脱钩？中非法郎和西非法郎命运几何

核心观点：

• XAF(中非法郎）和XOF（西非法郎）覆盖人口1.5亿，作为法属国家下遗留的制度惯性，依然是非洲经济举足轻重的基石。

• 中非法郎国家主要依靠农产品等，国家收入稳定，脱钩压力较小。

• 西非法郎国家受石油的大宗商品价格拖累，贬值压力上升，但偿付能力尚且充足，短期脱钩压力不大，中期待观察。

• 如果欧元本身崩溃，XAF和XOF大概率重新挂钩法国法郎，也可能是获得独立货币制度的契机。

XAF和XOF的来历

非洲金融共同体法郎区是根据一系列经济和金融协定建立的，法国曾通过这些协定对它的殖民地实施管理。二战以前，法属殖民地都把它们自己的货币以平价与法国法郎挂钩。战后，太平洋地区殖民地的货币合并为一种单一货币，称为法属太平洋殖民地法郎（CFP），其余所有国家（绝大部分在非洲）的货币合并为法属非洲殖民地法郎。

非洲各国相继独立后，出现了两个法郎区，各区对法郎的定义各异。在西非经货联盟内使用XOF，称为“非洲金融共同体法郎（Communauté financière d’Afrique）”；而在中非中央银行各成员国内使用XAF，称为“中部非洲金融合作法郎（Coopération financière en Afrique centrale）”。

• 西非联盟8个成员国（贝宁、布基纳法索、科特迪瓦、几内亚比绍、马里、尼日尔、塞内加尔及多哥）

• 中非共同体6个成员国（喀麦隆、中非、刚果、加蓬、赤道几内亚与乍得）以及科摩罗。

固定汇率的维系

各参加国的中央银行在法国财政部设立了“业务帐户”，国家50%的外汇储备必须存入该帐户，且储备量必须能够偿付20%的国家短期债务。如有必要，可对此帐户进行透支。

法国财政部成为事实上的共同央行，严格的控制各国的货币发行量。这些规定保证了货币的可兑换性，允许资本在该法郎区流动，并通过制定共同的贸易和金融政策，鼓励扩大国际贸易。

棉花价格1990-1994

固定汇率天然的优势是促进联系，但经济发展极度不协调后，固定汇率就不再牢不可破。西非法郎区（即西非经货联盟）在经过上世纪60年代至80年代中期的黄金发展时期之后，经济形势开始恶化。在国际货币基金组织的要求下，1994年1月12日西非中央银行宣布西非法郎贬值50%，由原来的50西非法郎兑换1法国法郎贬值到100西非法郎兑换1法国法郎，后挂钩欧元 1:655.957。

西非法郎短期压力尚可控，中期待观察

先说西非法郎，倚重石油出口的西非各国在国际油价大幅下降时，的确面临比较大的压力，这里援引渣打银行的XOF脱钩指标体系，主要考虑国家竞争力、经济延续性、大宗商品价格、增长速度和政治。可以看出西非法郎的贬值压力确实大大增加。

但目前西非各国持有的外汇储备大约可以偿付短期债务的65%，远远高于法国财政部设定的20%的限制，因此短期不会触发偿付危机。同时贬值需要合作区各国点头同意，也还有很长的路要走。

（油价是影响西非法郎的主要因素）

（2014年以来外储下降一半）

中非法郎国家收入稳定，脱钩压力小

中非法郎国家主要依赖农产品（可可、棉花等），两个最大的经济体科特迪瓦逐步从政变的阴影中走出来，而塞内加尔则经历了目前这几年最快的增速。简言之，经济稳定，贬值压力很小。

英文原文：

CFA XAF XOF De-Peg Risk

Background

The CFA franczone has been in place since 1945. It comprises two separate monetary areas. Eacharea has its own common currency, the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro ata fixed exchange rate (1 EUR = 655.957 CFA). Despite sharing parity, they aretwo different currencies – XOF and XAF.

·        8 countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)with XOF, and

·        6 countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community(CEMAC) with XAF.

Debate around the CFA franc goes beyond the costs/advantages of a fixed exchange rate regime and the optimality of monetary union. Given the system that links the region to France, the former colonial power, society and some economists question the peg from a sovereignty standpoint. But for now most policy makers in the region remain in favour ofthe existing current arrangement.

The central banks of these two zones – the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) for WAEMU and the Bank of theCentral African States (BEAC) for CEMAC – have supranational status. For each zone, the reserves of member states are pooled; members have no independent monetary policy and no ability to undermine the central bank’s independence ormonetise public deficits.

This current regime of fixed exchange rate against EUR draws its credibility from monetary agreements with France that,via the French Treasury, guarantee the convertibility of the CFA franc and provide the central banks with an overdraft facility to meet liquidity needs.As counterparty to this guarantee, 50% of their reserves must be placed withinthe French Treasury. The reserves must amount to at least 20% of central bankshort-term liabilities. If the reserves are below this level for more than onequarter, the central banks must take corrective measures (interest rateincreases, credit rationing, and surrendering of the available foreigncurrencies available).

The CFA franc monetary union is totally different from the euro area: the CFA zone is pegged to an international currency, and the peg is backed by France. France can provide liquidity to support the system via the overdraft facility but there is no fiscal solidarity either from France (which guarantees only the convertibility) or between CFA franc-zone members. There is no obligation to bail-out should a fiscal crisisarise in a CFA franc member (several have defaulted in the past on bothdomestic and external debt). In practice though, France has often supportedcountries facing difficult periods (e.g. Senegal or Cote d’Ivoire).

CEMAC (XAF)

The oil-dependent CEMAC is under significant pressure due to declining FX reserves.

The CEMAC region is clearly facing difficulties, but CEMAC members do not yet need to use the French Treasury overdraft facility (this happened several times before the 1994 devaluation; but not again since). The agreementwith France states that the central bank’s foreign assets should cover 20% ofits short-term liabilities; this ratio was c.65% in Q3-2016.

Political considerations matter more than economic ones. Devaluationis a political decision that needs to be agreed by all the heads of state and would take a long time.

The Standard Chartered CFA franc de-pegging barometer for the CEMAC shows pressure to de-peg. (Thebarometer broadly tracks (1) competitiveness, (2) sustainability, (3) commodityprices, (4) growth performance, and (5) political conditions. It is updated several times a year when thelatest data becomes available).

WAEMU (XOF)

In the more diversified WAEMU,there is little pressure on the peg and no devaluation in sight.

WAEMU"s two largest economies are growing fast; Cote d’Ivoire is recovering after a political crisis, while Senegal is experiencing its highest growth rates in more than a decade due to higher investment.

Even if CEMAC were required to devalue (not expected), the current WAEMU peg would likely stay.

Historical perspective: 1994 devaluation

When the CFA franc (both XOF and XAF) was devalued in 1994, it was clear for many years before that such action would be necessary at some point(in the late 1980s there was already discussion about the need to devalue).

A prolonged economic crisis coupled with a large and long-lasting appreciation of the French franc at the time meant there was little choice.

In 1994, it took a long time to reach consensus on devaluation within the zone

EUR break up impact on CFA

There is no consistent research on a possible EUR break up impact onCFA, because EUR break up is seen as a very remote risk at the moment.

France"s future is particularly relevant for CFA, given its specialrole as a former colonial power, major economic and military partner andtreasury counterparty. On the one hand, the history could repeat itself and if France leaves the Eurozone, the CFA can be re-pegged against the new French franc. On the other hand, it could be an opportunity for the CFA members todemonstrate their increasing independence from the former colonial master andre-peg to the remaining EUR or USD, or stop pegging altogether