Two states or one? 两个国家还是一个？| 经济学人精读笔记 / 四六文摘

选自 TE20210529，Leaders

The peace process has become an obstacle to progress.

和平进程已经变成发展的阻碍。

Have more time and effort ever been devoted to peace to so little effect? America began overseeing talks between the Israelis and Palestinians three decades ago. But the Holy Land remains contested by two peoples who cannot bring themselves to live together. The fighting in May that left 242 Palestinians and ten Israelis dead accomplished nothing except to clear the field for the next round of fighting.

Oversee 监视，监督

Contest 争夺，竞争

Accomplish 完成，实现

最后一句的主干是：The fighting accomplished nothing.

为和平投入更多的时间和精力却收效甚微？30年前，美国开始监督以色列和巴勒斯坦之间的会谈。但是圣地仍被两个不能生活在一起的民族争夺着。5月份造成242名巴勒斯坦人和10名以色列人死亡的战斗，除了为下一轮战争扫清了战场，没有取得任何成果。

圣地是在约旦河与地中海之间的一个区域，包括约旦河的东岸。“圣地”这个词传统上是“圣经以色列地”以及历史上的“巴勒斯坦地区”的同义词，如今通常指现代以色列、巴勒斯坦领土、西约旦、南黎巴嫩部分地区和西南叙利亚，犹太人、基督徒、穆斯林均以此处为神圣之地。

The peace process set up in the Oslo accords in 1993 aims to create two states that agree to disagree—using land swaps, security guarantees, a deal to share Jerusalem and a limited “right of return” for Palestinians. Israel’s prize was to be a thriving democracy and a sanctuary for Jews; for Palestinians it was the promise of self-rule. At times, peace has been tantalisingly close, only to recede again amid mutual recrimination.

Agree to disagree 搁置争议;求同存异

Right of return 指的是巴勒斯坦难民重返家园

Sanctuary 避难所

Tantalisingly 令人心急地

Recrimination 指责

Discrimination 歧视

set up …… in 1993 是被动语态作状语，修饰主语 The peace process。谓语动词是aim to （打算做某事）。

1993年在奥斯陆协议建立的和平进程，打算创建两个求同存异的国家 — 利用土地交换，安全保障，共享耶路撒冷的协议以及对巴勒斯坦人有限的“返乡权”。以色列的奖赏是繁荣的民主和犹太人的避难所；对于巴勒斯坦人来说，这是自治的承诺。有时候，和平已经近在咫尺，不料又在相互指责之中消失退却了。

《奥斯陆协议》：1993年8月20日以色列总理拉宾和巴勒斯坦解放组织主席阿拉法特在挪威首都奥斯陆达成的和平协议。

Today, however, instead of being a pathway to peace, the two-state “process” is barring the route. Everyone pretends that peace is still on the agenda when, in reality, it is not. That is a formula for strife. Almost everything that matters can be deferred with the promise that, one day, it will be resolved in a deal that is perpetually over the horizon. It is also a formula that, by default, leads to a single state.

Bar 阻挡

Strife 冲突

Defer 推迟

Over the horizon 即将来临，已露端倪

第四句，that matters 作为定语从句修改主语 everything. matter是不及物动词，表示“要紧，重要”。谓语是 be deferred。

然而，现在，两国“进程”没有成为和平之路，反而正在阻碍这条道路。每个人都假装和平仍是在议程上，但实际上并非如此。这是一种冲突的模式。伴随着我们承诺，总有一天，它会通过一项永远遥不可及的协议来解决，几乎每件重要的事都可以被推迟。这默认也是一个导致单一状态的惯用语。（注：这句话为字面翻译，我没明白这句话的意思。）

The idea that the two-state framework is harmful will not come as news to the Palestinians. Under it, the vision of a viable, contiguous, sovereign Palestine has receded. Palestinian territory in the West Bank is an archipelago in an expanding sea of Israeli settlements that are illegal under international law. Gaza is a solitary island, cut off by an Israeli and Egyptian blockade. The Palestinian Authority was supposed to be a government in waiting. Young Palestinians look on it as the agent of Israel’s occupation, even as they laud Hamas, the violent Islamist group that rules Gaza, for standing up to Israel.

