TE||Kuroda ain’t over

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日本央行将维持现行货币宽松政策不变

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Kuroda ain’t over

“黑田时代”并未结束

本文英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块

The bank of Japan

日本银行

Japan’s central bank chooses continuity over tradition

日本央行继续延续传统

Governors of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tend not to linger long in their post. Twenty-two people have headed the institution since 1914, compared with 16 at the Federal Reserve and 12 at the Bank of England. The last time a BoJ governor won a second term was 1961, when Japan’s economy was growing by over 11% and inflation was over 5%. As Richard Werner, the author of “Princes of the Yen”, a history of the central bank’s failures, points out, by tradition the job alternates every five years between a candidate backed by the finance ministry and a “true-born” BoJ insider.

日本央行(以下简称BoJ)行长往往不会长久呆在他们的职位上。1914年以来,共有22人执掌日本央行,然而美联储和英国央行分别为16人和12人。上一次日央行行长获得连任是在1961年,那时日本经济增长超过11%,通货膨胀率超过5%。正如《日元王子》这本讲述“中央银行失败史”的书作者理查德沃纳(Richard Werner)所指出的那样,按照传统,日本央行行长每五年在财政部支持的候选人与“纯正的”日本央行内部人士之间进行轮换。

第二次世界大战后日本央行的历任行长

This tradition will be broken by the reappointment of Haruhiko Kuroda, who was nominated for a second term on February 16th. If he completes it, he will become the longest-serving governor in the BoJ’s history.

2月16日获得连任提名的黑田东彦将打破这一传统。如果他连任成功,他将成为日本央行历史上任期最长的行长。

With luck that might be long enough for him to reach the central bank’s elusive inflation target of 2%, a goal set five years ago which he had hoped to meet by 2015. Although the BoJ has bought assets lustily with freshly created money, core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, was only 0.3% in the year to December. Mr Kuroda hopes that low unemployment will eventually force firms to raise wages and prices, which will in turn raise expectations of inflation in the future, reinforcing its momentum. The yen should also help. Although it has strengthened by about 4% this year on a trade-weighted basis, it remains much cheaper than it was in the summer of 2016.

运气好的话,这个任期可能足够使他完成央行难以达到的2%通货膨胀率的目标了。这是他在5年前设定的目标,他希望在2015年之前能够实现。虽然日本央行用新创造的货币来购买了资产,但剔除食品和能源价格的核心通胀率到去年12月份仅为0.3%。黑田先生希望低失业率最终会迫使企业提高工资和产品价格,这反过来会提高未来通胀的预期,并加强企业生产动力。日元也许也能有所帮助。尽管今年在贸易加权基础上它已经升值了4%左右,但仍然比2016年夏天低得多。

黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda):前亚洲开发银行行长,现日本央行行长,支持宽松货币政策,提出央行将推动“质化和量化”货币宽松政策以尽快实现2%通胀率目标。

The window for success may close rather earlier than 2023, however. The government plans to raise Japan’s consumption tax from 8% to 10% in October next year. Mr Kuroda supported the last such increase in April 2014, arguing that Japan’s public finances needed help and Japan’s recovery could withstand the blow. That proved to be a mistake. The central bank’s monetary easing failed to prevent a sharp drop in demand, partly because Japan’s private sector proved surprisingly willing to hold, rather than spend, the extra money Mr Kuroda created. But that willingness to hold safe assets (whether money or sovereign bonds) means Japan’s enormous public debt remains surprisingly easy to sustain. The government may try to offset the next tax increase by raising social spending at the same time. But the increase still poses a threat to Japan’s economic momentum.

然而,成功的窗口恐怕会在2023年到来许久之前就会关闭。政府计划明年10月将消费税从8%提高到10%。黑田东彦最后一次支持增税的举措是在2014年4月,他认为日本的公共财政需要更多资金,并且其经济复苏是能够承受这般波澜的。但事实证明这是一个错误。日本央行的货币宽松政策并没有阻止需求的急剧下降,有一部分原因是日本的私人部门出人意料地证实,他们更愿意持有而不是用央行增发的额外货币来消费。但是,人们持有无风险资产的偏好(不论是现金还是国债)意味着日本大量的公共债务是极难偿还的。政府可能试图通过同时增加社会支出来抵消增税对经济带来的负面影响。但是,此次增税政策仍对日本的经济增长带来一定的威胁。

Mr Kuroda also worries that his policy of negative interest rates, announced in January 2016, may eventually turn counterproductive. The cut in rates raised the value of long-term assets held by Japan’s banks, improving their balance sheets. But this one-time benefit must be set against an ongoing cost: negative rates hurt the margin that banks earn between the interest rates they charge their borrowers and the lower rates they pay for their funding. Since banks have not been able to pass on negative rates in full to their depositors, their funding costs have fallen less than their loan rates. This narrower margin could erode their financial standing and eventually inhibit their lending.

黑田东彦还担忧2016年1月宣布的“负利率政策”最终适得其反。利率下调提高了日本各银行持有的长期资产的价值,从而改善了它们的资产负债状况。但是,这种一次性的收入增加必须以持续的成本为代价。银行的收益源自于向债务人收取的利息和支付给债权人较低利息之间的差额,负利率会使得息差收窄。因为银行无法完全将负利率转嫁到其存款客户上,使得其融资成本的降幅要比贷款利率的降幅要小。愈窄的获利区间可能侵蚀银行主要收入来源,最终限制其借款活动。

There is, however, “no evidence that such a thing is happening in Japan”, Masazumi Wakatabe, an economist at Waseda University in Tokyo, told Bloomberg, a news agency, in December. The improvement in the economy has increased the creditworthiness of borrowers, obliging banks to write off fewer bad loans. And bank lending grew apace after negative rates were introduced in January 2016 (see chart), even as firms have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to issue more of their own bonds and commercial paper.

