美国正在经历历时最长的经济增长【经济学人精讲】第334期
文章导读
本文选自《经济学人》2019年7月13日文章。到目前为止，美国经济已经经历了121个月的连续增长，这是有记录以来，持续时间最长的经济增长，不过这反而让一些人更加担心，因为历史规律表明，经济衰退即将来临。但美国经济深层次的变化，使得美国如今的情况已经超过了以往历史的范畴。20世纪30年代的经济危机是由工业萧条或油价冲击造成，但现在制造业占GDP的11%，而服务业产出占70%。随着经济结构转向服务业和无形资产，经济增长虽然缓慢，但更稳定持久。房地产泡沫、价格飙升或工业萧条可能引发经济萧条，但现在，我们更应该担心全球互联的公司、痴迷于廉价资金的金融体系、以及玩弄极端政策的政治体系。
由于篇幅较长，本文节选原文标题和全文重点段落进行精讲，
选文精讲
Riding high 意气风发
America’s expansion is now the longest on record
美国的经济增长是有史以来最长的
What could bring it to an end?
什么能结束这一切?
Jul 11th 2019
AROUND THE world investors, businesses and central bankers are grappling with a startling fact: at the end of July America’s economy will have been growing for 121 months, the longest run since records began in 1854, according to the NBER, a research body. History suggests there will be a recession soon.
grapple with: 努力克服、应对
startling: 惊人的
世界各地的投资者、企业和中央银行家都在努力应对一个令人吃惊的事实：根据NBER(一家研究机构)的数据，到7月底，美国经济已经连续增长121个月，这是自1854年有记录以来持续时间最长的增长。历史表明，经济衰退即将来临。
And plenty of people are gloomy. Bond markets have been sounding the alarm, as long-term interest rates sink below short-term ones, often a harbinger of a downturn. Manufacturing firms are wary; indices of business confidence are tumbling. Yet equity investors are still buoyant. The stockmarket is going gangbusters, rising by 19% so far this year. And in June America’s economy created a whopping 224,000 new jobs, more than twice as many as needed to keep up with the growth of the workforce. The result is a puzzle that matters a great deal. America’s economy accounts for a quarter of global output, so if it stumbles the world will, too. But if it proves able to extend the cycle a lot longer, it may be time to rewrite the rules for how all rich economies behave.
harbinger: 预兆
tumble: 摔倒、翻滚；tumbling: 摔倒的，这里指“下跌”
buoyant: 上涨的、轻快的
gangbuster: 扫荡流氓的执法者，这里指“热情洋溢、大放异彩”
whopping: 巨大的
stumble: 蹒跚、使...绊倒，这里指“遭遇挫折”
很多人都很悲观。债券市场一直在拉响警报，因为长期利率低于短期利率，这往往是经济低迷的先兆。制造企业很谨慎;商业信心指数正在下跌，然而，股票投资者仍表现活跃。股票市场正在大放异彩，今年到目前为止上涨了19%。6月，美国经济创造了22.4万个新工作岗位，是满足劳动力增长需求的两倍多。（经济增长的）结果是一个非常重要的谜题。美国经济占全球产出的四分之一，因此，如果它遭遇挫折，世界也会遭殃。但如果事实证明它能够将（经济增长）周期延长得更长，或许是时候改写所有富裕经济体的行为规则了。
The conflicting signals reflect an unusually sluggish and stretched expansion. Some of that is to be expected after the worst financial crisis in 80 years, but as our briefing explains, it is also owing to deeper changes in America’s $21trn economy. Growth is slow but more stable as activity has shifted to services and intangible assets. Thanks to new regulations and the recent memory of the bust, there are few signs of wild mortgage lending, over-investment or reckless financial firms. Inflation is remarkably subdued. These forces mean that a placid expansion can continue well beyond historical norms, but also suggest that the way it will eventually end will be different. Recessions used to be triggered by housing bubbles, price surges or industrial busts. Now you should worry about globally interconnected firms, a financial system addicted to cheap money and a political system that is toying with extreme policies because living standards are not rising fast enough.
intangible asset: 无形资产
mortgage lending: 抵押贷款
subdue: 抑制
placid: 平和的、温和的
be toying with: 玩弄
这些相互矛盾的信号反映出经济增长异常缓慢和乏力。在经历了80年来最严重的金融危机之后，其中一些是可以预见的，但正如我们的简报所解释的，这也要归因于美国21万亿美元经济的更深层次的变化。随着经济活动转向服务业和无形资产，增长虽然缓慢，但更为稳定。由于新法规的出台以及近期对泡沫破裂的记忆，几乎没有迹象表明存在疯狂的抵押贷款、过度投资或不计后果的金融公司的现象。通货膨胀明显受到抑制。这些力量意味着，平和的扩张可以远远超出历史基准，但这也表明，其最终结果也会有所不同。过去，经济衰退是由房地产泡沫、价格飙升或工业萧条引发的。现在，你应该担心的是全球相互关联的公司，痴迷于廉价资金的金融体系，以及因为生活水平上升不够快，而玩弄极端政策的政治体系。