政观快递 | American Journal of Political Science Vol.63, No.04, 2019
期刊简介:《美国政治学杂志》（American Journal of Political Science, AJPS）致力于在公民身份、治理和政治等知识领域取得重大进展。作为中西部政治科学协会的官方期刊，AJPS发表所有政治学领域的相关研究，包括美国政治、公共政策、国际关系、比较政治学、政治学方法论和政治学理论等。根据2018年Journal Citation Reports显示，其2018年的影响因子为4.354，在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第2（2/176）。
期刊目录
1.温度是外生变量吗？非洲内战对于工具性气候记录的影响
Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa
2.外国公民与规范移民：污名化特征会影响拉美族裔对歧视的判断吗？
Alien Citizens and the Canonical Immigrant: Do Stigmatized Attributes Affect Latina/o Judgment about Discrimination?
3.继承制度影响了政治和社会的不平等吗？
Do Inheritance Customs Affect Political and Social Inequality?
4. 共和主义式自由、大众控制和集体行动
Republican Freedom, Popular Control, and Collective Action
5.用意识形态证成道德：政治信念预测道德基础
Ideology Justifies Morality: Political Beliefs Predict Moral Foundations
6.收看、不收看：评估族群电视台对政治参与的影响
Tuning In, Not Turning Out: Evaluating the Impact of Ethnic Television on Political Participation
7. 掌握正确事实如何强化政党支持者主导的推理
How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan-Motivated Reasoning
8. 维和人员与暴力犯罪：维和行动的意外影响
Peacekeepers against Criminal Violence—Unintended Effects of Peacekeeping Operations?
9.贫困和神恩：伊斯兰政党的选举优势
Poverty and Divine Rewards: The Electoral Advantage of Islamist Political Parties
10.话语型退出
Discursive Exit
11.当激进政党进入议会时选民会两极分化吗？
Do Voters Polarize When Radical Parties Enter Parliament?
12.政党的主要偏好：族裔、性别与议会主要候选人的政党支持
The Party's Primary Preferences: Race, Gender, and Party Support of Congressional Primary Candidates
13.导致选举权受限的选票改革：来自巴西第二共和国的证据
Ballot Reform as Suffrage Restriction: Evidence from Brazil's Second Republic
14.政治中的损失规避
Loss Aversion in Politics
15.坚定的民主人士还是有条件的民主人士？选举威权中反对派联盟的流变
Committed or Conditional Democrats? Opposition Dynamics in Electoral Autocracies
一、温度是外生变量吗？
非洲内战对于工具性气候记录的影响
题目：Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub‐Saharan Africa
作者：Kenneth A. Schultz，斯坦福大学政治学系教授；Justin S. Mankin，达特茅斯学院地理系助理教授
摘要：在关注气候对政治经济影响的研究中，短期的天气变化被假设为是外生因素。然而，在政府运营的天气观测站，其天气数据的质量和稳定性却可能受到国家政治能力和政治稳定性的影响。我们发现撒哈拉以南非洲的内战风险与天气观测站对国际气温数据观测的密度与数量呈负相关关系。这一影响既在同时期的不同国家中得到验证，即内战风险更高的国家气温数据的覆盖率越低；也在同一国家的不同时期得到体现，即内战风险导致了天气观测站的数据丢失。由于采用了插补方法，以及测量误差的增加，在一个被广泛使用的气温数据库中，低覆盖率的数据导致了一个较小的低估偏差，这潜在地削弱了气温和冲突之间关系的估计值。通过结合多个观测数据集来减少测量误差，我们对于气温数值异常与内战之间关系的估计值几乎翻了一番。
Research into the effects of climate on political and economic outcomes assumes that short‐term variation in weather is exogenous to the phenomena being studied. However, weather data are derived from stations operated by national governments, whose political capacity and stability affect the quality and continuity of coverage. We show that civil conflict risk in sub‐Saharan Africa is negatively correlated with the number and density of weather stations contributing to a country's temperature record. This effect is both cross‐sectional—countries with higher average conflict risk tend to have poorer coverage—and cross‐temporal—civil conflict leads to loss of weather stations. Poor coverage induces a small downward bias in one widely used temperature data set, due to its interpolation method, and increases measurement error, potentially attenuating estimates of the temperature–conflict relationship. Combining multiple observational data sets to reduce measurement error almost doubles the estimated effect of temperature anomalies on civil conflict risk.
