为什么说白银还会继续上涨？

As you can see in the following chart, silver appears to be on the mend with the price per ounce rising over the past few weeks, erasing much of the declines seen since fall of this year.

如下图所示，过去几周白银的价格似乎在上涨，每盎司的价格上涨，抵消了自今年秋天以来的大部分跌幅。

At present, I believe that silver is set to rally in both the short and long term. Specifically, I believe that the data is highly supportive of a trade over the next 1-12 months in silver and that buying now represents a solid opportunity.

目前，我认为白银短期和长期都将反弹。具体而言，我认为该数据高度支持未来1-12个月的白银交易，并且现在的买入提供了坚实的机会。

Silver Markets

To start this piece off, let's discuss a short-term catalyst which will likely impact the price of silver: seasonality. Put simply, silver has a history of clear seasonal patterns of returns and these patterns generally show that the start of a year is a strong time to buy the commodity.

首先，让我们讨论可能会影响白银价格的短期催化剂：季节性。简而言之，白银有明显的季节性回报模式，这些模式通常表明一年之初是购买该商品的好时机。

Source: Author's calculations of LMBA data

资料来源：作者对LMBA数据的计算

In this chart, I have calculated the historic odds that any given month saw a rise in the price of silver, using data since 1968. What the data clearly shows is that silver tends to have a very high probability of rallying in the first two months of the year while the rest of the year generally remains fairly subdued from a seasonal standpoint.

在此图表中，我使用1968年以来的数据计算了任何给定月份内白银价格上涨的历史可能性。数据清楚地表明，前两个月白银上涨的可能性很高。从季节的角度来看，今年的其余时间总体上还是比较柔和的。

Source: Author's calculations of LMBA data

资料来源：作者对LMBA数据的计算

To get an idea as per the magnitudes of price movements generally seen during the various months of the year, the above chart shows the historic average monthly changes in silver by month. Again, the trend is very clear in that January and February tend to be fairly strong months with history showing that simply buying January and February would return a little over 6% per year to shareholders. Note that this is simply an average return and some years will see higher or lower values.

为了根据一年中各个月份通常看到的价格变动幅度了解一个想法，上面的图表显示了白银每月的历史平均月度变化。同样，趋势非常明显，一月和二月往往是相当强劲的几个月，历史表明，仅购买一月和二月每年将为股东带来6％的回报。请注意，这仅仅是平均回报，有些年份的价值会更高或更低。

An interesting wrinkle in the above data is the skew of returns in January and February. What I mean by this is that historically speaking, when January and February rally, they do so by about 7% in each month. However, when they decline, they tend to only do so by around 3-4% in each month. In other words, from a historic data perspective, buying silver during these two months tends to result in a trade with upside nearly twice as large as potential downside. And when you consider that the odds favor upside in these months, buying during January and February makes for a sound trade.

上述数据中一个有趣的变化是一月和二月的收益率偏斜。我的意思是说，从历史上看，当一月和二月反弹时，它们每个月大约上升7％。但是，当它们下降时，它们往往每个月只会下降3-4％。换句话说，从历史数据的角度来看，在这两个月内购买白银往往会导致交易量几乎是潜在下行量的两倍。而且，当您认为这几个月的可能性较高时，一月和二月的买盘使交易良好。

Source: Author's calculations of LMBA data

资料来源：作者对LMBA数据的计算

In the above chart, I have calculated the cumulative return silver holders would have seen since 1968 trading purely on seasonality and during January and February. In recent decades this strategy has performed incredibly well with shareholders not seeing much drawdown since 1994.

在上面的图表中，我计算了自1968年以来纯银持有者在纯粹的季节性交易以及一月和二月期间所看到的累计收益。在最近的几十年中，自1994年以来，股东们并没有看到太多亏损，这一策略的表现非常出色。

I believe this strategy is capturing a key phenomenon in markets: rebalancing. Specifically, while it is nearly impossible to prove or demonstrate empirically, I believe that investors tend to periodically rebalance their portfolios during strategic times of the year. For example, the start of the year can be a period in which investors change holdings to align with existing or new investment objectives. And in my opinion, this rebalancing is what is driving the above relationship: investors buy silver at an above-average pace at the start of the year to change portfolio holdings and this aggregate purchase gives fuel to the first part of the year.