Contiguous 毗邻的，相邻的

Archipelago 群岛，列岛

Laud 赞美

Stand up to 抵抗，经得起

Be supposed to 应该

that are illegal under international law. 修饰的是Israeli settlements，因为在这个句子中定语从句的谓语动词是are。

两国框架有害的想法对于巴勒斯坦人来说不算新闻。在这个想法下，建立切实可行的，相邻的，独立自主的巴勒斯坦的愿望渐渐渺茫。巴勒斯坦在约旦河西岸的领土是以色列不断扩张的定居点中的一个群岛。这些定居点依据国际法是非法的。加沙是一个被以色列和埃及的封锁的孤岛。巴勒斯坦权力机构应该是一个等待中的政府。年轻的巴勒斯坦人将其视为以色列占领的代理人。尽管他们赞赏哈马斯（统治加沙的伊斯兰暴力组织）反抗以色列的行为。

In place of the stagnant two-state effort, the new Palestinian vision is to demand individual rights in one state. Those in Gaza and the West Bank resent needing Israel’s permission (often withheld) to travel to see their families. The recent fighting was fuelled by a dispute over property in East Jerusalem, where most Palestinians are mere “residents”. Even Israeli Arabs complain of inequality and rose up during the fighting in Gaza.

In place of 取代，代替

Resent doing sth 讨厌某事

Rise up 上升，起义

取代两国停滞不前的努力，巴勒斯坦的新愿景是在一个国家内获得个人权利。加沙和约旦河西岸的居民讨厌需要以色列的许可（通常不被允许）才能探望家人。近期的冲突是由东耶路撒冷的财产纠纷引发，在那里大多数巴勒斯坦人仅仅是“居民”。甚至以色列的阿拉伯人也抱怨不平等，在加沙的战斗中奋起反抗。

That leaves Israel in a quandary. It has thrived under Oslo. GDP per head has grown by over half in the past 30 years. Its Iron Dome missile-defence system largely shields it from Hamas’s attacks. A divided, weak Palestinian leadership suits Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, who shows little interest in the Palestinians. And it’s not just him: the conflict did not feature much in any of the four elections Israel has held since 2019.

Quandary 困窘

Feature in 在某物起重要作用

这让以色列进退两难。依靠奥斯陆协议，它得以蓬勃发展。过去30年，人均GDP增长了一半以上。它的铁穹导弹防御系统很大程度上防护来自哈马斯的袭击。分裂软弱的巴勒斯坦领导层与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡相配，他对巴勒斯坦人没有什么兴趣。不仅是他，（双边）冲突对以色列自2019年以来的四次选举都没有产生太大影响。

This cannot last. The Oslo figleaf lets Israel claim that the occupation will be undone in a final deal. As the interim power in charge, it has no duty to extend full rights to the West Bank. But 54 years after the six-day war, the idea of a temporary occupation rings increasingly hollow.

Figleaf 遮羞布

Undo 解开，消除

Interim 临时的，暂时的

Hollow 徒有其表的，无价值的

这种情况不可持续。奥斯陆遮羞布让以色列声称占领将在最终协议中被撤销。作为临时政权，它没有责任将全部权利延伸到约旦河西岸。但6天战争后的54年，临时占领的想法听起来越来越没有价值。

54年前，也就是1967年，这年发生了第三次中东战争。以色列在这次战争中占领了约旦河西岸和加沙地带，同时还占领了6000多平方公里的埃及西奈半岛、1600平方公里的叙利亚戈兰高地、埃及管辖的加沙地带，并夺走了东耶路撒冷，并宣布整个耶路撒冷为以色列的首都。

可以这样说，以色列的现有领土，是在第三次中东战争奠定下来的。

Without hope of an agreement, Israel’s critics have begun to talk of a “one-state reality”. This challenges Israel: as the Holy Land has as many Jews as Palestinians, it cannot remain both Jewish and democratic while permanently controlling all of that territory. Many critics of Israeli policy, including some liberal Jews, now compare the Palestinians’ treatment to apartheid.

Compare A to B 把A比作B

apartheid 种族隔离

由于没有达成协议的希望，以色列的批评者开始谈论“一国事实”。这给以色列带来挑战：因为圣地的犹太人和巴勒斯坦人一样多，它不可能在永久控制所有领土的同时保持犹太教和民主。许多以色列政策的批评者，包括一些自由派犹太人，现在将巴勒斯坦人的待遇比作种族隔离。

The Palestinian demand for rights is resonating abroad, not least in the halls of America’s Congress. By allying Israel to the Republican Party, Mr Netanyahu has helped make the Palestinians part of America’s culture wars. Progressives in the Democratic Party have started to declare that Palestinian lives matter.

Resonate 使共鸣

Progressive 改革派，进步人士

巴勒斯坦人对权利的要求在国外引起共鸣，不仅仅是在美国国会的大厅里。通过让以色列与共和党结盟，内塔尼亚胡帮助巴勒斯坦人成为美国文化战争的一部分。民主党的进步人士开始声称巴勒斯坦的生命至关重要。

《亚伯拉罕协议》：美国总统特朗普2020年8月宣布，在美国的牵线下，以色列与阿联酋达成一项历史性的和平协议。双边关系将全面正常化，甚至会朝向建交方向前进).

