政观快递 | British Journal of Political Science, No.1, 2020（下）
期刊简介：《英国政治学杂志》（British Journal of Political Science，BJPS）是一本内容广泛的杂志，涵盖了政治科学的所有领域（包括政治理论、政治行为、公共政策和国际关系），并且相关学科（社会学、社会理学、经济学和哲学）学者的文章也经常出现。根据2018年Journal Citation Report显示，其2018年的影响因子为4.292， 在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第4（4/176）。
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期刊目录
9. 微妙的问责制：南部非洲国家选民对服务提供的反应
Nuanced Accountability: Voter Responses to Service Delivery in Southern Africa
10. 非洲的族群多样性、族群分离和族群中心主义式的信任
Ethnic Diversity, Segregation and Ethnocentric Trust in Africa
11. 政治极化时代中的价值观和政治倾向：考察美国的党派偏见与意识形态之间的关系（1988-2012）
Values and Political Predispositions in the Age of Polarization: Examining the Relationship between Partisanship and Ideology in the United States, 1988–2012
12. 多党制民主国家中的联盟博弈期
Coalition Bargaining Duration in Multiparty Democracies
13. 该谁上报纸？政党竞选信息与媒体
Who Gets into the Papers? Party Campaign Messages and the Media
14. 超越风险率：从考克斯比例风险模型中生成预期的持续时间
Beyond the Hazard Ratio: Generating Expected Durations from the Cox Proportional Hazards Model
15. 地方种族多样性对以群体为中心的犯罪态度的影响
The Influence of Local Ethnic Diversity on Group-Centric Crime Attitudes
16. 接触暴力如何影响种族投票
How Exposure to Violence Affects Ethnic Voting
17. 责任分担：收入、不平等与战斗意愿
Burden Sharing: Income, Inequality and Willingness to Fight
微妙的问责制：南部非洲国家选民对服务提供的反应
题目：Nuanced Accountability: Voter Responses to Service Delivery in Southern Africa
作者：Daniel de Kadt，加州大学默塞德分校政治学系助理教授；Even S. Lieberman，麻省理工学院政治学系教授
摘要：各种关于民主治理的理论都假定公民会在现任政治家提供了更好的服务时投他的票，当其提供的服务变差时就投反对派的票。但是理论中的选举问责制是否在发展中国家的情境下仍然能发挥作用呢？本文研究了南部非洲的民主国家，那里对基本服务的基础设施投资已经有了广泛但并不全面的扩张，基于此本文对上述问题提供了新的理论解释。通过分析服务提供与投票行为的关系，我们发现了一个出乎意料的负相关关系：服务提供的改善预示着对执政党在任者的支持将减少。尽管在反对派控制地方政府的地区，这一负向关系更为强烈，但即便在全国性执政党控制地方政府的地区，这一负相关关系仍然存在。调查数据也侧面提供了相应证据，表明公民对腐败的担忧和对公共服务提供不断增长的偏好可能驱动着公民的态度和行为。因此，选民可能会对服务的提供作出回应，但回应也许是以比现有理论之前所认定的更为微妙的方式进行。
Various theories of democratic governance posit that citizens should vote for incumbent politicians when they provide good service, and vote for the opposition when service delivery is poor. But does electoral accountability work as theorized, especially in developing country contexts? Studying Southern African democracies, where infrastructural investment in basic services has expanded widely but not universally, we contribute a new empirical answer to this question. Analyzing the relationship between service provision and voting, we find a surprising negative relationship: improvements in service provision predict decreases in support for dominant party incumbents. Though stronger in areas where opposition parties control local government, the negative relationship persists even in those areas where local government is run by the nationally dominant party. Survey data provide suggestive evidence that citizen concerns about corruption and ratcheting preferences for service delivery may be driving citizen attitudes and behaviors. Voters may thus be responsive to service delivery, but perhaps in ways that are more nuanced than extant theories previously recognized.
