共养老部门养老金所假设的折现率，因此私人养老金的负债会非常高。因此面对多达224亿美金的空缺，通用电气最近冻结了2万名员工的养老金福利。
延伸阅读：GE冻结员工养老金https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge-freezing-pensions-for-20000-employees-2019-10-07
https://new.qq.com/omn/FIN20191/FIN2019100800017100.html
These different accounting approaches seem to imply that it is cheaper to fund a public-sector pension than a private-sector one. In reality, that cannot be the case. The public-sector pension deficit is therefore much larger than the $1.6trn estimated by the crr. It is hard to be precise about how much larger, but the accounts of troubled schemes give some indication.
这些不同的会计处理方式似乎意味着公共部门设立养老金比私人部门成本更低。然而事实并非如此。公共部门养老金的赤字远高于CRR预计的1.6万亿美金。具体超过多少还难有精确数字，但那些陷入困境的养老金计划多少说明了一些问题。
The Chicago Teachers scheme has a shortfall of $13.4bn, and a funding ratio of 47.9% on the basis of an assumed return of 6.8%. Its financial report reveals that a one-percentage-point fall in the discount rate would increase the deficit by $3bn. The private-sector accounting approach would lower the discount rate by around four percentage points.
芝加哥教师养老金计划面临的资金空缺多达134亿，在假设收益率为6.8%的情况下，其资金提存比率为47.9%。其财报显示每降低1%的折现率则会增加30亿美金的资金空缺；而私人部门的会计核算方式会将折现率降低大概4个百分点。
This is a crisis no one wants to solve, at least not quickly. The Chicago Teachers scheme is aiming for 90% funding, but not until 2059—long after many retired members will have died. New Jersey’s teachers’ scheme is not scheduled to be fully funded until 2048. Such promises might as well be dated “the 12th of never”. The bill for taxpayers seems certain to rise substantially. For the states with the biggest pension holes, political conflict is in store.
这是一个没人想要解决的危机，至少不想快速解决。芝加哥教师养老金计划正致力于提高资金提存比率至90%，但需要到2059年才能实现，而彼时很多退休成员可能已经去世。新泽西州教师养老金计划则是规划至2048年才可以达到100%资金到位。这类承诺还不如叫做“不会到来的12号”。纳税人的账单大概率会总体上升。对于那些养老金计划缺口已极其严重的州，政治冲突已在酝酿中。
注："The Twelfth of Never" is a popular song written in 1956 and first recorded by Johnny Mathis the following year. The title is a popular expression, which is used as the date of a future occurrence that will never come to pass. 寓意一件事永远不会发生的日期
翻译组：
Leon, 男，金融专业研究生，经济学人铁粉
Vivifang，女，外币债券交易员，经济学人粉丝
Ashley，女，金融硕士，爱宠物 爱英语，爱旅游，经济学人粉丝
Summer（琚儿），女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐 /健康走天涯
校对组：
Emily，食物链底端金融民工，经济学人粉丝
Martina，女，谷歌广告从业者，爱电影爱生活，爱金融经济
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观点|评论|思考
本期感想
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
欧美的养老金分成DB Plan（defined-benefit）和DC Plan（defined-contribution）。前者是指你交一定的钱退休之后会有一个确定的数额的退休金返还给你，后者是指你交一定的钱之后看养老基金打理钱的能力，你退休之后得到的数额不定，取决于pension funds的投资能力。
所以哪种plan给员工的福利更好呢？答案是DB plan，你必须为员工退休之后的退休金也买单而且分毫不能少，而DC你每个月交完就可以了，员工退休之后事情就与我无关了。在欧美大多数是DB plan，在中国全是DC plan。因为DB plan变得越来越不可持续，现在欧美国家也开始慢慢回到DC plan。
对员工来说是更优渥的待遇，对企业来说就是更沉重的负担。因为每个员工退休之后都要领可能25年的退休金，于是只要把这25年的每笔退休金折现求和，就能得到今天的现值，再把每个员工的退休金现值加总，就得到了每年公司要为员工交的社保。这其中需要涉及不少精算假设，比如折现率比如员工预期寿命，而如果这些精算假设不切合实际情况，显然算出来的这个现值就会偏离以后实际需要的退休金，所以这个时候需要修改精算假设。比如美国人的人均寿命从上世纪80年代到现在在不断上升，那么当时企业在算在一个员工身上需要花多少退休金的时候显然就低估了，因为这个员工比假设的多活了20年，那么企业现在要多承担他这20年的退休金。而折现率也是同样的道理，当年80年代高通胀的年代里折现率也高，因为折现率高所以现值低所以当时交的社保少，但是发现这几十年来折现率变低了，所以需要的现值变多了，所以当时其实交少了。这些精算假设和现实不符的情况，原因是人口变化和经济发展的paradigm变了。但是无论如何现在养老金钱不够了，养老基金缺钱缺地离谱（虽然这在每个国家都是一个问题，而且中国养老金缺得更严重），怎么解决呢？再加重企业负担吗？这会降低员工开公司地意愿，也进而会影响到经济，而且其实企业地负担压力已经相当重了。那就只能削减负担，和员工商量减少他以后能拿到地退休金，因为对不起你能活得太久了，我压力太大了养不起你，能不能商量一下你退休以后每年少拿一点点？
在国内，养老基金缺钱的原因跟欧美完全不一样。在中国养老基金没钱也是让很多人担忧的事情，而且是缺钱到什么地步呢？今天退休老人拿的退休金就是现在年轻人存进去的社保。也就是养老基金基本上是没钱的，那么等到30年后这一大批人老去之后，因为中国人越来越不愿意生孩子，将来的年轻人/老年人比例会越来越低，显然不可能还是年轻人的社保钱给老年人坐退休金，这不可持续下去。两个月之前，财政部把自己下面的几大国有企业的股权划转到养老基金下面，从而养老基金一下子有钱了。但是这个方法治标不治本，主要还是要养老基金提高自己的投资能力。
而在美国，养老基金没钱政府财政部显然没有什么国有企业股份划转给全国人民，那么目前看起来只有DB 变成DC减轻企业负担这条路了。
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愿景
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