经济学人社论||德国经济前景黯淡，近期对财政刺激政策呼声高涨
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Samantha，女，不吃米饭，邓伦未婚妻
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Take aim
有的放矢
英文部分选自经济学人20190824期Leaders版块
Take aim
有的放矢
The case for more fiscal stimulus in Germany is overwhelming. Here’s how to do it
近期，在德国主张加大财政刺激政策力度的呼声高涨，具体情况如下。
On august 19th the Bundesbank warned that Germany could soon be in recession. The economy shrank in the second quarter of the year; two consecutive quarterly contractions are often taken to define a downturn. In June industrial production was 5.2% lower than a year earlier, the biggest fall in a decade. Some investors hope that the run of bad news will persuade Germany to overcome its deep-rooted suspicion of fiscal stimulus. Sure enough, a day before the central bank’s warning, Olaf Scholz, the finance minister, said the government could afford a hit to its finances of €50bn ($56bn)—about 1.4% of GDP.
德国联邦银行在8月19日发出警告，德国经济可能不久会出现萧条。今年第二季度，德国经济萎缩，通常情况下，连续两个季度经济萎缩就会被定义为经济衰退。6月，德国工业产出同比下降了5.2%，也是十年来最大的一次下降。部分投资者希望恶讯频出能使德国打消对财政刺激根深蒂固的疑虑。果然，德国联邦银行发出警告的前一天，德国财长奥拉夫.肖尔茨（Olaf Scholz）就表示德国政府可以拿出高达500亿欧元（560亿美元）的支出来抵御经济危机，这笔费用约占GDP的1.4%。
注：
1. a hit to its finances of €50bn：德国上一次经济危机损耗了500亿欧元，这里表示德国财长肖尔茨表示德国有能力筹集到这个数目来应对呼之欲出的经济危机。
2. a run of： a period of sth good or bad happening; a series of successes or failures 一段(幸运或倒霉的)时光；一系列(成功或失败)
Eg: a run of good / bad luck 一连串好运 / 厄运
Unfortunately Mr Scholz has shown little desire to use that money now. Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she sees no need. That is lamentable. The case for using fiscal stimulus to fight the downturn has recently become overwhelming.
不幸的是，肖尔茨先生目前暂无计划使用这笔费用。德国总理安格拉·默克尔（Angela Merkel）也已表示没有这个必要。这实属遗憾。近期，德国主张通过财政刺激政策来抵御经济衰退的呼声越来越高。
注:
德媒：德国准备在衰退时放弃平衡预算
https://www.guancha.cn/economy/2019_08_17_513966.shtml
There are arguments to be made against higher deficits when economies weaken and inflation is low. Spending can be unaffordable because the government is already too indebted. Some critics argue that it is up to central bankers, not finance ministers, to cope with the economic cycle. A worry is that more borrowing will drive up interest rates, deterring private-sector investment.
经济衰退和低通胀时期，经常有反对高赤字的观点出现。政府已债务累累，难以负担开销。一些评论家认为解决周期性经济问题的责任在中央银行，而非财政部长。令人担忧的是，更多借款将会抬高利率，进而阻挠私营企业投资。
None of these applies to Germany. Stimulus is patently affordable. The government can borrow for 30 years at negative interest rates. As a result, it could probably spend double what Mr Scholz suggests for years and still keep its debt-to-gdp ratio steady at around a prudent 60%. Central bankers are hamstrung. Short-term interest rates cannot fall much further. The European Central Bank is likely to start buying more assets in September, which will help but may not be enough. And crowding out investment is not a concern. Negative rates are a sign that Europe is awash with savings and bereft of plans to put them to use. If Germany deployed them to improve its decaying infrastructure, its firms would probably invest more, not less.
然而，上述的情况对德国并不适用。德国完全有资金加大财政刺激政策力度。德国政府能以负利率借款30年，这样的话，德国政府的开销大概能达到肖尔茨所提议的两倍，同时其债务占GDP的比率还能稳定维持在60%上下的良好水平。中央银行束手无策。短期利率已不能继续下调。欧洲中央银行很可能于九月开始购置资产，这会有些帮助，但作用不会太大。同时，也不用担心出现企业不愿投资的情形。一旦出现负利率，就意味着欧洲人选择将大量资金攥在自己手中，而不愿让资金在市场流通。如果德国政府能利用这些资金升级其陈旧的基础设施，那么德国公司很可能就会加大投资。
注:
1. What Is the Debt-to-GDP Ratio?
The debt-to-GDP ratio is the ratio of a country's public debt to its gross domestic product (GDP). By comparing what a country owes with what it produces, the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates its ability to pay back its debts. Often expressed as a percentage, this ratio can also be interpreted as the number of years needed to pay back debt if GDP is dedicated entirely to debt repayment.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtgdpratio.asp
2. prudent debt: A debt-to-GDP ratio of 60% is quite often noted as a prudential limit for developed countries.
What is prudent debt
https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/speech/what-prudent-debt
3. Is there an optimal debt-to-GDP ratio?
https://voxeu.org/debates/commentaries/there-optimal-debt-gdp-ratio
The country needs looser fiscal policy in both the long term and the short term. It has neglected infrastructure in pursuit of needlessly restrictive fiscal targets, most recently its “black zero” ban on deficits. This has, for example, left 11% of its bridges in poor condition and its railways plagued by delays. Germany should replace the deficit ban with a rule allowing borrowing for investment spending. It should use tax breaks to encourage its private firms, innovation laggards, to invest more too, including in research and development.