More important, Mr Netanyahu’s “anti-solutionism” leaves his country less able than ever to navigate a future with the Palestinians. His embrace of the Jewish far right makes eruptions more likely even as it fires up militant Palestinians—witness the recent communal violence in Israeli cities. The wall that seals off Israel from the West Bank has led to deeper distrust between Arabs and Jews. The settlements, once thought negotiable, have become permanent obstacles to peace.

Seal off 封闭

更重要地，内塔尼亚胡的“反解决主义”使他的国家比以前更无力与巴勒斯坦人共同驾驭未来。它对犹太极右势力的支持使事态更可能爆发，即使这激起了巴勒斯坦好战分子的怒火 — 最近在以色列城市发生的社区暴力就是明证。从约旦河西岸封闭以色列的墙加深了阿拉伯人和犹太人之间的不信任。这些曾经被认为可谈判的定居点已经成为和平的永久障碍。

The status quo has served Israel well but is not sustainable. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning that requires a new formula for living next to the Palestinians. Adhering to Oslo while undermining it in practice feeds the reality of one state—because it makes two states harder to realise.

Status quo 现状

Reckoning 计算，报应

Undermine 暗中颠覆，暗中破坏

现状对以色列有利但不可持续。早晚估计需要一个与巴勒斯坦人生活在一起的方案。坚持奥斯陆协议的同时又在实践中破坏它，这助长了一个国家的事实 — 因为它使两个国家更难实现。

Instead of imposing peace in one top-down stroke of diplomatic brilliance, a more realistic aim would be to build it patiently from the bottom up. The guiding principle should be to focus on the human and civil rights of Palestinians. Israel will not grant Palestinians full rights tomorrow. But it can make its Arab citizens more equal by devoting resources to their communities. It could make the administration of Jerusalem more inclusive, so that tiffs over fencing do not escalate into war. It must take more responsibility for the suffering in the West Bank and Gaza—and work harder to alleviate it.

So that 为了，因此，以便

Tiff 争执；拌嘴

与其通过一个自上而下的外交手段强求和平，一个更现实的目标是从下往上耐心构建和平。指导原则应该是聚焦巴勒斯坦人的人权和公民权利。以色列明天不会给予巴勒斯坦充分的权利。但是，通过将资源投入到社区，它可以使阿拉伯公民更加平等。它能够让耶路撒冷更具包容性，这样围绕围墙的争执就不会升级为战争。它必须为西岸和加沙的苦难承担更多的责任，并更加努力减轻苦难。

A focus on rights also makes Palestinian leaders more accountable. They cannot easily demand rights from Israel that they deny their own people. Mahmoud Abbas is in the 17th year of a four-year term as president. His Fatah party is sclerotic. Hamas tramples the rights of its people, including women and minorities. Better Palestinian leaders are a prerequisite for peace.

Sclerotic 僵化的；僵硬的

Trample 踩；践踏；侵犯

对权利的关注也让巴勒斯坦领导人更加责任。他们不能轻易要求以色列给予他们剥夺自己人民的权利。马哈茂德·阿巴斯是任职17年的总统（任期四年一届）。他的法塔赫党僵化了。哈马斯践踏包括妇女和少数民族在内的人民的权利。更好的巴勒斯坦领导人是和平的先决条件。

法塔赫党，巴勒斯坦政治派别-民族解放运动，阿巴斯为中央委员会主席。

2004年11月巴勒斯坦领导人阿拉法特逝世后，阿巴斯出任巴勒斯坦民族权力机构临时主席。

Abandoning Oslo carries risks, obviously. Unbound, Israeli settlers might push farther into Palestinian territory. Hamas, which wants a single state in which Palestinians would outweigh Jews, might redouble its resistance. But today’s path is even riskier.

Redouble 加强；加倍

显然，放弃“奥斯陆（协议）”会有风险。如果不受约束，以色列定居者可能进一步推进到巴勒斯坦领土。哈马斯想建立一个巴勒斯坦人多于犹太人的国家，可能会加倍抵抗。但是现在的道路风险更高。

Peace always starts by acknowledging reality. It takes root by improving lives and renewing politics. That can flourish into something new. Then, one day, the parties can start talking again about a deal, whether of one state or two.

Take root 生根，扎根

和平总是从承认现实开始。通过改善生活，更新政策打下根基。可以发展成新的东西。然后，有一天，各方可以重新开始讨论一项协议：不管是一个国还是两个国。

“王不留说”