二、外国公民与规范移民：
污名化特征会影响拉美族裔对歧视的判断吗？
题目：Alien Citizens and the Canonical Immigrant: Do Stigmatized Attributes Affect Latina/o Judgment about Discrimination?
作者：Bradford Jones，加州大学戴维斯分校社会科学系教授；Kristina Flores Victor，加州州立大学萨克拉门托分校助理教授；David Vannette，斯坦福大学传播学博士，脸书公司研究科学家
摘要：精英与新闻媒体对拉丁族裔议题的负面关注，特别在非法移民方面的关注，近年来快速增加。而这种负面关注可能会为拉丁族裔的移民地位和语言使用等特征蒙上污名。与此同时，移民政策的变迁导致了对拉丁族裔的大规模拘捕与驱逐。本文提出了两个问题：第一，拉丁族裔在多大程度上感知并经历了歧视？第二，移民身份、世代身份与语言使用在多大程度上塑造了其对歧视的看法？根据皮尤全国拉美族裔调查数据，本文发现拉美族裔对歧视问题的看法是一个关于”规范移民“的”邻近度“递减函数，这里的”规范移民“指的是以西班牙语为主的第一代移民。此外，本文证明了因歧视而受害的报导率并没有明显的规律，并且随时间的推移而趋于平稳。本文的结论是，歧视观念对系统性信任、焦虑和政策偏好有重大影响。
Negative elite and news media attention to Latino‐relevant issues, particularly undocumented immigration, has dramatically increased in recent years, potentially stigmatizing attributes of Latinos such as immigration status and language use. Concomitantly, immigration policy changes were leading to widespread arrests and deportation of many Latinos. Herein, we ask two questions: First, to what extent do Latinos perceive and experience discrimination? Second, to what extent do immigration status, generational status, and language use moderate beliefs about discrimination? Using Pew National Survey of Latinos data, we find that Latino beliefs about the problem of discrimination is a decreasing function of “proximity” to the “canonical immigrant”—defined here as first‐generation immigrants who are Spanish‐language dominant. Further, we demonstrate that reported rates of victimization due to discrimination exhibit no clear pattern and are flat over time. We conclude by demonstrating that discrimination beliefs have significant implications for systemic trust, anxiety, and policy preferences.
三、继承制度影响了政治和社会的不平等吗？
题目：Do Inheritance Customs Affect Political and Social Inequality?
作者：Anselm Hager，柏林洪堡大学社会科学学院国际政治专业助理教授。Hanno Hilbig，哈佛大学政府系博士生，哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院不平等与财富中心James M.与Cathleen D. Stone研究员
摘要：为什么一些社会比其他社会更不平等？法国的革命家认为，是子女中不平等的继承制度造就了古代国家严格的等级制。因此，为了实现平等，革命家必须推动平等的继承权利，他们的目标在于提高女性的权利并且剥夺贵族阶级的特权。但是平等的继承制度真的提高了社会竞争环境的公平性吗？德国各地因为在继承制度上有明显差异，其历史上就致力于平等分配财富的城市到今天选举了更多的女性进入议会，而且社会精英中的贵族也减少了，由此德国成为我们研究的对象。通过对这一历史数据的分析，本文提出关于财富平等与平等主义者偏好的两条机制。最后，本文也指出，与直觉相反的是，平等的继承制度对收入不平等有着正向预测关系。本文认为这些发现意味着平等的继承制度通过奖励才华而非提升社会地位来提高竞争环境的公平性。
Why are some societies more unequal than others? The French revolutionaries believed unequal inheritances among siblings to be responsible for the strict hierarchies of the ancient régime. To achieve equality, the revolutionaries therefore enforced equal inheritance rights. Their goal was to empower women and to disenfranchise the noble class. But do equal inheritances succeed in leveling the societal playing field? We study Germany—a country with pronounced local‐level variation in inheritance customs—and find that municipalities that historically equally apportioned wealth, to this day, elect more women into political councils and have fewer aristocrats in the social elite. Using historic data, we point to two mechanisms: wealth equality and pro‐egalitarian preferences. In a final step, we also show that, counterintuitively, equitable inheritance customs positively predict income inequality. We interpret this finding to mean that equitable inheritances level the playing field by rewarding talent, not status.
