TE||Walmart fights back
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Walmart fights back
沃尔玛强势回归
本文英文部分选自经济学人Business版块
Walmart fights back
沃尔玛强势回归
The beast of Bentonville battles Amazon, the king of the e-commerce jungle
本顿维尔（沃尔玛总部所在地）的巨兽来袭，挑战电商丛林里的王者-亚马逊
A boa constrictor swallowing capitalism. A cyclone dragging the economy into its vortex. If you look back at how people described Walmart a decade ago, it is eerily similar to how Amazon is viewed now. The supermarket chain has “a scale of economic power we haven’t encountered before”, warned “The Walmart Effect”, a best-selling book in 2006. But capitalism never stands still. The world’s largest company by sales is now the perceived underdog in an escalating grocery war with Amazon to fill 320m American bellies. The struggle will probably end in a messy stalemate. That will mean mediocre returns for investors—and happy days for consumers.
有一条蟒蛇正在吞噬资本主义。一股飓风正把美国经济推上风口浪尖。如果回顾下十年前人们对沃尔玛的评论,你会发现与人们现在对亚马逊的评价出奇的相似。2006出版的一本畅销书便提醒人们警惕“沃尔玛效应”，认为这个连锁超市有一股我们从未遇到的经济实力。但是资本主义市场从未停滞不前。如今，这家全球销售额最大的公司为了争夺美国本土的有3.2亿消费者市场，与亚马逊陷入了一场不断升级的食品大战中，并被认为处于下风。这场争夺战可能以混乱的局面收尾。这就意味着投资者的回报平平，而对消费者来说却是值得庆祝的日子（有竞争就有低价）。
Just when Walmart’s aura was at its most intimidating, in 2006, stagnation beckoned. Its reputation for bullying its suppliers and staff became toxic. Over the next decade it hit saturation point. About 95% of Americans shop at Walmart at least once a year. It has three square feet of shop space for every adult in the country and has sunk $83bn into a fixed-asset base that is the fourth-largest owned by any American firm. Investors have worried for years that this empire of aisles and tills run from Bentonville, Arkansas, would become obsolete—what did Walmart’s executives, schooled in the arts of beating up baked-beans suppliers, know about the slick world of e-commerce being dreamed up in Silicon Valley and Seattle?
2006年，正值沃尔玛势不可挡的时期，麻烦随之而来。欺凌供应商和员工的消息让沃尔玛臭名远扬。在接下去的十年里，沃尔玛销售达到饱和。约有95%的美国人，每年至少去沃尔玛购物一次。沃尔玛为全国的每个人提供3平方英尺的购物空间，其固定资产高达830亿美元，在美国各大公司中排位第4。多年来，投资者们一直担心这个发家于阿肯色州本顿维尔，布满了通道和收银机的帝国会过气。而沃尔玛高层们除了知道如何压榨烘豆供应商以外，对初创于硅谷和西雅图的电商能懂个啥？
More than you might think. This year Walmart’s shares have risen by40% on hopes that it has more than a fighting chance. It is clear that selling groceries online is very different from selling books. In food, penetration of e-commerce is low, at 2%, compared with 9% for all retail. Food is perishable. People will not Stuffit in their mouths unless they trust its provenance. They also want flexibility—to buy food in a store, to order online and pick it up themselves, or to have it delivered to their homes. So some physical infrastructure is helpful. “I wouldn’t want another set of assets,” Doug McMillon, Walmart’s boss, told the Economic Club of New York in November.
他们懂的可能比你想象的多一些。今年沃尔玛股价上涨了40%，因为它希望得到不止一次的反击机会。显然，在网上销售百货和线上售书有很大不同。食品在电商业务中占据的份额很低，只有2%，但在全部零售业务中却拥有9%的份额。食品很容易腐败，如果人们不了解食品出处，就不会塞进嘴里。而且，人们希望购买方式多一点灵活性，既可以直接去门店采购食品，也可以在网上下单，选择门店自提或送货上门。所以一些实体店会很有帮助。沃尔玛的老板董明伦（Doug McMillon）11月曾向纽约经济俱乐部表示：“我并不想另外的资产集（实体店）。”
He has run Walmart’s businesses in Europe and Asia, where ecommerce for groceries is more developed. In 2016 Walmart spent $3bn buying Jet.com, an e-commerce firm whose boss,Marc Lore , now runs all Walmart’s online operations. Walmart has launched internet-based services such as “Easy reorder” and “Pickup discount” and formed a partnership with Latch, which lets its users open and lock their front doors remotely. On September 29th it acquired Parcel, a logistics startup. On December 6th it changed its legal name from Walmart Stores, to just Walmart.
