TE||A trunkful of bolívares
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导读
委内瑞拉恶性通胀
300万只能买一盒鸡蛋
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
A trunkful of bolívares
抱一捆玻利瓦尔（委内瑞拉币）
英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
Buttonwood
梧桐树
A trunkful of bolívares
抱一捆玻利瓦尔（委内瑞拉币）
How Venezuelans preserve their savings from hyperinflation—and the lessons for everyone else
委内瑞拉人如何在恶性通货膨中保值——以及带来的启示
ASK the chief investment officer of a fund-management firm how to spread your investments and you will be told to put so much in stocks, so much in bonds and something in hedge funds or private equity. Chances are that white-elephant buildings, eggs and long-life milk will not feature. But in Venezuela, where the inflation rate is in the tens of thousands, things that people elsewhere would shun for fear they will lose value have become stores of real wealth.
如果咨询基金公司投资总监如何合理构建投资组合，他们会建议将大部分资产分配至股票和债券，小部分配比于对冲基金和私募股权。而白象建筑（需要高额成本维护的资产）， 鸡蛋和保久乳（保存期较长的牛奶）绝不会纳入投资标的范围。但在委内瑞拉，通货膨胀率高达万倍，那些被其他国家认为易减值的投资产品在委内瑞拉却被当成可避险的有储存价值的标的资产。
That is why you can see scaffolding and other signs of a building boom dotted around Caracas, the capital of a country that has endured an economic collapse. Businesses need to park their earnings where they will not be wiped out by inflation. A smaller-scale response to galloping prices is the emerging “egg economy”. Eggs hold their value better than cash, for a while at least. They make for a convenient currency, too. It is easier to carry around a half-dozen eggs than a trunkful of banknotes. And many tradespeople would be happier to receive the eggs.
这就是为什么在加拉加斯（委内瑞拉首都）随处可见脚手架和新建建筑，加拉斯加是一个经历过经济大萧条的城市，企业需要把资金投放在不会因为通货膨胀而缩水的地方。这种小规模应对价格飞涨的策略成为了新兴的‘鸡蛋经济’，至少在现阶段鸡蛋比现金更具有价值，也成为了一种流通货币。随身携带半打鸡蛋比一捆钞票保值的多，所以很多商人更乐意收到鸡蛋。
There are plenty of lessons from Venezuela’s calamity, including for ordinary savers. An often-overlooked one concerns personal finances. In stable countries, the penalty for a careless approach to saving can hit you a long way in the future. It might be the drawn-out misery of a meagre income in retirement, say. In Venezuela bad decisions lead to ruin—and rather quickly. Keeping your head above water takes great care. A sure way to go under is to keep money in bolívares for any longer than it takes to buy essentials.
从委内瑞拉的恶性通胀教训中可获得不少启示，包括对普通储户。在经济稳定的国家，欠缺个人理财观念粗心大意的储户可能会在未来很长一段时间才会感受到损失，比如微薄的退休金所带来的痛苦。而在委内瑞拉，单一的储蓄会在短期内遭到毁灭性的减值，时刻保持警惕，打理好个人理财。可以肯定的是，在任何情况下持有玻利瓦尔（委内瑞拉货币）都远比购买必需品更容易破产。
注释：
calamity /kəˈlæmɪtɪ/ n.灾难，灾害
meagre /ˈmiːɡə/ adj . 贫弱的，贫乏的，poor
Episodes of hyperinflation are quite rare. Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University lists 57 cases, starting with France in the 1790s. It takes something extraordinary—war, revolution or epic incompetence—to mess things up on such a scale. The root cause is usually a chronic weakness in public finances. This might be because of looting by officials, lavish welfare spending or reliance on a single source of tax revenue. The government resorts to printing money to pay its bills. That feeds inflation. A vicious cycle ensures that it rises quickly. Because taxes are paid some time after the activity they relate to, rapid inflation erodes the value of tax receipts. More money is created to fill the gap in revenue. Inflation accelerates. The cycle turns.
发生恶性通货膨胀非常罕见。约翰霍普金斯大学的史蒂夫汉克列出了自18世纪90年代法国开始的57个相关案例。恶性通胀发生一般由于非同寻常的条件，比如战争、革命或政府当局特别不作为，并且在大规模上把事情搞得一团糟。 其根本原因通常是公共财政长期疲软。这可能是由于官员中饱私囊，或因为过度的财政支出或单一的税收来源。政府只能采取印钞来支付这些费用，由此推升了通胀。严重的恶性循环使得通货膨胀率急剧上升。由于税收是在其相关经济活动发生之后的一段时间内才支付的，因此快速的通货膨胀同时会侵蚀税收的价值。政府需印发更多货币来填补收入差距。通货膨胀进一步加速，恶性循环开始了。
They are the egg men. Venezuela fits this template, more or less. Its people were not completely unprepared. High inflation in the 1980s and 1990s taught the middle classes to keep a chunk of their savings offshore in dollar accounts. The financially astute switch between accounts in Miami and Caracas. But capital controls make it tricky to transfer large sums. Other inflation hedges are needed.