非洲的族群多样性、族群分离和族群中心主义式的信任
题目：Ethnic Diversity, Segregation and Ethnocentric Trust in Africa
作者：Amanda Lea Robinson，俄亥俄州立大学大学政治学系副教授
摘要：族群多样性通常与较少的社会资本和低水平的信任相关。然而，大多数对这一关系展开的经验证据都聚焦于广义的信任，而不是采用在理论上更为恰当的、基于群体的信任的测量。本文评估了族群多样性（在国家、地方和基层）和同族信任高于非同族信任程度（在此这一取值被称为同族信任溢价）的关系。使用来自16个非洲国家的民意调查数据，这一研究发现，平均而言，在族群多样的国家，公民会表现出更多的族群中心主义式信任。然而，在国家内部，地方族群多样性与更低的族群中心主义信任相关。族群多样性和族群中心主义信任的负相关关系同样出现在马拉维的各个区域和列举地区。与这一关系模式相一致，本文尔后表明只有在族群在空间上相分离的情况下，族群多样性会损害全国层面的族群间信任。这些结果凸显了族群空间分布对于族群间关系的重要性，并质疑了族群互动的微观研究对于理解宏观层面上族群动态的作用。
Ethnic diversity is generally associated with less social capital and lower levels of trust. However, most empirical evidence for this relationship is focused on generalized trust, rather than more theoretically appropriate measures of group-based trust. This article evaluates the relationship between ethnic diversity – at the national, regional and local levels – and the degree to which coethnics are trusted more than non-coethnics, a value referred to here as the ‘coethnic trust premium’. Using public opinion data from sixteen African countries, this study finds that citizens of ethnically diverse states express, on average, more ethnocentric trust. However, within countries, regional ethnic diversity is associated with less ethnocentric trust. This same negative pattern between diversity and ethnocentric trust appears across districts and enumeration areas within Malawi. The article then shows, consistent with these patterns, that diversity is only detrimental to intergroup trust at the national level when ethnic groups are spatially segregated. These results highlight the importance of the spatial distribution of ethnic groups on intergroup relations, and question the utility of micro-level studies of interethnic interactions for understanding macro-level group dynamics.
政治极化时代中的价值观和政治倾向：
考察美国的党派偏见与意识形态之间的关系（1988-2012）
题目：Values and Political Predispositions in the Age of Polarization: Examining the Relationship between Partisanship and Ideology in the United States, 1988–2012
作者：Robert Lupton, 康涅狄格大学政治学系助理教授；Steven Smallpage, 史丹森大学政治学系助理教授；Adam Enders，路易斯维尔大学政治学系助理教授
摘要：在精英极化持续加剧的环境下，近几十年来，大众的意识形态与党派偏见之间的关联有所增强。鉴于核心价值观会形塑之后的政治倾向以及精英极化的明显不对称性，本文假设平等主义和道德传统主义减弱了意识形态和党派偏见之间的关系，只有在坚持保守主义价值取向的个体中，这一关系才会随着时间推移而加强。本文对1988年至2012年间美国大选研究调查的分析支持了这一假设。这一结果增强了学者们对核心价值观在塑造大众信仰体系中作用的理解，并证明了精英诱导在自由主义者和保守主义者之间的不对称性以及大众对其的接纳。
The correlation between ideology and partisanship in the mass public has increased in recent decades amid a climate of persistent and growing elite polarization. Given that core values shape subsequent political predispositions, as well as the demonstrated asymmetry of elite polarization, this article hypothesizes that egalitarianism and moral traditionalism moderate the relationship between ideology and partisanship in that the latter relationship will have increased over time only among individuals who maintain conservative value orientations. An analysis of pooled American National Election Studies surveys from 1988 to 2012 supports this hypothesis. The results enhance scholarly understanding of the role of core values in shaping mass belief systems and testify to the asymmetric nature and mass public reception of elite cues among liberals and conservatives.
多党制民主国家中的联盟博弈期
题目：Coalition Bargaining Duration in Multiparty Democracies
作者：Alejandro Ecker，曼海姆欧洲社会研究中心研究员；Thomas M. Meyer，维也纳大学政治学系助理教授
摘要：为何有些政府需要几周甚至几个月来组建，有些政府却只需要几天？尽管有丰富的文献研究政府的组建，但人们对其背后的博弈过程却知之甚少，这令人吃惊。本文采用了一个新的数据集以分析单个博弈回合所持续的时间；该数据集包含了19个欧洲民主国家中303次尝试进行博弈的行为。研究假设偏好相关性、意识形态的相似、现任职务和政党领导者的任期四个因素减少组成执政联盟博弈所需的时间。通过连接函数来解释观测结果的非随机选择过程，研究结果表明，除了诸如选举后的博弈以及政党制度的复杂性等系统性的背景因素外，这些特定行为体的因素也很重要。这些发现强调了在解释政府组建过程时需要同时考虑特定行为体因素和系统性因素。
Why do some government formation periods end after a few days, while others last for several weeks or even months? Despite the rich literature on government formation, surprisingly little is known about the underlying bargaining processes. This article introduces a new dataset on 303 bargaining attempts in nineteen European democracies to analyse the duration of individual bargaining rounds. The study hypothesizes that (1) preference tangentiality, (2) ideological proximity, (3) incumbency and (4) party leadership tenure decrease the duration of coalition bargaining. Employing a copula approach to account for the non-random selection process of the observations, it shows that these actor-specific factors matter in addition to systemic context factors such as post-election bargaining and party system complexity. These findings highlight the need to consider both actor-specific and systemic factors of the bargaining context to explain government formation.