然而,东京早稻田大学经济学家田部昌澄12月接受彭博资讯采访时说道:暂无证据表明日本正遭遇此事(负利率带来的副作用)。经济增长增强了借款人的信誉,银行坏账数量减少。自2016年1月日本宣布实行负利率以来,银行贷款规模飞速上涨(如图表所示),甚至企业也利用低借贷成本来发行自己的公司债券和商业票据。

Mr Wakatabe’s view that the BoJ should not “exit” too soon from easing seems to be shared in high places. He was also nominated on February 16th to serve alongside Mr Kuroda as one of his new deputy governors. The other deputy will be Masayoshi Amamiya, a central-bank insider known as “Mr BoJ”, who has worked to implement Mr Kuroda’s policies. Many think Mr Amamiya could eventually succeed Mr Kuroda as governor. He might even be the bank’s first boss since 1989 to inherit inflation above 2%. That would be a welcome break with recent tradition.

田部昌澄认为日本央行不应过快退出量化宽松政策,这一观点似乎在高层中得到了认同。2月16日,田部昌澄还被提名担任央行副行长,辅佐黑田先生。另一位副行长是被称为“日本央行先生”的央行内部人员雨宫正佳。他一直致力于实施黑田所制定的政策。许多人认为,雨宫正佳最终可能接替黑田东彦担任行长。他甚至可能成为央行自1989年以来能将通货膨胀率控制在2%以上的第一位大佬。那恐怕将是一个打破传统的可喜突破。

翻译组:

Vivian,女,国际商务硕士,经济学人爱好者

Top,女,翻译专业大三学生,经济学人爱好者

Jasmine,女,税收专业大三学生,经济学人爱好者

校核组:

Emily,女,金融民工,经济学人粉丝

Alan,男,金融工程硕士,经济学人粉丝

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观点 |评论|思考

本次观点由金融民工Lulu全权执笔

划重点单身

在经济学领域有这么一个说法,在过去的几十年里,日本堪称是经济理论的坟墓。其中,菲利普斯曲线的有效性再一次被推上风口浪尖(此前我们分析过美国市场“失业率下降但通胀低迷的悖论”,详见seeking a soft land那一期)。

基础经济学理论认为,随着劳动力市场的紧缩,就业竞争将推高工资水平,进而通过增加需求和提高成本来提高消费者价格。而在日本,没有发生类似的事情。尽管失业率下降,工资和物价几乎没有上升的迹象。这一现象与菲利普斯曲线相背。或许也可以从分析美国的角度来分析日本,但从目前的结果来看,也许对于通胀是如何运作的,仍是一个谜。

为了推动经济复苏和增长,日本央行也可谓是操碎了心,其中有典型性代表的就是持续量化和质化货币宽松政策(也就是所谓的异次元宽松)。日本央行从90年代就开始逐步下调利率,更是在2016年1月开始的“负利率”政策。不过这边的“负利率”有别于我们通常认知的利率,负利率主要是适用于银行机构在日本央行的超额存款准备金,零利率适用于银行机构的存款准备金,跟个人、企业在银行的存款利率其实并没有直接关系。这主要是在全球经济下行的状况下,日本政府为促使银行放宽面向企业的贷款,在把放在自己这儿的钱努力往外赶,从而来达到促进投资和消费的目的。当然,央行的利率都负了,银行的利差肯定收窄,0.001%的存款利率也实在是降无可降。

央妈的愿望肯定是美好的,世界范围内在经济不景气时采取“负利率”的也不是日本一家,欧元区、瑞士、瑞典、丹麦,早就先于日本尝试该货币政策,但从实施负利率的情况来看,效果却并不十分理想,而日本国内通过低利率刺激投资和消费似乎也并没有朝着政府所希冀的方向发展,比起买买买,人们还是更加倾向于0.001%的蝇头小利,这也是反应了背后几乎掉到谷底的的经济低迷。

另一个政策是关于提高消费税,这一步日本政府走的也可谓是如履薄冰。一方面面临高额的,确切说,巨额的债务,政府仍然需要额外收入来维持国家的社会保障计划,并履行到2020年消除主要财政赤字的承诺。而另一方面鉴于日本经济的脆弱性,以及2014年4月消费税从5%开始上调的做法导致了比预期更严重的经济收缩,这次从8%上调至10%的改革之路,就显得格外谨慎和艰辛了。从最初计划2015年10月上调,尔后推迟到2017年4月,再到目前来看的最早时间节点恐怕要延迟到2019年10月。不敢轻举妄动大约很好地反映了日本政府的心理活动。不过在目前利率这么低的情况下,也使得日本政府的“借新还旧”维持运转变得没那么亚历山大。

到底是谁搭了谁的顺风车,想象空间还是挺大的。

黑田东彦在2013年3月走马上任日本央行行长后,设立了在2015年前实现通货膨胀率达2%的目标。既然安倍经济学将成功的重要标准就是通胀目标的实现,我们可以简单捋一下走势。从他任职到2014年早期,通胀率从负值攀升到4%左右,尔后又持续下跌,2016年一度进入负值区域。不过本月22日最新公布的数据达到1.4%,已经连续好于预期。是短期的反弹还是长期的向好,看,呆老板拭目以待的条目又多了一款。

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