经济学人社论 || 重塑美国资本主义的计划
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导读
感谢思维导图作者
Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
A Plan for American capitalism
重塑美国资本主义的计划
英文部分选自经济学人20191026期Leaders版块
Elizabeth warren
伊丽莎白·沃伦
A Plan for American capitalism
重塑美国资本主义的计划
As it stands, the Democratic front-runner’s programme has too little time for markets or business
按照目前情况，民主党领跑者的施政方案留给市场和商业的时日不多
Elizabeth warren is remarkable. Born into a struggling family in Oklahoma, she worked her way up tp become a star law professor at Harvard. As a single mother in the 1970s, she broke with convention by pursuing a full-time career. In an era of rule-by-tweet, she is an unashamed policy wonk who is now a front-runner to be the Democratic nominee for president in 2020. Polls suggest that, in a head-to-head contest, more Americans would vote for her than for Donald Trump.
伊丽莎白·沃伦非同寻常。她出生在俄克拉荷马州，家境贫寒，却一路逆袭成哈佛法学院的明星教授。上世纪70年代，身为单亲妈妈，她敢于打破世俗惯例，追求事业发展。在这个推特治国的时代，她无视嘲笑而潜心研究政策,成为民主党2020年总统候选人的领跑者。民调显示，这场激烈的竞争中，支持沃伦的美国人比支持唐纳德·特朗普的人还要多。
But as remarkable as Ms Warren’s story is the sheer scope of her ambition to remake American capitalism. She has an admirably detailed plan to transform a system she believes is corrupt and fails ordinary people. Plenty of her ideas are good. She is right to try to limit giant firms’ efforts to influence politics and gobble up rivals. But at its heart, her plan reveals a systematic reliance on regulation and protectionism. As it stands, it is not the answer to America’s problems.
沃伦的人生很传奇，但令人更惊奇的是她想重塑美国资本主义的雄心壮志。沃伦制定了事无巨细的计划，来改革她认为既腐败又损害普通人利益的市场体制。她的很多想法都值得称赞。沃伦努力限制巨头企业影响政治和吞并对手，这是对的。但究其根本，她的计划体现了对强监管和保护主义的系统性依赖。目前来看，这个方案不是美国问题的灵丹妙药。
Ms Warren is responding to an enduring set of worries. America has higher inequality than any other big rich country. While jobs are plentiful, wage growth is strangely subdued. In two-thirds of industries big firms have become bigger, allowing them to crank out abnormally high profits and share less of the pie with workers. For Ms Warren this is personal. Her parents endured the Dust Bowl and the Great Depression in the 1930s and later her father’s career collapsed because of illness. As a scholar, she specialised in examining how bankruptcy punishes those who fall on hard times. The idea that animates her thinking is of a precarious middle class, preyed on by big business and betrayed by politicians feasting on the corporate dollar in Washington, DC.
沃伦女士正在应对一系列长期存在的隐患问题。美国的不平等程度比其他任何一个富裕国家都要高。虽然工作岗位充足，但是工资增长却出奇地缓慢。在三分之二的行业中，大公司日渐壮大，使得它们可以获取异常高额的利润，分给工人相对更少的利益。而这也是沃伦女士个人的亲身经历。她的父母曾经历过20世纪30年代的黑色风暴和经济大萧条。之后父亲事业因疾病而崩溃。作为学者，她专门研究破产如何使时运不济的人雪上加霜。她这个想法的灵感来自于岌岌可危的中产阶级。他们一边被大企业捕食和压榨，一边被吞噬美元的华盛顿政治家们出卖。
注：
Dust Bowl 黑色风暴事件，指的是1930年代发生在北美的一系列沙尘暴侵袭事件。
https://cn.bing.com/dict/dustbowl
Some Republican and Wall Street critics claim that Ms Warren is a socialist. She is not. She does not support the public ownership of firms or political control of the flow of credit. Instead she favours regulations that force the private sector to pass her test of what it is to be fair.