他们是储蛋男。委内瑞拉多多少少符合这一模式。委内瑞拉人并不是毫无准备。20世纪80年代和90年代的高通胀教训教会中产阶级将大量储蓄存入离岸美元账户，由此不断在迈阿密的美元账户和加拉加斯的委内瑞拉币之间的适时转换。但资本管制使得大笔资金转移变得棘手，还需寻求其他的通胀对冲方法。
One is property. When protests against Nicolás Maduro, the autocratic president, were at their height last year, some foreigners hoped to snap up homes at fire-sale prices. But there were no bargains. Property was too valuable as an inflation hedge. For a while, a car was as much a savings vehicle as a way to get from A to B. It was once possible to sell one for more than the purchase price in dollars. But cars have become less of a sellers’ market as people leave Venezuela and sell their belongings. Property prices, too, have stabilised in dollar terms. A shrewd minority are using the stockmarket as a sort of inflation-linked bank, buying shares to deposit cash and selling them to withdraw it. A favoured stock is Banco Mercantil, which has businesses outside Venezuela.
一种方法是投资房地产。去年，当针对专制总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的抗议活动达到顶峰时，一些外国人争相抢购低价出售的房产，但没有讨价还价。房地产是一样非常有效的通胀对冲工具。有一段时间，汽车作为一种价值储蓄工具，使得财富实现由A到B的转移。曾经还出现了以高于购买价格的价格出售一辆汽车。但随着人们逐渐离开委内瑞拉，出售他们的财物，汽车转卖不再那么有利可图。同样，以美元计价的房地产价格也逐渐趋于稳定。一些精明的少数派正利用股市作为一种能够抵御通胀的“银行”，存入现金买进股票，然后出售股票提取现金。一支备受青睐的股票是Mercantil银行（Banco Mercantil），因为该银行涉及委内瑞拉境外业务。
It is impossible to guard against extreme inflation with precision. For many it is hard to guard against it at all. The poor have few ways to do so. In this regard, what happens in Venezuela tallies with what happens elsewhere. A newish strain in academic finance examines how ordinary people manage their money. A survey of the literature by Cristian Badarinza, John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai sums up what has been learned so far. A key finding is that the wealthy and educated make fewer mistakes with their money. They invest in a broader range of assets, pay lower fees and are quicker to refinance their debts when interest rates change. The penalty the poor pay for their comparative lack of financial acumen is real, if not always visible.
精准地避开极度通胀是不可能的。对于多数国人来说这根本不可能，底层人民更是有着更少的应对选择。就这方面而言，世界各国都相似，委内瑞拉当然也并不例外。Cristian Badarinza，John Campbell和Tarun Ramadorai利用了一项较为新颖的金融理论分支来测试普通人如何理财。一份基于上述研究的调查报告对迄今所有测试结果做出总结。其中一个重要发现是富人和知识分子在理财上相对犯错次数更少。他们所投资的资产覆盖范围更广，支付的佣金更少，并且面对利率的变动能更迅速地反应并进行再融资。相对欠缺金融敏感度的底层百姓为此付出的代价便就真实存在了，即使这并不总能被人们所察觉。
The costs are more obvious in Venezuela. It thus provides a vivid lesson in why ordinary folk should pay closer attention to how they manage their money. Even quite small changes can make a big difference to long-term returns. To Venezuelans such wisdom is essential, because when you are coping with hyperinflation, the long term is next week.
这份“代价”在委内瑞拉尤为明显。因此，这给国民上了一堂生动的课——为何人们更应重视如何理财。甚至是微乎其微的变动也能给长期收益造成巨大的影响。对于委内瑞拉国民来说，这样的智慧是必要的，因为当你正着手应对超级通胀时，下周往往便是“末日”。
翻译组：
Olivia，女，教育行业，经济学人粉丝
Vivian，女，国际商务硕士， 经济学人粉丝
Jasmine， 女 ，税收专业大三学生， 经济学人粉丝
校核组：
Emily，女，金融民工，经济学人粉丝
Leon, 男，研究生在读，经济学人铁粉
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观点|评论|思考
本次观点由Alan全权执笔
Alan，男，金融工程硕士，经济学人粉丝
人类历史上最持久的货币通货膨胀实验依然在继续。
委内瑞拉2018年的通货膨胀率达到了惊人的13860%，17年的通胀率1090%，16年还“只是”254%（数据来自IMF）。预计委内瑞拉到年底通胀率会达到800000%，届时通胀状况堪比1923年的德国和2000年的津巴布韦。
经济学中，我们将价格比作“一只无形的手”，市场会跟随价格的变动将商品和资源分配到最有效的经济部门。但是在这样的恶性通胀下，价格已经失去了分配资源的能力了。具有长期价格性质的大宗商品这个时候替代了货币成为交易媒介，在这里委内瑞拉人民选择了鸡蛋。商品交换和物资生产很难进行，也难怪各大机构预计委内瑞拉2018年GDP下滑18%。委内瑞拉的问题源自双赤字问题。财政赤字和贸易赤字是一对孪生兄弟，基本上一国有其一赤字，另一个也会面临赤字。委内瑞拉央行并没有美联储那样的信用背书，且又不是国际货币，很难做到借新债还旧债。而且央行并不独立于政府，政府在面临双赤字之后之后加印货币来偿还债务，但是通胀一旦爆发就会难以抑制，最后滚雪球越滚越大。
委内瑞拉的赤字爆发又要追溯到国际油价下跌，使得贸易赤字出现。同时政府将石油公司国有化，可是又经营不善，使得贸易赤字的问题更加严重。
委内瑞拉眼下的状况十分糟糕，目前他们只能寄希望于熬过漫长的2018，等待2019年得到IMF的经济援助并重新树立起央行的货币信用，才能稳定经济。
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