四、用意识形态证成道德：
政治信念预测道德基础
题目：Ideology Justifies Morality: Political Beliefs Predict Moral Foundations
作者： Peter K. Hatemi，宾夕法尼亚州立大学政治学系特聘教授、微生物学与生物化学教授；Charles Crabtree，维吉尼亚大学法学院讲师；Kevin Smith，内布拉斯加大学政治学系Leland J. 与 Dorothy H. 讲席教授、系主任
摘要：道德基础理论（ Moral Foundations Theory ，MTF）被用作对意识形态的因果解释，该理论认为政治态度是道德直觉的产物。然而，先前的理论提出了相反的因果解释路径，即道德判断为政治信念所驱动。但是这两种现存的研究都只是假设性的，而不是明确地检验其因果关系。所以，是道德直觉驱动了政治信念，抑或是政治信念驱动了道德直觉？通过两个小组研究数据和一个全国性代表研究数据，我们实证地解决了这个问题，并且找到了意识形态预测道德直觉的一致证据。这项发现对于MFT作为一种意识形态理论有着重大意义，并且也对政治信念形塑个人如何合理化对错的结果有重大意义。
Moral Foundations Theory (MFT) is employed as a causal explanation of ideology that posits political attitudes are products of moral intuitions. Prior theoretical models, however, suggest the opposite causal path, that is, that moral judgments are driven by political beliefs. In both instances, however, extant research has assumed rather than explicitly tested for causality. So do moral intuitions drive political beliefs or do political beliefs drive moral intuitions? We empirically address this question using data from two panel studies and one nationally representative study, and find consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that ideology predicts moral intuitions. The findings have significant implications for MFT as a theory of ideology, and also about the consequences of political beliefs for shaping how individuals rationalize what is right and what is wrong.
五、共和主义式自由、
大众控制和集体行动
题目：Republican Freedom, Popular Control, and Collective Action
作者：Sean Ingham，加州大学圣迭戈分校政治学系助理教授；Frank Lovett，华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校政治学系教授，法律研究主任
摘要：共和主义者认为，人们之所以会被支配，只是因为别人拥有不受限制的能力来阻碍他们的选择。他们进一步指出，除非被大众所控制，否则政府官员可能会支配民众。批评者们指出了一个困境。为了保持大众进行控制的可能性，共和主义者必须必须赋予人们控制政府官员的能力，而这仅仅是因为人们可能会进行合作。但是如果合作的可能性足以使各团体拥有能力，那么即使在最好的情况下，各团体也将占据统治地位，因为团队成员可能会出于阻碍他人选择的目的而进行合作。作者认为这一困境只是表面上的。为了证明他们的观点，在一个阐述集体行动问题对共和主义理论有什么意义的博弈论模型的基础上，作者对共和主义式的统治概念提出了一个全新的解释。
Republicans hold that people are dominated merely in virtue of others’ having unconstrained abilities to frustrate their choices. They argue further that public officials may dominate citizens unless subject to popular control. Critics identify a dilemma. To maintain the possibility of popular control, republicans must attribute to the people an ability to control public officials merely in virtue of the possibility that they might coordinate their actions. But if the possibility of coordination suffices for attributing abilities to groups, then, even in the best case, countless groups will be dominating because it will be possible for their members to coordinate their actions with the aim of frustrating others’ choices. We argue the dilemma is apparent only. To make our argument, we present a novel interpretation of the republican concept of domination with the help of a game-theoretic model that clarifies the significance of collective action problems for republican theory.