该谁上报纸？政党竞选信息与媒体
题目：Who Gets into the Papers? Party Campaign Messages and the Media
作者：Thomas M. Meyer，维也纳大学政府学系教授；Martin Haselmayer，维也纳大学政府学系博士后；Markus Wagner，维也纳大学政府学系教授
摘要：政党和政客希望他们的信息转化为媒体报道来影响选民。本文检验了信息的内容和发送者属性是如何影响政党信息能否容易引起媒体关注的。基于对1613篇政党媒体的发布以及6512篇围绕多政党议会的媒体报道，本文提出，政党信息若是强调了对媒体和其他政党本就十分重要的关切，它们就更加容易进入新闻报道。讨论这些问题尤其能够帮助反对党和名不见经传的政客引起媒体的注意。这一结果证实了媒体议程设置和守门人作用的重要性，阐明了政党策略如何成功，并对理解政治平等和代议制有所启发。
Parties and politicians want their messages to generate media coverage and thereby reach voters. This article examines how attributes related to content and sender affect whether party messages are likely to get media attention. Based on content analyses of 1,613 party press releases and 6,512 media reports in a parliamentary, multiparty context, we suggest that party messages are more likely to make it into the news if they address concerns that are already important to the media or other parties. Discussing these issues may particularly help opposition parties and lower-profile politicians get media attention. These results confirm the importance of agenda setting and gatekeeping, shed light on the potential success of party strategies, and have implications for political fairness and representation.
超越风险率：从考克斯比例风险模型中生成预期的持续时间
题目：Beyond the Hazard Ratio: Generating Expected Durations from the Cox Proportional Hazards Model
作者：Jonathan Kropko, 弗吉尼亚大学政治系助理教授， Jeffrey Harden，圣母大学政治学系助理教授。
摘要：考克斯比例风险模型是政治学中用于久期分析的常用模型。用于分析结果的典型参数来自于风险函数(例如，风险比或风险率的百分比变化)。这些参数在本质上是模糊的，很多读者难以理解并且与研究人员对持续时间的实质关注不一致。作者提出了一个方法来计算考克斯模型里一个协变量发生某一特定变化的持续时间预期和边际变化情况。这些基于持续时间的参数与研究人员的理论兴趣非常吻合，并且很容易被大多数读者理解。作者通过对政治学三个子领域的文章进行重新分析，论证了该方法对考克斯模型结果的解释有实质性改进。
The Cox proportional hazards model is a commonly used method for duration analysis in political science. Typical quantities of interest used to communicate results come from the hazard function (for example, hazard ratios or percentage changes in the hazard rate). These quantities are substantively vague, difficult for many audiences to understand and incongruent with researchers’ substantive focus on duration. We propose methods for computing expected durations and marginal changes in duration for a specified change in a covariate from the Cox model. These duration-based quantities closely match researchers’ theoretical interests and are easily understood by most readers. We demonstrate the substantive improvements in interpretation of Cox model results afforded by the methods with reanalyses of articles from three subfields of political science.