有些共和党人和华尔街批评人士认为沃伦女士拥护社会主义，其实她不是。她并没有支持公司公有制或是政府控制信贷流动。相反，她热衷于运用规章制度迫使私有制公司达到她的公平标准。
The scope of these regulations is jaw-dropping. Banks would be broken up, split between commercial and investment banking. Tech giants such as Facebook would be dismembered and turned into utilities. In energy there would be a ban on shale fracking (which, for oil markets, would be a bit like shutting down Saudi Arabia), a phase-out of nuclear power, and targets for renewables. Private health insurance would be mostly banned and replaced by a state-run system. Private-equity barons would no longer be shielded by limited liability: instead they would have to honour the debts of the firms in which they invest.
这些规定的尺度令人瞠目结舌：银行将被拆分为商业银行和投资性银行；像脸书这样的科技巨头将被分拆而转为公用事业；在能源方面，将禁止水力压裂开采页岩气（对于燃油市场来讲，这就好比关停沙特阿拉伯的石油工业）；逐渐停止使用核能源，并致力于再生能源；全民医保系统将取代私人健康保险；私募股权巨头们再也不能拿有限责任作挡箭牌，相反，他们将承担所投资公司的债务。
This sectoral re-regulation would complement sweeping, economy-wide measures—a 15% social-security levy on those earning over $250,000, a 2% annual wealth tax on those with assets over $50m, a 3% tax for those worth over $1bn and a 7% extra levy on corporate profits. Meanwhile the state would loosen owners’ control of companies. All big firms would have to apply for a licence from the federal government, which could be revoked if they repeatedly failed to consider the interests of employees, customers and communities. Workers would elect two-fifths of board seats.
这种行业重新监管将完善经济措施，影响广泛——收入超过25万美元的人将缴纳15%的社保税，对于资产过5000万的人每年征收2%的财富税，资产过10亿的人每年征收3%，以及企业利润征收7%的企业税。同时国家将削弱企业主对公司的控制力度。所有的大公司必须向联邦政府申请企业许可证，如果他们一再忽视员工、消费者和所在城市的切实利益，他们的许可证将被吊销。雇员将有权选举五分之二的公司董事席位。
Ms Warren is no xenophobe, but she is a protectionist. New requirements for trade deals would make them less likely. Her government would “actively manage” the value of the dollar.
沃伦女士虽然不是排外主义者，但却是一个保护主义者。对贸易协定的新要求将降低达成协议的可能性。她治下的政府将会“积极管理”美元的价值。
Ms Warren champions some ideas this newspaper supports. One reason for inequality is that lucrative corners of the economy are locked up by insiders. She is right to call for a vigorous antitrust policy, including for tech firms , zero-tolerance of cronyism, and an end to non-compete agreements that limit workers’ ability to gain higher wages and switch jobs. Given inflation, her plan to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 over five years may be a reasonable way of helping poorer workers. The rich should indeed pay more tax , although we think the practical path is to close loopholes, such as a perk for capital gains known as carried interest, and to raise inheritance taxes, not a wealth tax. And while a carbon levy is our preferred way to fight climate change, her plan for clean-energy targets would make a big difference.
本报支持沃伦女士倡议的一些理念。产生不平等现象的一个原因是经济中利润丰厚的部分被内行人锁定，收入囊中。她呼吁出台一个强有力的反垄断政策，包括对科技公司内任人唯亲的现象零容忍，取消限制劳动者更换工作和赚取更高工资能力的竞业禁止协议，这些都是正确的。考虑到通货膨胀，她计划在5年内将联邦最低工资标准调至每小时15美元，用这种合理的方式来帮助较贫困工人。富人确实应当支付更多的税收，尽管我们认为实际的方法是修复这些漏洞，例如提高对资产利得（即附带权益）的征收税率，提高遗产税而不是财富税。应对气候变化方面，尽管我们比较建议的方式是征收碳排放税，但她为清洁能源的目标而制定的计划将有重要影响。
However, if the entire Warren plan were enacted, America’s freewheeling system would suffer a severe shock. Roughly half the stockmarket and private-equity owned firms would be broken up, undergo heavy re-regulation or see activities abolished. And over time Ms Warren’s agenda would entrench two dubious philosophies about the economy that would sap its vitality.