无论是从长期还是短期来看，德国需要更宽松的财政政策。为了追求过于严格的财政目标，如最近几年的零赤字率的财政平衡政策令，德国忽视了基础设施建设，这使得国内11%的桥梁都处于年久失修的状况，铁路也饱受延误的困扰。德国应当允许通过借贷进行投资的政策代替零赤字率政策，用减税政策来鼓励私有公司、创新不足的企业在研发等方面进行更多投资。
注：
“black zero”: The German proposal is characterised by the simple idea that optimal fiscal policy is characterised by a balanced budget. From this ideal, which is known to the German public as ‘black zero’, then results the expenditure path.
In the short term Germany needs demand. This necessity has grown in strength this year as the economy has deteriorated. Although unemployment is just 3.1%, the Bundesbank has warned that joblessness could soon rise. The domestic economy cannot endure brutal global trading conditions for ever.
短期内德国亟需拉动需求，随着今年经济的恶化，这项行动的必要性不断增长。尽管目前失业率仅有3.1%，但德国央行已发出警告表示失业率可能很快就会攀升，毕竟德国国内经济无法在严峻的全球贸易环境中永远地保持良好。
It would be better to use fiscal policy to prevent a deep downturn than to wait for recession to bring about a bigger deficit of its own accord. If a preventive stimulusturned out to be premature, the worst that could happen is slightly higher inflation than today’s 1.1%—which would in any case help the ECB hit its inflation target of close to 2%. A little more inflation would also even out imbalances in competitiveness between Germany and the rest of the euro zone.
德国最好采取财政刺激政策防止经济严重衰退，而不是等待经济疲软后导致自身更大的赤字。就算这样的财政刺激政策采取过早，最坏的结果也不过是比当前1.1%的通胀率更高一点，而这也将有助于欧洲央行达到接近于2%的通胀目标。稍高一些的通胀甚至还能缓解德国和欧元区其他国家之间的竞争力失衡情况。
Unfortunately infrastructure projects take time to get going. They face planning hurdles and bottlenecks in the construction industry. The federal government has already struggled to spend all of its existing meagre infrastructure budget.
遗憾的是，基础设施项目的启动需要时间，项目面临建筑行业的规划障碍和瓶颈。联邦政府甚至没能花光当前微薄的基础设施预算。
The best thing, therefore, would be tosupplement a long-term programme of infrastructure investment with an immediate, temporary boost, such as payroll-tax cuts, designed to forestall a downturn. Germany stands to benefit from both prongs of this strategy. Continuing to reject them is fiscal folly.
因此，德国最好的办法是采取长期的基础设施投资方案，辅以即刻的临时财政刺激政策，例如减少工资税。这可以预防经济低迷产生的不利。这两个方案都将让德国受益，但继续抵制这一战略则是国家财政政策的愚蠢。
翻译组：
Wesley，男，自由职业，经济学人铁粉
Lauretta，女， 法学搬运工一枚，经济学粉丝
Rex，男，口译研究生， 立志成为同传 经学钢粉
Cinda，女，英语花痴 经济学粉 英语、音乐、旅行、阅读、运动一个也不能少
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Yao，男，上外高材生，北大苗子
Yo，女，种下过流星，立志不做大鸵鸟
Carole，女 ，经济硕士 ，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上
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观点|评论|思考
本次评论由Very独家奉献
VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者
想要从这里了解宏观经济政策分析的同学显然可以绕道而行了，隔壁财经板块的阿兰哥哥（Alan）有详细的解释，甚至居然还常有令人头痛的数学公式！如果只是想听段相声，或者扯个咸蛋，那就暂且稍作停留，毕竟家境贫寒嘛。
经济学实在是一门令人着迷的科学，它告诉我如果有一个政策，如果在实施之前大众是不知情的，那它很有可能会成功，如果不幸被许多人提前知道了，那么这个政策就可能失效了。大概世界上再也没有比这更有趣的科学了吧。这与单电子双缝干涉延迟实验有惊人的相似之处，你中途去获取信息产生的结果与你不去中途获取信息产生的结果是完全不一样的。所以我强烈建议研究量子物理的科学家们去研究下宏观经济学，虽然大概率是不屑的。可能有人争辩说政策这个结果的区别是有人的因素，包括心理因素在作用，所以会导致结果的不同，但是我们对于这个单电子的观察也是人为因素的一种，包括也有心理因素在里面，毕竟你只要去观测总是会有个心理预期的吧。
让我来小结一下上面的内容：有一种现象，只要你不去观察（或者你不去做任何能获取相关信息的动作），它就能表现出结果1，但是一旦你做了，无论是多么得隐匿，它就表现出结果2，而且结果1和2是完全不同的，无法用同一种理论来解释。当然由于经济学家们被打脸打习惯了，所以他们还是会试着用各种脑洞大开的想法去解释这类现象，物理学家们虽然也想如此，但是大概是宅男总是脸皮比较薄，也就只能在私底下探讨了。
这一类的现象，无论是宏观政策上的，亦或是单粒子的双缝观察试验，它们打破的是人类社会的一种共识：因果律。就像四五百年前颠覆人类认知的地心说一般，科学最大的魅力在于自我否定，它是一种生命力极其旺盛的墙头草，哪对往哪倒，与宗教那些令人赞叹的永守某个信条确实大相径庭。因果律如果被推翻，那可能会使得我们在通往星辰大海的路上更进一步，毕竟永生和星际旅行是每个幼时仰望星空就镌刻在心里人的终极梦想，颠覆任何认知都不可怕，可怕的是你已经没有了梦想，在梦里都不敢想的那种。
注：B站av11561410/av11761018/av11967672这几个是上述物理内容比较细致的描述，有兴趣的同学可以去看看，虽然目前还没有完美解释这类现象的理论出现。但是只要人类存在下去，总会有水落石出的一天，黎曼猜想也一样！
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