【新刊速递】《太平洋评论》The Pacific Review, Vol. 34, No.1, 2021. / 四六文摘

期刊简介

The Pacific Review《太平洋评论》是太平洋地区研究的主要平台，作为跨学科期刊，其宗旨和目标为打破研究领域之间以及学术界、新闻界、政府和商界之间的壁垒，重点关注政策问题。2019年该刊的影响因子为1.633，在区域研究类SSCI期刊中排名11/77，在国际关系类SSCI期刊中排名第35/95。

本期编委

【编译】钱靓王芷汀李月云程朵依石雨宸戎秦婴

【审校】黄慧彬杨沛鑫姚寰宇

【排版】秦子宁

【美编】游钜家

本期目录

1.中国气候政策的战略叙事：对中国话语体系的三个阶段的分析

Strategic narratives in China’s climate policy: Analysing three phases in China’s discourse coalition

2.中国和金砖国家在重塑全球经济治理上的局限性

China, the BRICS, and the limitations of reshaping global economic governance

3. 和谐周边：新时代中国周边战略

Harmonizing the periphery: China’s neighborhood strategy

4. 冷战后中国如何看待朝鲜的改革意愿及其对中国对朝政策的影响

How China views North Korea’s readiness to reform and its influence on China’s North Korea policy in the post-Cold War era

5. 讨价还价互动的再思考：以等级制视角看朝核危机

Bargaining interactions reconsidered: the Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis viewed through the lens of hierarchy

6. 安倍时代的日本外交与安全政策：从新保守主义与新自主到务实现实主义

Japan’s Foreign and Security Policy under Abe: from neoconservatism and neoautonomy to pragmatic realism

中国气候政策的战略叙事：对中国话语体系的三个阶段的分析

【题目】Strategic narratives in China’s climate policy: Analysing three phases in China’s discourse coalition

【作者】Yuhan Zhang，比利时根特大学博士生；Jan Orbie，比利时根特大学副教授。

【摘要】

在过去的几十年里，我们见证了中国在全球气候谈判中的地位转变，学术研究和政策也都对此越来越感兴趣。目前的研究主要集中于对政策的规范或实证分析，而本文将从系统和国家层面战略性地分析中国的气候政策。理论上讲，本文关注国际关系中的叙事转变，并通过建立一个分析框架将战略叙事理论与我们对中国话语语境的独特界定相结合。通过研究中国的“话语体系”——政府、知识社群和官方媒体，我们将该分析框架应用于中国在气候议题的战略叙事中。因此，我们增加了目前对于主流媒体的研究。从方法而言，从领导人的演讲到媒体的报道，我们批判地考察了中国气候战略的四种叙事的不同来源。

通过对21个半结构化访谈进行三角测量，我们获得了一些数据。总的来说，我们将中国的气候政策的战略叙事分为三个阶段。在系统层面，发达国家和发展中国家不再如此明显地被区分，取而代之的是“人类命运共同体”；在国家层面，作为曾经的“生态帝国主义”的受害者，中国已成为新的“火炬手”。这项研究将有助于进一步了解中国的国内政治情况及其在全球治理中的地位。

【原文】During the past decade, we have witnessed a transformation in the role played by China in international climate negotiations, which has provoked increasing academic and policy interest. While most of the current research focuses on normative or empirical analyses of policies, this article provides a comprehensive study of China’s climate strategic narratives on both the systematic and national levels. Theoretically, this article situates itself in the 'narrative turn’ in international relations. We develop an analytical framework that combines theoretical insights stemming from the strategic narrative with our own identification of the unique features of China’s discourse context. We apply this to China’s climate strategic narratives by examining China’s climate 'discourse coalition’, which consists of the government, the epistemic community, and the official media. In doing so, we add to the current research that mainly focuses on the mass media. Methodologically, we critically examine four different sources of China’s climate strategic narratives, ranging from leaders’ speeches to media reports.

This data is triangulated with 21 semi-structured interviews. Overall, we identify three phases of China’s climate strategic narratives. On a system level, the strict division between developed and developing countries has been replaced by the narrative of 'a community of a shared future of mankind’; while on the national level, China as the victim of 'ecological imperialism’ has given way to the new 'torchbearer’ narrative. This research also contributes to a broader understanding on China’s domestic politics and its position in global governance.