沃尔玛在欧洲和亚洲的业务都由他管理，百货的线上销售在这两个大洲更为发达。2016年，沃尔玛斥资30亿美元收购电商公司Jet.com，现在它的老板马克·劳尔（Marc Lore）负责运营沃尔玛所有的线上业务。沃尔玛发布了基于互联网的服务项目，比如“（便捷重购）Easy reorder”和“（自提折扣）Pickup discount”，并与Latch公司合作，以便用户可以远程开关自家的前门。9月29日，沃尔玛收购了一家物流创业公司Parcel，并于12月6日把法定名称沃尔玛百货（Walmart Stores）改为沃尔玛（Walmart）。
1.Easy reorder（便捷重购）：该服务将消费者线上线下的购买记录整合，列出消费者最常购买的商品，包括商品的品牌和尺寸，让消费者在电脑或沃尔玛App再次订购时更方便。顾客登录沃尔玛网站时，Easy Reorder会自动列出购买记录及可供购买的商品。
2.Pickup discount（自提折扣）：沃尔玛为了鼓励用户线上下单线下取，凡线上下单后选择门店自提的用户，都会获得相应折扣。
There are three reasons to be optimistic. First, Walmart’s performance has improved. In the most recent quarter, same-store sales rose by 2.7% year on year, and store traffic by 1.5%. Food sales increased at their fastest pace in six years. Sales from e-commerce represent only about 2% of the total but are rising at an annual rate of 50% (customers who shop online and in stores typically spend twice as much as those who only go to stores). Walmart has the second-most-downloaded retail app, after Amazon’s.
有三个乐观的理由。第一，沃尔玛的业绩得到了提升。最近一个季度，同店销售额同比增长2.7%，客流量增长1.5%。食品销售以六年来最快的速度增长。电子商务的销售额仅占总数的2%，但每年的增长率为50%（既在网上购物又在商店里购物的顾客通常花费的金额是那些只去商店购物的人的两倍）。沃尔玛的零售应用APP下载排名第二，仅次于亚马逊。
Second, Amazon’s behaviour is a backhanded compliment. In June it spent $14bn on Whole Foods, a mid-sized grocery chain, The deal brings Amazon more physical locations to sell, sort and dispatch goods. It also gives it trusted private-label brands, of the kind Walmart already has. If you type “spinach” into Amazon.com, bags of Whole Foods branded greenery appear.
第二，亚马逊的行为是一种间接的恭维。今年6月，该公司斥资140亿美元收购了一家中等规模的杂货连锁店全食超市(Whole Foods)，该交易给亚马逊带来了更多的实体店来销售、分类和发货。这也给了亚马逊值得信赖的自有品牌，就像沃尔玛已经拥有的那用。如果你在亚马逊网站上输入“菠菜”，就会出现很多全食品牌的绿植。
如何评价亚马逊以137亿美元的价格收购全食超市
https://www.zhihu.com/question/61183485
Lastly, the example of China points to a fusion of the online and physical worlds. In some ways the country is more advanced than America; e-commerce comprises 9% of grocery sales, according to Alliance Bernstein, a research firm. On November 20th Alibaba, an e-commerce giant, bought 36% of Sun Art Retail, a hypermarket retailer. Four of the six biggest Chinese supermarket chains have partnerships with e-commerce platforms. (Walmart, which has424 stores in China, has teamed up with JD.com.)