六、收看、不收看：
评估族群电视台对政治参与的影响
题目：Tuning In, Not Turning Out: Evaluating the Impact of Ethnic Television on Political Participation
作者：Yamil Ricardo Velez，哥伦比亚大学政治学系助理教授; Benjamin J. Newman，加州大学河滨分校政治学系副教授
摘要：尽管族群电视台在移民社区中很重要，但是它在政治参与上的作用并不清楚。一方面，族群性的传媒能够动员和通知选民。另一方面，它也可以作为分散和削弱政治参与意愿的来源。为了评估这两种相对立的假设，我们利用两个州西班牙语电视台在联邦通讯委员会接收边界的数据，并对其进行了地理断点回归（GRD）分析。此外，我们利用三个具有族裔代表性的拉丁裔样本复现了我们GRD的分析结果。通过多重研究方法，我们发现收看西班牙语电视与投票率、政治参与和政治支持呈负相关。最后，我们讨论了这一发现对族群政治，政治传播和社会资本文献的影响。
Despite the importance of ethnic television within immigrant communities, its effects on political participation are unclear. On the one hand, ethnic media can mobilize and inform voters. On the other hand, it can serve as a source of diversion and reduce the desire to participate. To evaluate these competing possibilities, we implement a geographic regression discontinuity (GRD) approach involving Federal Communication Commission reception boundaries for Spanish-language television stations in two states. Additionally, we replicate and unpack our GRD analyses using three nationally representative samples of Latinos. Across multiple studies, we find that access to Spanish-language television is associated with decreases in turnout, ethnic civic participation, and political knowledge. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings on the ethnic politics, political communication, and social capital literatures.
七、掌握正确事实如何强化政党支持者主导的推理
题目：How Getting the Facts Right Can Fuel Partisan-Motivated Reasoning
作者：Martin Bisgaard，奥胡斯大学政治学系助理教授
摘要：学者们经常通过关注民众能否正确把握有关事实来评估他们参与民主政治的能力。在本文中，作者证明了为何这一方法会对民众能力产生误导性结论。作者认为，尽管拥有强烈政党认同的民众可能不得不接受同样的事实，但他们能够找到其他方式来使现实合理化。作者在文中论述了其中一种方法，即选择性地归功和归责。通过四个在不同国家背景下开展包含封闭式和开放式问题的随机试验，作者发现当政党的坚定支持者们正确地更新经济方面的观点以反映新的事实时，他们会反过来通过选择性极高的方式进行责任归因。尽管政党的坚定支持者可能认同同样的事实，但他们善于抓住并提出符合自己世界观偏好的归因论据。
Scholars often evaluate citizens’ democratic competence by focusing on their ability to get relevant facts right. In this article, I show why this approach can yield misleading conclusions about citizen competence. I argue that although citizens with strong partisan loyalties might be forced to accept the same facts, they find alternative ways to rationalize reality. One such way, I show, is through the selective attribution of credit and blame. With four randomized experiments, conducted in diverse national settings and containing closed-as well as open- ended questions, I find that as partisans correctly updated economic beliefs to reflect new facts, they conversely attributed responsibility in a highly selective fashion. Although partisans might acknowledge the same facts, they are apt in seizing on and producing attributional arguments that fit their preferred worldviews.
八、维和人员与暴力犯罪：
维和行动的意外影响
题目：Peacekeepers against Criminal Violence—Unintended Effects of Peacekeeping Operations?
作者：Jessica Di Salvatore，华威大学政治学与国际研究系助理教授。
摘要：研究显示维和人员能减少冲突的烈度，但是部署维和人员对非政治暴力的影响仍是未知的。本文聚焦于暴力犯罪并提出了一个双重机制来解释为什么维和行动——即使有效地减少了冲突——却反过来滋长了暴力犯罪。首先，较少的冲突带来了经济机会（即所谓的“维和经济”）并为有组织犯罪提供了行动时的安全环境，因此增加了犯罪集团之间的暴力竞争。其次，由于合法的谋生机会有限以及在战争中接受过的训练，复员的战斗人员很容易转向犯罪。虽然联合国部队可能会加剧这些问题，但是联合国警察的特殊作用可能会成功地遏制暴力犯罪。跨国层面和次国家层面的实证分析表明，大规模的联合国军事部署会导致更高的凶杀率，但是联合国警察在总体上缓和了这种附加影响。
Research shows that peacekeepers reduce conflict intensity; however, effects of deployment on nonpolitical violence are unknown. This article focuses on criminal violence and proposes a twofold mechanism to explain why peacekeeping missions, even when effectively reducing conflict, can inadvertently increase criminal violence. First, less conflict opens up economic opportunities (so-called peacekeeping economies) and provides operational security for organized crime, thus increasing violent competition among criminal groups. Second, demobilized combatants are vulnerable to turn to crime because of limited legal livelihood opportunities and their training in warfare. While UN troops may exacerbate these dynamics, UN police’s peculiar role is likely to successfully contain criminal violence. Cross-national and subnational empirical analyses show that large UN military deployments result in higher homicide rates, whereas UN police, overall, moderate this collateral effect.
