【新刊速递】Security Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1, 2021 / 四六文摘

期刊简介

《安全研究》(Security Studies)收录并出版具有创新性的学术稿件——无论是理论研究、实践经验分享还是两者兼而有之。安全研究包含广泛的议题，涵盖核扩散、核威慑、军民关系、战略文化、种族冲突、流行病与国家安全、民主政治、外交决策以及定性与多方法研究的发展。根据Journal Citation Reports显示，其2019年的影响因子为2.167。

本期编委

【编译】杨紫茵聂涵琳常佳艺胡可怡李源

【校对】聂涵琳胡可怡杨紫茵李源常佳艺

【审核】常佳艺胡可怡杨紫茵聂涵琳

【排版】韩柯

【美编】李九阳

本期目录

1. 共和国的沙漠盾牌？放弃中东的一个现实主义案例

Desert Shield of the Republic? A Realist Case for Abandoning the Middle East

2. 更多疑问：RT、对外宣传与后西方世界秩序

Questioning More: RT, Outward-Facing Propaganda,and the Post-West World Order

3. 违禁品运输：各国如何塑造国际走私路线

Channeling Contraband: How States Shape International Smuggling Routes

4. 哈里发国之后的恐怖：ISIS失去对人口中心的控制对全球恐怖主义模式的影响

Terror after the Caliphate: The Effect of ISIS Loss of Control over Population Centers on Patterns of Global Terrorism

5.控制身体与领土：叛乱分子的领土控制与性暴力

Control over Bodies and Territories: Insurgent Territorial Control and Sexual Violence

共和国的沙漠盾牌？放弃中东的一个现实主义案例

【题目】Desert Shield of the Republic? A Realist Case for Abandoning the Middle East

【作者】David Blagden，埃克塞特大学高级讲师；Patrick Porter，伯明翰大学教授。

【摘要】政治现实主义者对美国应该在中东“做什么”和“成为什么”有不同看法。所有人都对改变该地区的过度的地缘政治规划表示怀疑。但是，他们在对于为了在海湾国家及其周边维持霸权而投入大量人员和财力是否值得的问题上意见不一。霸权的“首要现实主义”认为，如果承诺是有效的且可负担的，华盛顿就应该留下来稳定该地区，以确保一个有利的集中权力。但是，另有一种“共和国盾牌”式的现实主义认为追求在中东的武装至高无上的地位是在伤害国内的政治秩序，减少安全感而不是提升安全感，而且代价太高，收获太少。这涉及的利益要么可以通过离开该区域而使其变得可控，要么在很大程度因中东而形成。本文展示了后一种立场，指出难驾驭的海湾国家对美国的国家安全来说越来越次要。该地区正在失去其大战略上的显著性，复杂的和持续的战争损害了共和党人的自由，关于持续霸权是否“值得”的考量已经果断地走向负面。是时候放弃了。

Political realists disagree on what America should “do” and “be” in the Middle East. All are skeptical toward extravagant geopolitical projects to transform the region. Yet they differ over whether hegemony in the Gulf and its wider environs are worth the substantial investment of blood and treasure. Hegemonic “primacy realism” finds the commitment effective and affordable, and that Washington should stay to stabilize the region to ensure a favorable concentration of power. There is an alternative “shield of the republic” realism, however, which views the pursuit of armed supremacy in the Middle East as harming political order at home, reducing security more than generating it, and costing too much for too little gain. It involves interests that are either manageable from a remove or largely generated by being there in the first place. In this article, we lay out the latter position, arguing that the unruly Gulf is increasingly peripheral to US national interests. The region is losing its salience grand strategically, entanglement and continuous war damage republican liberties, and the calculus of whether continued hegemony is “worth it” has shifted decisively toward the downside. The time for abandonment has come.

【编译】杨紫茵

【校对】聂涵琳

【审核】常佳艺

更多疑问：RT、对外宣传与后西方世界秩序

【题目】Questioning More: RT, Outward-Facing Propaganda,and the Post-West World Order

【作者】Erin Baggott Carter，南加州大学政治科学和国际关系系助理教授；Brett L. Carter，南加州大学政治科学与国际关系系助理教授。

【摘要】

外国对手的宣传策略能否对目标国家的国内舆论产生影响？对该问题，本文构建了一个理论框架以理解国家的外宣工作，并认为相比对国内事务的看法，人们对外交事务的看法更容易受到他国外宣的影响。经验层面上，本文以RT（前身为今日俄罗斯，俄罗斯政府于2005年创建的媒体平台）为主要观察对象，在对RT的报道内容进行梳理与分析之后，探究该媒体机构的曝光新闻能否对其美国受众产生影响。结果显示，这些新闻报道有百分之十至二十的可能促使美国受众支持美国放弃全球合作领袖地位。这种影响效应在各个方面都很显著，并且跨越了党派界限。即使在RT由俄罗斯政府资助的政治背景被公开披露之后，上述效应也仍然存在。但RT对美国民众关于国内政治以及俄罗斯政府的看法没有影响。

Can propaganda produced by foreign adversaries shape public opinion in a target country? We develop a theoretical framework to understand outward-facing propaganda, which many autocrats employ to shape public opinion abroad. We argue that beliefs about foreign affairs are more susceptible to outward-facing propaganda than beliefs about domestic conditions. Empirically, we focus on RT (formerly Russia Today), a media platform the Russian government founded in 2005. After characterizing its content, we ask whether exposure to RT influences the beliefs of American consumers. Exposure to RT, we find, induces respondents to support America withdrawing from its role as a cooperative global leader by 10–20 percentage points. This effect is robust across measures, obtains across party lines, and persists even when we disclose that RT is financed by the Russian government. RT has no effect on Americans’ views of domestic politics or the Russian government.