我相信这种策略正在捕捉市场中的关键现象：再平衡。具体来说，虽然几乎不可能凭经验证明或证明，但我认为投资者倾向于在一年的战略时期内定期重新平衡其投资组合。例如，年初可以是投资者改变持股以符合现有或新投资目标的时期。在我看来，这种再平衡是推动上述关系的因素：投资者在年初以高于平均水平的速度购买白银，以改变投资组合的持有量，而这种购买总额为今年上半年提供了动力。

This said however, I also believe that we will see silver trade higher over more of 2021 due to recent and rising market volatility.

这就是说，但我也相信，由于近期和不断上升的市场动荡，我们将看到白银交易在2021年的大部分时间里会更高。

Source: TradingView

资料来源：TradingView

It's no secret to most market participants that 2020 has been a very volatile year. Earlier this year we witnessed one of the largest run-ups in the VIX ever seen and recent weeks have had the VIX rise up to around 40.

对于大多数市场参与者而言，2020年是非常不稳定的一年，这已不是什么秘密。今年早些时候，我们目睹了有史以来VIX规模最大的一次攀升，最近几周VIX的涨幅已高达40左右。

From silver's perspective, it is important to understand what a spike in the VIX represents to investor psychology. What I mean by this is that when the VIX spikes, it tends to do so in association with a drop in the S&P 500.

从白银的角度来看，重要的是要了解VIX的飙升对投资者心理的影响。我的意思是，当VIX飙升时，它往往与标普500指数下跌相关。

Source: Author's calculations of Kinetick data

资料来源：作者对Kinetick数据的计算

When the S&P 500 falls, equity traders tend to look for safer alternatives of which silver (and gold) tend to be the first investment options. This influx of capital doesn't happen immediately but the market data shows that a clear trend of higher silver prices can be observed in the year following spikes in the VIX.

当标普500指数下跌时，股票交易者往往会寻找更安全的替代方案，其中白银（和黄金）往往是首选的投资选择。资金的涌入不会立即发生，但市场数据显示，在VIX飙升之后的一年中，可以观察到白银价格明显上涨的趋势。

Source: Author's calculations of FRED and LMBA data

资料来源：作者对FRED和LMBA数据的计算

The above chart shows the historic 1-year returns following VIX spikes of a certain magnitude. If you notice, there is a very clear jump in the data when the VIX rises over 30. Historically speaking, when the VIX reaches over this amount, returns in silver tend to be pronounced to the upside.

上图显示了在一定幅度的VIX飙升之后的历史性1年期收益。如果您注意到，当VIX升至30以上时，数据将发生非常明显的跳跃。从历史上看，当VIX超过此数量时，白银收益率往往表现为上行。

Not only are returns pronounced to the upside, but the odds of upside movements in silver tend to rise as well. For example, when the VIX is between 30-45, market data shows that there's about a 73-83% chance that silver will rally over the next year. Given that the VIX hit 30 over the last 24 hours and given that November started off with the VIX reaching up to around 40, this would be highly supportive of a trade in silver over the next 11-12 months with historic data showing average returns of 23-32% in the year following such spikes.

不仅收益显着上升，而且白银上升趋势的几率也趋于上升。例如，当VIX在30-45之间时，市场数据显示，明年白银上涨的可能性约为73-83％。鉴于VIX在过去24小时内达到了30点，并且鉴于11月开始时VIX达到了40点左右，这将在未来11-12个月大力支持白银交易，历史数据显示，在此类峰值之后的一年中，有23-32％。

Conclusion

Put simply, I believe that short-term and long-term variables are supportive of silver at this time. Seasonality is likely to push silver higher over the next 1-2 months while investors shifting capital from equities into safe havens will also give further uplift to prices. It's a great time to buy silver.

简而言之，我认为目前的短期和长期变量都支持白银。季节性可能会在未来1-2个月内推高白银，而投资者将资本从股票转移到避风港也将进一步抬高价格。这是购买白银的好时机。