地方种族多样性对以群体为中心的犯罪态度的影响
题目：The Influence of Local Ethnic Diversity on Group-Centric Crime Attitudes
作者：Frederik Hjorth，哥本哈根大学政治学系助理教授
摘要：许多研究为以群体为中心的政策态度提供了证据，即公民根据与可见的社会团体之间的关系来评价政策。现有的文献基本都指出了媒体形象、修辞和主要的政治赞助者在推动以群体为中心的态度上的作用。本文对该态度的另一个来源进行了理论分析和检验：与当地日渐增加的种族多样性的接触。以犯罪问题为重点，本文首先提出了一个理论，解释了地方性的背景下随机观测是如何导致种族偏见的。然后，通过两个大规模、具有全国代表性的数据集——关于公民群体和政策态度的数据集，它们包含的数据与地方种族多样性的登记数据相联系，每个数据跨度为20年；本文指出随着本地种族多样性的上升，对犯罪的态度与对移民的态度之间的联系更加紧密。研究表明，自下而上的关于群体政策联系的经验学习过程，对通常强调自上而下的、由精英施加影响的以群体为中心的态度起到了补充作用。
Several studies provide evidence of group-centric policy attitudes, that is, citizens evaluating policies based on linkages with visible social groups. The existing literature generally points to the role of media imagery, rhetoric and prominent political sponsors in driving group-centric attitudes. This article theorizes and tests an alternative source: exposure to rising local ethnic diversity. Focusing on the issue of crime, it first develops a theoretical account of how casual observation in the local context can give rise to ethnic stereotypes. Then, using two large, nationally representative datasets on citizen group and policy attitudes linked with registry data on local ethnic diversity, each spanning 20 years, it shows that crime attitudes become more strongly linked with immigration attitudes as local ethnic diversity rises. The results suggest that the typically emphasized ‘top-down’ influence on group-centric attitudes by elite actors is complemented by ‘bottom-up’ local processes of experiential learning about group–policy linkages.
接触暴力如何影响种族投票
题目：How Exposure to Violence Affects Ethnic Voting
作者：Dino Hadzic, 圣路易斯华盛顿大学政治学系博士；David Carlson，圣路易斯华盛顿大学政治学系博士；Margit Tavits，圣路易斯华盛顿大学政治学系教授
摘要：战争期间对种族暴力的接触如何影响普通公民的政治偏好？暴力频发的族群是否更倾向于拒绝战后种族问题的政治化？作者认为战争期间社接触暴力的经历巩固了民族认同，促进了民族内部的凝聚力，强化了对其他种族的不信任，从而使种族型政党成为最具吸引力的表达渠道，助长了种族问题的政治化。利用波斯尼亚在社群层面的战时伤亡数据以及战争前后的选举结果，作者发现上述论点得到了有力的支持。这些发现适用于许多稳健性检验。利用战后的调查数据，作者还为提出的因果机制提供了具有启发性的证据。
How does wartime exposure to ethnic violence affect the political preferences of ordinary citizens? Are high-violence communities more or less likely to reject the politicization of ethnicity post-war? We argue that community-level experience with wartime violence solidifies ethnic identities, fosters intra-ethnic cohesion and increases distrust toward non-co-ethnics, thereby making ethnic parties the most attractive channels of representation and contributing to the politicization of ethnicity. Employing data on wartime casualties at the community level and pre- as well as post-war election results in Bosnia, we find strong support for this argument. The findings hold across a number of robustness checks. Using post-war survey data, we also provide evidence that offers suggestive support for the proposed causal mechanism.
责任分担：收入、不平等与战斗意愿
题目：Burden Sharing: Income, Inequality and Willingness to Fight
作者： Christopher J. Anderson，华威大学经济与政治与国际研究系教授；Anna Getmansky，埃塞克斯大学政府学系助理教授；Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler，劳德政府、外交和战略学院高级讲师
摘要：什么能解释公民在战时为国而战的意愿呢？利用六波世界价值观调查数据，本文发现个体的战斗意愿与国家层面的收入不平等呈负相关。当收入高度不平等时，富人相比穷人更不愿战斗。不平等程度低时，富人和穷人的战斗意愿则没有显著差异。在不同国家中，收入不平等程度给富人带来的战斗意愿变化要高于穷人。本文为这些发现提出了几个解释。高度的不平等让富人更愿付钱以免于服役的观点得到了数据的支持。
What explains citizens’ willingness to fight for their country in times of war? Using six waves of the World Values Survey, this study finds that individual willingness to fight is negatively related with country-level income inequality. When income inequality is high, the rich are less willing to fight than the poor. When inequality is low, the poor and rich differ little in their willingness to fight. This change in the willingness to fight between low and high inequality countries is greater among the rich than among the poor. This article explores several explanations for these findings. The data are consistent with the argument that high inequality makes it more attractive for the rich to buy themselves out of military service.
编译/审校：康张城、施榕、吴温泉、杨端程、殷昊、赵德昊 编辑：郭静远
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