九、贫困和神恩：
伊斯兰政党的选举优势
题目：Poverty and Divine Rewards: The Electoral Advantage of Islamist Political Parties
作者：Sharan Grewal，布鲁金斯学会博士后研究员；Amaney A. Jamal，普林斯顿大学政治学系教授；Tarek Masoud，哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授；Elizabeth R. Nugent，耶鲁大学政治学系助理教授
摘要：在穆斯林占多数的国家，政治生活的显著特征是伊斯兰政党在选举中占据主导地位。最近有研究试图解释为什么要强调它们的物质和组织因素，比如提供社会服务。在本文中，作者重新回顾了一个既有文献，它强调这些政党的宗教性质对那些陷入经济困难的选民的吸引力。遭受经济压力的个人可能会投票给伊斯兰主义者因为他们相信这是一种内在的善行，会在来世得到安拉的赏赐。作者通过一系列在突尼斯的实验室实验来验证上述假设。被灌输了经济紧张感的个人表现出对伊斯兰政党的更大支持，在这一因果关系中起到中介作用的是来世得到安拉之补偿的期望。这一证据表明伊斯兰政党的宗教性质可能是其选举成功的一个重要因素。
Political life in many Muslim-majority countries has been marked by the electoral dominance of Islamist parties. Recent attempts to explain why have highlighted their material and organizational factors, such as the provision of social services. In this article, we revive an older literature that emphasizes the appeal of these parties’ religious nature to voters experiencing economic hardship. Individuals suffering economic strain may vote for Islamists because they believe this to be an intrinsically virtuous act that will be met with divine rewards in the afterlife. We explore this hypothesis through a series of laboratory experiments in Tunisia. Individuals assigned to treatment conditions instilling feelings of economic strain exhibit greater support for Islamist parties, and this support is causally mediated by an expectation of divine compensation in the hereafter. The evidence suggests that the religious nature of Islamist parties may thus be an important factor in their electoral success.
十、话语型退出
题目： Discursive Exit
作者： Laura Montanaro，埃塞克斯大学政府系讲师
摘要：一些女性没有参加女权游行，拒绝联合和团结的主张，因为其认为白人女性仅在涉及自身利益时动员。这是一种具备三种特征的退出形式：（1）拒绝政治主张；（2）向掌权者和广大公众说明理由；（3）要求将问责制作为制裁和审议的手段，这就需要对其诉求进行讨论（在这种情况下，是对团体的意义和团体对自身的理解进行讨论）。退出、话语和审议问责制的结合可以被准确地称为“话语型退出”。话语型退出解决了标准型退出、话语和忠诚的概念性与规范性限制，特别是当退出和话语有瑕疵时（因为退出可以被视作对整个原因的反对）、有道德缺陷时（因为这种“来自内部”的话语暗示着原因大于分歧，致使人们在一种不受欢迎的权力运作中形成道德上的共谋）。
Some women did not participate in the Women's March, rejecting its claims of unity and solidarity because white women mobilize only in their self‐interest. This is a form of exit with three features: (1) rejecting a political claim; (2) providing reasons to the power wielder and the broader public; and (3) demanding accountability both as sanction and as deliberation, which requires a discussion about the claim—in this case, the meaning of the group and the terms on which it understands itself. This combination of exit, voice, and deliberative accountability might accurately be called “discursive exit.” Discursive exit addresses conceptual and normative limitations of standard accounts of exit, voice, and loyalty, in particular, when exit and voice are imperfect—because exit can be seen as disapproval of an entire cause—and morally problematic—because voice “from within” implies that cause trumps disagreement, leaving people morally complicit in an unwelcome exercise of power.
十一、当激进政党进入议会时选民会两极分化吗？
题目：Do Voters Polarize When Radical Parties Enter Parliament?