【编译】胡可怡

【校对】李源

【审核】常佳艺

违禁品运输：各国如何塑造国际走私路线

【题目】Channeling Contraband: How States Shape International Smuggling Routes

【作者】Max Gallien，萨塞克斯大学发展研究所和国际税收与发展中心研究员；Florian Weigand，伦敦政治经济学院冲突与公民社会研究中心研究员。

【摘要】

虽然走私通常被认为发生在偏远和难以进入的边境地区，但实际上走私在国家严格控制的地区最为普遍，包括在官方的边境口岸。为了解开这一难题，本文探讨了国家与国际边境走私者之间的关系。基于对北非和东南亚不同边境地区大量的实证研究，本文认为不同类型的走私者偏好与国家建立不同类型的关系。本文概述了此类关系的六种理想类型。本文指出这些类型的关系是不同的走私网络选择边境沿线路线的主导因素。这些发现对我们理解走私和旨在解决走私问题的政策，特别是其中有关边境防御工事和预防腐败影响的政策，具有重要意义。

Although smuggling is commonly assumed to happen in remote and difficult-to-access borderlands, in reality, smuggling is most prevalent in areas that states tightly control, including at formal border crossings. To understand this puzzle, this article explores the relationship between states and smugglers at international borders. Based on extensive empirical research in various borderlands in North Africa and Southeast Asia, it argues that different kinds of smugglers prefer different types of relationships with the state. The article outlines six ideal types of such relationships. It contends that these types of relationships are the dominant factor in how different smuggling networks choose routes along a border. The findings have implications for our understanding of smuggling and policies that aim at addressing smuggling, especially regarding the effects of border fortifications and corruption prevention.

【编译】聂涵琳

【校对】杨紫茵

【审核】胡可怡

哈里发国之后的恐怖：ISIS失去对人口中心的控制对全球恐怖主义模式的影响

【题目】Terror after the Caliphate: The Effect of ISIS Loss of Control over Population Centers on Patterns of Global Terrorism

【作者】James A. Piazza，宾夕法尼亚州立大学教授；Ahmet Guler，宾夕法尼亚州立大学犯罪学助理教授。

【摘要】学者们认为，伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国（ISIS）在失去对构成其自称的 “哈里发国”的伊拉克和叙利亚主要人口中心的控制后，对此的回应方式是将其恐怖暴力模式国际化，在国外实施更高调的袭击，并充分利用在他国的宗派冲突。在这项研究中，作者检验了这种传统观点，并从理论层面上说明人口中心的丧失促使ISIS在国外进行更多的攻击、将其攻击地点转移到国外并在国外造成更大的伤亡。利用ISIS对主要城市控制的原始时间序列数据，作者为其理论假设提供了实证支持。

Experts opine that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) responded to its loss of control over major population centers in Iraq and Syria that constituted its self-described “caliphate” by internationalizing its patterns of terrorist violence, committing higher-profile attacks abroad, and exploiting sectarian conflicts in other countries. In this study, we test this conventional wisdom. We theorize that the loss of population centers prompted ISIS to conduct more attacks abroad, to shift its attack venues abroad, and to cause higher casualties abroad. Using original time series data on ISIS control over major cities, we find empirical support for our theoretical assumptions.

【编译】常佳艺

【校对】李源

【审核】杨紫茵

控制身体与领土：叛乱分子的领土控制与性暴力

【题目】Control over Bodies and Territories: Insurgent Territorial Control and Sexual Violence

【作者】Victor Asal，纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校教授；Robert U. Nagel，乔治敦大学妇女、和平与安全研究所博士后研究员。

【摘要】尽管流行“强奸是一种战争武器”的说法，但研究表明，只有少数叛乱团体在武装冲突中实施了性暴力。本文认为，领土控制是一个被忽视的因素，它会增加一个团体实施性暴力的可能性，主要有两个原因：第一，寻求建立领土控制的叛乱团体更有可能实施性暴力；第二，寻求维持领土控制的团体通过暴力地控制人口资本、性资本和生殖资本来模仿国家行为，具体表现为强迫招募和不同形式的性暴力, 包括强奸和性奴役。借助武装冲突中的性暴力（SVAC）以及大联盟和危险叛乱分子II（BAADI2）数据库，本文系统地检验了上述论点。检验结果为该论点提供了有力的支持，有利于我们进一步了解与冲突有关的性暴力和叛乱统治。

Despite the popular narrative of “rape as a weapon of war,” research shows that only a minority of insurgent groups perpetrate sexual violence in armed conflict. We argue that territorial control is an overlooked factor that can increase the likelihood a group commits sexual violence for two primary reasons: (1) rebel groups seeking to establish control over territory are more likely to commit sexual violence; and (2) groups seeking to maintain territorial control emulate state behavior through violently controlling human, sexual, and reproductive capital, which manifests in forced recruitment and different forms of sexual violence, including rape and sexual slavery. We systematically test this argument using the Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC) and the Big Allied and Dangerous Insurgent II (BAADI2) datasets. The results provide robust support for the argument. This constitutes an important addition to our understanding of conflict-related sexual violence and rebel governance.

【编译】李源

【校对】胡可怡

【审核】聂涵琳

好好学习，天天“在看”

【新刊速递】Security Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1, 2021

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