最后，中国的例子指出了线上和线下世界的融合。在某些方面，中国比美国更先进;根据研究公司安联伯恩斯坦（Alliance Bernstein）的数据，电子商务占食品杂货销售额的9%。11月20日，电子商务巨头阿里巴巴收购了超市零售商高鑫零售36%的股份。中国最大的六家连锁超市中，已经有四家与电子商务平台建立了合作关系。（沃尔玛在中国有424家门店，也已经与京东开展合作。）
如何评价阿里巴巴 224亿港元入股高鑫零售？
https://www.zhihu.com/question/68374312
The duel between Walmart and Amazon could go in two directions. It might escalate into a war across America, for both companies hate losing. Or each firm might conquer different geographical areas and demographic groups. Amazon could seize well-to-do cities, where population density is high and home delivery is more efficient. Walmart could continue to rule suburbia.
沃尔玛和亚马逊的竞争可能导致两种结果。第一，这可能会升级为一场横跨美国的战争，因为两家公司都不愿意输掉这场战争。第二，二者各自征服不同的地区和消费人群。亚马逊能“征服”相对富裕的城市，因为这些城市人口密度大而且快递服务效率更高；而沃尔玛能继续“一统”城郊地区。
Either way, margins will probably be squeezed as Amazon throws money at the fight with its customary abandon. Mr McMillon knows this. “One of the challenges at Walmart is that we don’t have free money—we are expected to make a profit,” he says. The danger is that it overestimates how much physical presence it needs. If it went back to its position in 2006, it could cut its domestic asset base by34% and still have 90% of Americans within 15 miles of a store. For every dollar of sales, it has twice as many square feet of sales and distribution space as Amazon’s retail operation (including Whole Foods). If Mr McMillon is brave he will sell store sand return capital to investors. Walmart needs to make its balance-sheet leaner.
无论哪一种结果，利润空间很可能都将缩减，因为亚马逊在其传统真空区(即线下实体店)投入更多资金。沃尔玛的CEO董明伦先生也这样认为，他说：“沃尔玛的挑战之一是我们没有富余资金-市场期待我们可以创造更高利润”。沃尔玛的风险是高估了它自身所需要的实体店数量。假如回到其2006年的市占率，沃尔玛可以将其国内资产减少34%却同时能保持90%的美国购物者在其住所附近不到15英里处（约合24千米）找到沃尔玛连锁店。对比亚马逊的零售业务（包括全食超市-亚马逊收购的实体超市），沃尔玛每销售一美金货物需要2倍于亚马逊的实体店面积（平方英尺）和配送空间（平方英尺）。假如董明伦足够勇敢，他可以出售一些实体超商，同时回馈投资者。沃尔玛需要为其资产负债表瘦身。
What’s in store for Amazon
前方等待着亚马逊的是什么？
Walmart is probably the most formidable adversary Amazon has ever faced. Disrupting the music, book and media industries, each known for their Corinthian spirit and long lunches, was child’s play compared with taking on Walmart, with its fanatical commitment to low prices.
沃尔玛可能是亚马逊有史以来最强大的对手。扰乱音乐、图书和媒体行业，每个行业都以科林斯式的精神和漫长的午餐时间而闻名，但与沃尔玛疯狂的低价承诺相比，这些都是小儿科。
Walmart’s history is also a warning. If you examine the two companies’ financials, Amazon today looks almost identical to Walmart in 1999. It has annual salesof$160bn or so, low margins, fast growth, a ballooning asset base and massive capital investment. The firm’s managers are on a high and investors have dizzying expectations for the future. But for the ten years after 1999, Walmart’s share price was as flat as a pancake, because all the good news was already baked in. The actual business of world domination turned out to be a long, hard slog.