作者：Daniel Bischof，苏黎世大学政治学系高级研究员；Markus Wagner，维也纳大学政府系教授
摘要：当激进的观点获得政治合法性时，选民们会出现意识形态上的两极分化吗？还是激进声音的兴起仅仅反映了社会冲突？作者认为激进政党首次进入议会昭示着精英极化，这种进场导致了选民（在意识形态上）的分歧。选举一结束，合法化和抵制效应意味着两派意识形态阵营里的选民都会走向极端。从长远来看，由于激进党派在议会的存在，这种两极分化会进一步加剧。一项针对荷兰选民的定群追踪研究显示，2002年一个激进右翼政党进入议会后确实立即导致了政治光谱中意识形态的两极分化。基于17个国家（1973-2016）的欧洲晴雨表数据所估算的时间序列截面模型显示，激进右翼政党的加入对极化产生了额外的长期影响。右翼激进声音的存在产生了极化效应，说明了这种制度认可与合法化是如何能对社会产生深远影响。
Do voters polarize ideologically when radical views gain political legitimacy, or does the rise of radical voices merely reflect societal conflict? We argue that elite polarization as signaled by radical parties' first entrance into parliament leads to voter divergence. Immediately after the election, legitimization and backlash effects mean that voters on both ideological sides move toward the extremes. In the longer term, this polarization is solidified because of radical parties' parliamentary presence. A panel study of Dutch voters shows that the 2002 parliamentary entrance of a radical‐right party indeed led to immediate ideological polarization across the political spectrum. Estimating time‐series cross‐sectional models on Eurobarometer data from 17 countries (1973–2016) shows an additional long‐term impact of radical‐right party entry on polarization. The presence of radical voices on the right has polarizing effects, illustrating how such institutional recognition and legitimization can have a far‐reaching impact on society.
十二、政党的主要偏好：
族裔、性别与议会主要候选人的政党支持
题目：The Party's Primary Preferences: Race, Gender, and Party Support of Congressional Primary Candidates
作者：Hans J.G. Hassell，佛罗里达州立大学政治学系助理教授; Neil Visalvanich，杜伦大学政府与国际事务学院助理教授
摘要：政党的支持对候选人在初选中的成功当选有着强烈的影响，但是初选中政党的行为是否带有种族或性别偏见不得而知。通过对国会候选人的人口数据以及政党对主要候选人的支持程度进行测量，本文检视了政党是否在国会初选中歧视女性与少数族裔候选人，以及在某些初选中政党是否策略性地对少数族裔候选人予以支持本文的研究发现表明政党并不歧视少数族裔候选人，白人女性候选人获得民主党的支持要多于其他类型的候选人。本文的研究发现也表明了政党并不在少数族裔人口较多的地区策略性地推出少数族裔候选人来参选。最后，本文也发现政党支持对不同族裔或性别的候选人初选成功的影响不存在显著差异。
Party support has a strong influence on candidate success in the primary. What remains unexplored is whether party actions during the primary are biased along racial and gender lines. Using candidate demographic data at the congressional level and measures of party support for primary candidates, we test whether parties discriminate against women and minority candidates in congressional primaries and also whether parties are strategic in their support of minority candidates in certain primaries. Our findings show parties are not biased against minority candidates and also that white women candidates receive more support from the Democratic Party than do other types of candidates. Our findings also suggest that parties do not appear to strategically support minority candidates in districts with larger populations of minorities. Lastly, we also find no significant differences in the effects of party support on the likelihood of success in the primary by candidate race or gender.