但是，若沃伦的计划全部通过，美国这种自由的体制将遭受重创。大约半数的股市和私募股权公司将会被拆分，经历严格的重新监管或者被停止经营。随着时间推移，沃伦女士的计划将固化两个不靠谱的理念，最终削弱经济活力。
The first is her faith in government as benign and effective. Government is capable of doing great good but, like any big organisation, it is prone to incompetence, capture by powerful insiders and Kafkaesque indifference to the plight of the ordinary men and women Ms Warren most cares about. When telecoms firms and airline companies were heavily regulated in the 1970s, they were notorious for their stodginess and inefficiency. Ms Warren’s signature achievement is the creation in 2011 of a body to protect consumers of financial services. It has done good work, but has unusual powers, has at times been heavy handed and has become a political football.
第一个理念是深信政府运作良性且有效。虽然政府有能力做利民大事，但是与其他大型机构一样，政府也会失能，政府大权也会由有权有势官员掌控，解决沃伦最为关心的普通民众的困境也很易表现出卡夫卡式的冷漠。20世纪70年代，电信公司和航空公司受到严格监管，政府也因其行事古板，效率低下而臭名昭著。沃伦的标志性成就是在2011年设立消费者金融保护局。尽管该机构做有益之事，但是它有非同寻常的权力，行事有时咄咄逼人，俨然成为“政治皮球”。
The other dubious philosophy is a vilification of business. She underrates the dynamic power of markets to help middle-class Americans, invisibly guiding the diverse and spontaneous actions of people and firms, moving capital and labour from dying industries to growing ones and innovating at the expense of lazy incumbents. Without that creative destruction, no amount of government action can raise long-term living standards.
另一个理念是轻视贬低商业。她低估了生机勃勃的市场力量对美国中产阶级的帮助。市场活力在无形中引导着民众和企业自发产生多样行为，将资本和劳动力从夕阳产业转移到朝阳行业，以创新取代低效落后。没有这种创造性破坏，任何政府行为都无法长期提高人们的生活水平。
注:
创造性破坏: 自由主义和自由市场派经济学家把“创造性破坏”视为资本主义的优点，用于描述公司的兴衰使市场向更有效率的方向进行。在这种观点下，创造性破坏是资本主义成功的一个主要原因。企业家的创新是经济增长的驱动力，而创新能够从内部不停地革新经济结构，即不断地破坏旧有的秩序和结构， 同时再不断地创造新的结构。这一过程便被称为“创造性破坏”。通过创新，企业家不断创造性地打破旧的市场均衡，而经济增长就是以这种“创造性破坏”为特征的动态竞争的过程。(维基百科)
Primary colours
基本要义
Many presidents have taken positions in the primaries that they pivoted away from as their party’s nominee. If Ms Warren were to make it to the Oval Office in 15 months’ time, she would be constrained by the courts, the states and probably the Senate. The immense size and depth of America’s economy means that no individual, not even the one sitting in the White House, can easily change its nature. Nonetheless Ms Warren’s government-heavy master-plan contains much to worry about. She needs to find more room for the innovative and dynamic private sector that has always been at the heart of American prosperity.