【编译】钱靓

【审校】杨沛鑫

中国和金砖国家在重塑全球经济治理上的局限性

【题目】China, the BRICS, and the limitations of reshaping global economic governance

【作者】Bas Hooijmaaijers是华东师范大学国际关系与地区发展研究院助理教授和晨晖学者，同时也是比利时天主教鲁汶大学LINES研究所研究学者。

【摘要】2006年，金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）举行首次会晤，开启金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）合作序幕。我们目睹了包括新开发银行和金砖国家应急储备安排框架等金砖国家机构的建立。基于政治经济实力，中国对金砖国家的重视程度超过其他的伙伴。此外，中国政府还提出了一系列倡议，包括“一带一路”倡议和亚洲基础设施投资银行。其中，“一带一路”倡议使中国与包括印度在内的其他金砖国家成员产生了摩擦。本文探讨了中国和金砖国家如何以及为何重塑全球经济治理，金砖国家和金砖国家机构在多大程度上代表了新趋势。更重要的是，它分析了中国如何通过金砖国家组织重塑全球经济治理，以及中国独立提出的倡议如何削弱金砖国家影响全球经济治理的潜力。本文指出金砖国家间相互作用方式限制了其重塑全球经济治理的潜力。至关重要的是，中国、印度和其他金砖国家在现行国际体系下对各自国内政治经济和国家利益上均拥有不同立场和偏好。

【原文】Cooperation between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) has increased since the first BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) meeting in 2006. We have witnessed the establishment of various BRICS institutions, including the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement. Because of its politico-economic weight, China exerts great weight on the BRICS exceeding that of its partners. Additionally, Beijing has pursued its own initiatives including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with for instance the BRI having created frictions with other BRICS members including India. This article examines how and why China and the BRICS are reshaping global economic governance, and to what degree the BRICS and BRICS institutions represent anything new. More importantly, it analyzes China’s use of the BRICS to reshape global economic governance, and the potential for its independent initiatives to undermine the BRICS’ impact on global economic governance. It shows that the dynamics of the BRICS limit their potential of reshaping global economic governance. What is critical is the domestic political economy and interests of China, India and the other BRICS countries that all hold different positions and preferences in the international system.

【编译】王芷汀

【审校】姚寰宇

和谐周边：新时代中国周边战略

【题目】Harmonizing the periphery: China’s neighborhood strategy.

【作者】Stephen N. Smith（斯蒂芬·史密斯），卡尔顿大学政治学系的博士研究生，研究方向为国际关系和比较政治。攻读博士学位期间，斯蒂芬主要研究在中国崛起的背景下，中国国际关系理论的发展、中国的国际秩序观和中国的对外关系。

【摘要】本文主要探讨了中国的精英人士如何理解中国相对于其“周边”的适当角色，以及这种自我认知如何塑造了中国对周边国家的战略政策。作者提出了两个具体的论点：首先，自2012年后，中国开始认识到自己有责任积极管理并塑造周边地区。在中国的领导下，“一带一路倡议”助推制度建设和区域一体化，加上战略伙伴关系的构建、规范约束和治国方略的发展，中国的周边外交战略从单纯的接触转变为主动塑造地区秩序。其次，处理好与邻国之间新出现的权力不对称是现前中国周边外交政策的一项重要任务。中国主导的新兴地区秩序依赖于等级性的、交易性的和反映地位差异的规范，中国新时代的周边战略建立在一个非对称的交易之上：尊重中国的核心利益以换取其对周边的仁慈。

【原文】This paper investigates how Chinese elites understand the proper role of their nation vis-à-vis its 'periphery’ and how this self-understanding shapes Chinese strategic policy toward neighboring states. It makes two specific arguments. First, after 2012 China began to understand itself as responsible for actively managing and shaping its periphery. Beijing has overseen an evolution in China’s neighborhood strategy that has changed from mere engagement to proactive efforts to shape regional order. Efforts to achieve this goal have come primarily through: institution-building and regional integration via the 'Belt and Road Initiative’, strategic partnerships, normative binding, and developmental statecraft. Second, managing newly emerged power asymmetries between China and its neighbors is now a crucial task of Beijing’s peripheral policy. The emerging China-led regional order relies on norms that are hierarchical, transactional, and reflect status distinctions. China’s neighborhood strategy rests on an asymmetric bargain: respect China’s core interests in exchange for benevolence.