十三、导致选举权受限的选票改革：
来自巴西第二共和国的证据
题目：Ballot Reform as Suffrage Restriction: Evidence from Brazil's Second Republic
作者：Daniel Gingerich，弗吉尼亚大学政治学系副教授
摘要：民主制度设计中很少有创新像将统一的、正式的和无记名投票引入选举那样被认为具有根本性意义。对此，一种观点指出这些正式投票将选民从他们对当地精英的依赖中解放出来，从而强化了民主竞争。另外一种观点则反驳道，在存在大量文盲的背景下，这一举措等同于对文盲选举权的限制。本文通过对巴西第二共和国（1945-1964）时期市政议会选举的原始数据的分析讨论了这些观点。在此期间，正式选票交错展示的独特方式使人们能够以前所未有的准确性评估其影响。本文发现选票改革带来的首要后果是对选举权的限制。正式的投票不仅没有解放穷人和非独立选民，反而导致这些个体更难参与投票。此外，议会辩论表明这是改革的预期效应。
Few innovations in democratic institutional design are considered as fundamental as the introduction of voting through the use of a uniform, official, and secret ballot. One account claims that the official ballot liberates dependent voters from the dictates of local elites, thereby enhancing democratic competition. Another argues that in contexts of widespread illiteracy, its adoption may be tantamount to a suffrage restriction. This article adjudicates between these views by drawing upon an original data set of municipal‐level voting returns from Brazil's Second Republic (1945–1964). The unique staggered rollout of the official ballot during this period permits one to assess its impact with unprecedented accuracy. The article finds that the primary consequence of ballot reform was suffrage restriction. Rather than liberating poor and dependent voters, the official ballot made it exceedingly difficult for these individuals to vote. Moreover, parliamentary debates indicate that this was an anticipated and intended effect of the reform.
十四、政治中的损失规避
题目：Loss Aversion in Politics
作者：Alberto Alesina，哈佛大学Nathaniel Ropes政治经济学教授
Francesco Passarelli，都灵大学经济学教授
摘要：作者通过检视中间选民模型（在有两名候选人的选举中倾向完全趋同）和关于政策建议的局部散度模型，研究了选举中的损失规避行为。首先，作者展示了现状偏见、禀赋效应以及政策的调节效应。其次，作者证明了伴随着支持左翼或右翼的独立运动，会出现“长周期”政策现象。最后，作者证明了相较于老龄化社会，较年轻的社会应该更容易做出改变，受现状偏见的影响也更小。
We study loss aversion in elections by investigating a median voter model (full convergence in a two-candidate election) and a model of partial divergence of policy proposals. First, we show a status quo bias, an endowment effect, and a moderating effect of policies. Second, we show the occurrence of “long-term cycles” in policies with self-supporting movements to the right or the left. Finally, we prove that younger societies should be more prone to change and less affected by the status quo bias than older ones.
十五、坚定的民主人士还是有条件的民主人士？
选举威权中反对派联盟的流变
题目：Committed or Conditional Democrats? Opposition Dynamics in Electoral Autocracies
作者：Jennifer Gandhi，埃默里大学政治学系副教授; Elvin Ong，卑诗大学东南亚研究中心博士后
摘要：在选举式威权主义国家中，反对派的结盟为其提供了向民主转型的最大希望。然而，组建选举联盟还需要说服反对派选民忽略党派妥协，并参与到争取反对派联盟胜利所必需的跨党派投票中来。在可能导致自己并不喜欢的结果情况下，选民在多大程度上会团结一致打败在任的威权统治者。在马来西亚进行的一项调查实验发现，绝大多数反对派选民对反对派之间准备结盟的计划表示支持。但是，当面对有关哪个党派可能领导下一届政府的问题时，许多选民撤回了他们的支持。具而言之，当选民最不喜欢的成员有可能控制政府时，并且他们可以投票支持联盟之外意识形态上更贴合自己偏好的替代方案时，选民对反对派联盟的支持就会下降。尽管选民支持反对派的结盟和民主转型，但这一支持很容易受到反对派获胜的具体结果影响。
In electoral autocracies, opposition coalition formation offers the best hope of getting to democracy. Yet forming electoral coalitions also entails convincing opposition voters to ignore compromises and engage in the cross‐party voting necessary for opposition victory. To what extent are voters committed to defeating the autocratic incumbent even if it would result in dislikable outcomes? A survey experiment in Malaysia finds that opposition voters overwhelmingly express pretreatment support for the opposition coalition. But when exposed to a treatment vignette about which member party might lead the next government, many voters retract their support. Specifically, voters’ support for the coalition declines when their least preferred member is expected to control the government and when they can vote for a closer ideological alternative outside of the coalition. Although voters are committed to opposition unity and democratic transition, that commitment is sensitive to the anticipated consequences of an opposition victory.
编译/审读：康张城、施榕、杨端程、吴温泉、赵德昊
编辑：郭静远
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