沃尔玛的历史也是一个警告。如果你仔细研究两家公司的财务状况，亚马逊现在看起来几乎和1999年的沃尔玛是完全一样。它的年销售额达到1600亿美元左右，利润率低，增长迅速，资产规模膨胀，获得大量的资本青睐。该公司的经理们沉浸于成功的欢乐感，投资者对未来的期望很高。但在1999年之后的10年里，沃尔玛的股价就像煎饼一样平，因为所有的好消息都已经出炉了。事实证明，做支配世界的生意本身就是一个漫长而艰难的过程。
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观点 |评论|思考
文章主要还是将沃尔玛和亚马逊做了对比，文章认为沃尔玛可能是亚马逊有史以来最强大的对手，主要是因为沃尔玛的低价承诺。在六月份经济学人的一篇文中:
https://www.economist.com/news/business/21723868-buying-upscale-grocer-new-front-battle-beast-bentonville-amazons
当时亚马逊宣布收购全食，文章对于沃尔玛（2016年考虑收购全食）和亚马逊收购的利弊分析了下，在最后一段写到
For Walmart, and many other rivals, the best scenario would be if regulators were to slow Amazon’s expansion. The company accounts for about half of new spending online in America. It has reached into many parts of the economy, from retail to cloud computing and from entertainment to advertising. Yet intervention is improbable. The Whole Foods deal gives Amazon less than one-fiftieth of the grocery market. Walmart, were it to make Whole Foods a higher offer, by contrast, would be very likely to attract regulators’ wrath. In such circumstances, Walmart could be forgiven a severe attack of sour grapes.
大概意思就是作者认为减缓亚马逊扩张最好的方法是监管层面的反垄断监管，因为亚马逊已经占据了美国人网上消费的一半市场，而且渗透到了生活的方方面面，从零售到云计算，从娱乐到广告业务等等，但是干预貌似不大可能。全食的交易额只占亚马逊的零售市场份额的五十分之一不到。相反，如果沃尔玛提高全食收购价格，那很可能会吸引监管者的愤怒。在这种情况下，沃尔玛只能眼睁睁的将全食拱手相让的酸葡萄心理就可以理解了。
当然沃尔玛和亚马逊的布局都是现在最火的概念之一：新零售，即线上加线下。国内阿里和腾讯也是一直动作不断。具体看下图（图中少了一项最新的阿里巴巴244亿的入局高鑫零售，成为其第二大股东）
图片节选自公众号：聪聪说零售
尽管腾讯和阿里都布局了新零售，但是始终有一块领域的新零售增长特别缓慢，生鲜新零售，生鲜最主要的是品质要新鲜。跨境电商火了一年多，但是生鲜国内外相差那么大，为什么涉足的企业相对不多呢? 其中除了食品卫生许可以外，运输是一个大问题，冷链物流无法保证这么长路途的运输品质等得到保证，而且生鲜价格一般都较贵，所以一旦出问题，损失特别大。
再回到国内，不知道大家有没有在网上买过水果，海鲜之类的经历，小编曾经在淘宝上尝试过几次，购买过草莓，樱桃，螃蟹，龙虾等生鲜，但体验感特别不好，主要是当这些东西寄到的时候，发现很多都因为路上的磕碰引起腐烂发臭等，所以生鲜的其中一个痛点是如何保证点对点途中食品的品质，包装可以解决一部分水果的运输问题，比如现在淘宝买的苹果都是一个个真空充气包装，不会引起磕碰，但是有些水果，比如草莓，樱桃这些不可能这样去包装，还有很多海鲜会因为温度以及含氧量变化导致死亡，因此像这类产品最好的方式还是实体店购买，这应该也是河马鲜生之类存在的理由之一吧。
记得很久以前的一次英语角讨论的话题就是：商场会被电商取代吗？当时小编就认为不会被取代, 如果被取代了，那年轻人去哪里聚餐？当然这是玩笑话，小编预计未来商场生存之道：除了餐饮，游乐场以外，大多数服装店都将是体验店，面积会非常大，主要作用就是体验而已，因为衣服需要试穿才知道合不合适，而且每件衣服上会有一个二维码，我们试穿完扫码支付完成，他们就会在第一时间把衣服给您送到家。
那么也许你会问超市会被电商取代吗？小编的答案是：也不会。现在看到的是各个电商公司纷纷入股超市，主要是打通线上线下，这在今天这篇文章中也有提及，客户可以选择线上购买快递配送，或者线上购买，线下自取等多种选择。而且超市的另外一个作用是体验那种逛的感觉，尤其是很多时候可以带着老人，小孩去溜达一圈，消磨时间，这和商场作用类似。
所以说新零售肯定是未来发展的趋势，让我们拭目以待吧。
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