【编译】李月云

【审校】黄慧彬

冷战后中国如何看待朝鲜的改革意愿及其对中国对朝政策的影响

【题目】How China views North Korea’s readiness to reform and its influence on China’s North Korea policy in the post-Cold War era

【作者】Kong, Tat Yan，英国伦敦大学亚非学院，政治学和国际关系学系。

【摘要】中国对朝鲜挑衅的克制政策（避免严重的经济制裁）通常被解释为对朝鲜政权稳定的地缘政治关切。克制的战略和外交成本表明，中国的做法背后存在非地缘政治影响。观念上的解释认为，这是由于对共同的社会主义身份的坚持，以及传统的以中国为中心的世界观的影响。中国是如何看待朝鲜的政治经济的、这种看法是如何随着时间的推移而发生变化、从而影响双边关系的，相关分析要要少得多。为了更全面地了解中国的动机，本文引入了另外两个变量，即中国对自身改革道路状况的看法（这提供了对朝鲜政策的国内背景），以及朝鲜优先进行经济改革意愿的强弱。然后，将用这些变量来解释两个对比阶段，这两个阶段代表了冷战后双边关系中最差的时期（1992-1999年）和最好的时期（2009-2012年）。这些变量也有助于我们了解2018年以来双边关系好转的潜力和局限性。

【原文】 China’s policy of restraint (avoidance of crippling economic sanctions) towards North Korean provocation is typically explained in terms of geopolitical concern with North Korean regime stability. The strategic and diplomatic costs of restraint would suggest the presence of non-geopolitical influences behind China’s approach. Ideational explanations emphasise the persistence of shared socialist identity as well as the traditional Sino-centric worldview as shaping influences. There is much less detailed analysis of how China views North Korea’s political economic evolution and how this view has changed over time to produce fluctuations in the bilateral relationship. In order to capture China’s motivations more fully, I introduce two additional variables, namely China’s view of the state of its own reform path (which provides the domestic context shaping policy towards North Korea), and the extent of North Korea’s readiness to prioritise economic reform. I will then use these variables to explain two contrasting phases which represented the worst (1992–1999) and best (2009–2012) of times in the bilateral relationship in the post-Cold War era. These variables also help us to understand the potentials and limitations of the upturn in bilateral relations which has occurred since 2018.

【编译】程朵依

【审校】姚寰宇

讨价还价互动的再思考：以等级制视角看朝核危机

【题目】Bargaining interactions reconsidered: the Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis viewed through the lens of hierarchy

【作者】Richard J. Cook，南开大学周恩来政府管理学院国际关系专业博士候选人，研究兴趣包括中美关系、国际关系中的等级制度和国际安全；

Maximilian Ohle在南开大学周恩来政府管理学院获得国际事务和公共政策硕士学位，并被图宾根大学政治学系录取为国际关系学博士生。他的研究兴趣包括中俄关系、国际关系中的等级制度和东亚国际安全；韩召颖，南开大学周恩来政府管理学院国际关系系教授。他的研究兴趣包括中美关系、中国外交政策和国际关系理论。

【摘要】行为体放弃部分主权以换取更强大行为体的保护，由此产生主导者和从属者的等级关系，前者提供政治秩序，后者寻求政治秩序所能提供的利益。这是双方理性评估各自处境，并最终放弃“行为体一律平等”的国际关系范式的结果。等级制理论的应用为理解当前朝鲜半岛核危机“是什么”以及“为什么如此展开”提供了一种基本选择。既有文献呈现出两个彼此平行的政治秩序：美韩与中朝。从历史上看，这两种秩序走的是完全不同的道路，美韩保持着紧密、不断升值且活跃的社会契约，中朝则周期性地处于宽松、贬值而不活跃的阶段。此外，随着1978年后中国的包容性行为、美国的单极时刻以其进攻性的信号和行动出现，一种新的范式已经出现，迫使朝鲜重新考虑其主导者提供的安全保证的可信度与可靠性。在经历翻天覆地的变化后，朝鲜加强了与其“最终安保者”的发展，导致了今天面临的当代危机。