许多总统会在初选时采取与获得本党提名时不同的立场。如果沃伦在15个月后有幸当选，她将受到法院、各州乃至参议院的制约。美国经济的巨大规模和深层结构意味着任何人（包括美国总统）都无法轻易改变它的性质。尽管如此，沃伦这种以政府为主导的总体计划还是有很多需要商榷的地方。她需要为充满创新和活力的私营部门找到更多发展空间，这一直是美国繁荣发展的核心。
注:
Oval Office: 椭圆形办公室位于白宫西厢，是美国总统的正式办公室。顾名思义，办公室呈椭圆形，总统办公桌后有三扇朝南的窗户，房间北侧有一个壁炉。其建于1909年塔夫脱总统时期，办公室的灵感来自椭圆蓝室。
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翻译组：
Rachel，女，翻硕菜鸡，元气少女
Charlotte，女，子瞻太白本命 经学粉
Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟
Monica，女，骨子里第一名的理想主义者
Cinda，女，英语花痴 经济学粉 英语、音乐、旅行、阅读、运动一个也不能少
校对组：
Yao，男，上外高材生，北大苗子
Wesley，男，英语老师，经济学人铁粉
Carole，女，经济硕士，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上
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观点|评论|思考
本次评论由Very独家奉献
Vincent 男，狱警，电子与法学双硕，爱好诗歌与哲学
政治家有三宝：一是通盘分析的长期战略观；二是认真分析暧昧不清而且相互抵触的纷杂外力，把它们引向服务于一定目标的一致方向，并服务于上一条；三是最大可能弥合本国社会的现实与所追求目标之间的差距。玩政治的人道理差不多都懂，但熟谙于各种实操技能又是另一回事。不然，怎会有1890年裨斯麦卸任后的下一任首相奥·冯·卡普里维无奈的感慨：裨斯麦可以同时让5个球不落地，而自己让两个球不落地都难。
裨斯麦这样的天才是鲜见的，毕竟纵横捭阖的本事本就非常人所能为。真正的问题在于，“世界范围内，国际关系学的培养往往侧重于国际关系学理论的研究，而非对国际政治史，缺乏特别是动荡革命史的深切认知；政治学的培养，往往又带有极强的价值观偏见，而非对权力逻辑的深入了解；再加上，历史学的培养，又侧重于某个具体国家具体事件的截面，缺乏对广度问题的横向认知，以致于缺乏印证现实问题的能力。”种种问题，是看不明白问题，当你无法把握（某人或某动物）的行动逻辑，只能陷入迷茫和困惑。（其实，不一定要大到对一个政治家的特定政治行为的研究，小到单位里不起眼的小领导的行为研究，都离不开对其内里逻辑的掌握。）
博得民众支持的方法在于，先要找到博眼球的点，而后是基于此许诺于人，最后是借由各种手段实现或假装实现这个承诺。比如当年的意大利狂人借助意大利舆论对他本人的关注，频繁出现在意大利取得任何微小进步的地方。从1922年到1925年，任何一个新工厂建成，不管多么小，墨索里尼都会设法亲自出席剪裁典礼；任何一个轮船下水，墨索里尼都会亲临现场致贺；任何一个桥梁架成，墨索里尼都会成为其中的受邀嘉宾。舆论媒体对墨索里尼的狂热追逐，无形之中使新工厂、新轮船、新桥梁等事件竟然成为当时意大利最普遍的新闻，尽管意大利的发展速度并不比原本更好。再比如，某单位不起眼的小领导，也熟谙于各类宣传手段，在食堂换桌椅、仓库增加了货架、办公室新增了擦手纸上大作文章，用几个小时即可完成的小事，营造出任期内事事为民的外在形象。海德格尔的《存在与世间》中说，事物存在的意义首先在于有用性和可靠性，鲜有人从事物的本源去考虑问题。所以，不遗余力地宣传，有助于在现象学上取得胜利，放之四海皆准。
关于此次的美国选举，看到一个有意思的说法。“过去白人为主的美国人口稳定结构，即将全面瓦解。2016年6月，《华尔街日报》报纸援引最近最新一次人口普查的结果称，按人口年龄来看，在55岁以上的美国人中有3/4为白人，在18至34岁美国人中白人仅占56%，在未成年中甚至低于50%；从地域来看，全美36个州和华盛顿哥伦比亚特区的370个县非拉丁裔白人人口不到全国总人口的一半。这些地区包括德克萨斯州沃思堡和奥斯汀市、北卡罗来纳州的夏洛特市、佐治亚州的萨凡纳市、加利福尼亚州的萨克拉门托市等大型城市。”
任何国家的政治是以人为基础的，一个国家的人口结构改变，必然引发政治结构的重构。美国也不例外，这个国家的政治氛围正紧随人口结构的变化迅速变异，或者说毒化。五胡乱华前夕，成都王司马颖通过武装五部匈奴移民来扫除对手，而东海王司马越和王浚则通过贿赂鲜卑人消灭强敌；罗马帝国崩溃前夕，帝国的权臣或者皇帝们争先恐后地与入侵的蛮族的结盟，并对蛮人对罗马境内合法居民的侵蚀听之任之；苏联灭亡前夕，戈尔巴乔夫也曾放权于苏共内部的少数民族地方领袖，依靠他们对抗党内保守派。今天，美国或者西方的选票政治以一种独特的新形式，完成了历史的重复。
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愿景
小组