【原文】Actors partially relinquish sovereignty in return for physical protection by a more powerful actor, generating a hierarchical relationship of a dominant, which supplies a political order, and subordinate(s), seeking the benefits that the political order can offer. This is the outcome of rationally assessing the respective situation, ultimately forgoing the presupposed paradigm that all actors are acknowledged as equal units in IR. The product of applying this hierarchical rubric to the Korean Peninsula offers a fundamental alternative for understanding how and why the current Korean Peninsula Nuclear Crisis unfolded in the manner that it did, while building upon relevant literature constituting the crux of hierarchy in international relations. What is presented are two political orders running parallel to one another: (1) the USA and the ROK and (2) China and the DPRK. Historically, both orders took fundamentally different tracks, as the USA and the ROK maintained a tight, valued and active social contract, while China and the DPRK periodically drifted into loose, devalued and inactive phases. Additionally, a paradigm has emerged following China’s inclusive behavior post-1978, the USA’s unipolar moment, and Washington’s aggressive signaling and actions, forcing the DPRK to reconsider its dominant’s reliability as a credible security guarantor. Having witnessed these seismic shifts, the DPRK has intensified its development of 'the ultimate security guarantor’, leading to the contemporary crisis we are facing today.

【编译】石雨宸

【审校】黄慧彬

安倍时代的日本外交与安全政策：从新保守主义与新自主到务实现实主义

【题目】Japan’s Foreign and Security Policy under Abe: from neoconservatism and neoautonomy to pragmatic realism

【作者】Ramirez Carlos，日本近畿大学国际关系研究院。

【摘要】使用塞缪尔斯的[（2007）《保卫日本：当前的讨论》[日本研究杂志，33（1），125-152]日本战略政策视角的政治观点，本文认为在安倍晋三首相领导下的日本外交和安全政策经历了三个不同的阶段：在2006-2007年他第一任首相任期中是新保守主义阶段；2012年，他时隔五年重返首相府是第二个阶段，可称为新自主阶段；最后是2015-2016年的务实现实主义阶段。此外，本文还分析了推动阶段间变化的因素。通过采用折中的理论方法，本文认为国际关系领域的每一种传统理论对日本安全和外交政策的转变都提供了不同但互补的因果效应。每一个国际关系理论都强调或弱化以下四个因素：行为体、结构、物质力量和理念。本文将运用全部三种国际关系传统理论中与这些因素相关的内容，来分析导致安倍外交政策转变的因素。最后，本文结论与部分学者相一致，认为日本外交政策与过去有重大转变，其开启了外交和安全政策重新军事化的新道路。

【原文】Using Samuels’ [(2007). Securing Japan: The current discourse. The Journal of Japanese Studies, 33(1), 125–152] political categories of Japanese perspectives on strategic policy, this article argues that the nation’s foreign and security policy under the leadership of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has undergone three distinct phases: a first phase of neoconservatism during his first tenure as Prime Minister from 2006 to 2007; a second period when he returned to the office of Prime Minister five years later in 2012 that can be described as neoautonomous; and a third phase of pragmatic realism from 2015 to 2016. In addition, this article analyses the factors driving change from one phase to another. By adopting an eclectic approach to theory, it claims that each traditional theory in the field of International Relations (IR) offers different but complementary causal effects to shifts in security and foreign policies. Each IR theory emphasizes or downplays these four factors: actors, structures, material forces and ideas. This article will employ all three IR traditional theories as they relate to these factors to discern the change factors of Abe’s foreign policy. Finally, it concludes by siding with those scholars who assert that Japan’s foreign policy has made a consequential break from its past and has embarked on a new path towards a remilitarization of its foreign and security policy.

【编译】戎秦婴

【审校】杨沛鑫

好好学习，天天“在看”

【新刊速递】《太平洋评论》The Pacific Review, Vol. 34, No.1, 2021.

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