【新刊速递】 第32期 | International Studies Quarterly, No.1, 2020

期刊简介

《国际研究季刊》（International Studies Quarterly）是国际研究协会的旗舰期刊，由牛津大学出版社每年发行四期，旨在发表与国际研究中重要理论性、实证性、规范性主题相关的领先学术成果。根据Journal Citation Reports的数据，2018年该期刊的影响因子为2.172。

本期编委

【编译】金琳 张晋岚 张曼娜 贺凡熙 蔡宇

【校对】金琳 张晋岚 张曼娜 贺凡熙 蔡宇

【排版】王国伟

本期目录

1. 国际机构何时有效？国内否决者对遵从世贸组织裁决的影响

When are International Institutions Effective? The Impact of Domestic Veto Players on Compliance with WTO Rulings

2. “魔镜！魔镜！”：国际组织的自我合法化

“Mirror, Mirror On the Wall:” Self-Legitimation by International Organizations

3. 非法军事行为：偶然与必然——媒体对军队性暴力的报道与“坏苹果”悖论

Illicit Military Behavior as Exceptional and Inevitable: Media Coverage of Military Sexual Violence and the “Bad Apples” Paradox

4. 解决顽固的领土争端问题：拉丁美洲的领土边界和平

Settling Resistant Territorial Disputes: The Territorial Boundary Peace in Latin America

5. 国际投资争端的“寒蝉效应”：对国家主权的有限挑战

The Chilling Effect of International Investment Disputes: Limited Challenges to State Sovereignty

01

国际机构何时有效？国内否决者对遵从世贸组织裁决的影响

【题目】When are International Institutions Effective? The Impact of Domestic Veto Players on Compliance with WTO Rulings

【作者】Lauren Peritz，加州大学戴维斯分校政治学助理教授

【摘要】

国际机构什么时候会促进国家间的经济合作?世界贸易组织是多边贸易体制的核心，也是解决国际争端的基准。然而，目前尚不清楚世贸组织在恢复贸易合作方面是否有效。本文以WTO争端为例，考察了被告国的国内政治对其遵从不利法律裁决的影响。作者构建了一个关于遵从行为的新数据集。利用合成案例控制的方法，通过产品层面的时间序列贸易数据，估计了不利裁决对争议国之间贸易流动的影响。作者推断，如果争端后贸易流量相对于未裁决的估计水平增加，被告会遵从裁决。结果显示，以否决派衡量的国内政治分歧阻碍了遵从裁决。

When do international institutions promote economic cooperation among countries? The World Trade Organization (WTO) is central to the multilateral trade regime and a benchmark for international dispute resolution. Yet it remains unclear whether it has been effective in restoring trade cooperation. This article uses WTO disputes to examine the impact of domestic politics in the defendant country on compliance with adverse legal rulings. I build a novel data set on compliance. Using the method of synthetic case control, I estimate the effect of adverse rulings on trade flows between disputant countries using product-level time-series trade data. I infer the defendant complied if trade flows increased after the dispute, relative to estimated levels that would have occurred in the absence of the ruling. The results show domestic political divisions—measured by veto players—hinder compliance.

【编译】金琳

【校对】张晋岚

【审核】金磊

02

“魔镜！魔镜！”：国际组织的自我合法化

【题目】“Mirror, Mirror On the Wall:” Self-Legitimation by International Organizations

【作者】Sarah von Billerbeck，英国雷丁大学政治与国际关系系讲师，雷丁大学联合国与全球秩序项目联合主任

【摘要】

有关国际组织合法性（legitimacy）与合法化（legitimation）的研究大多集中在外部观众（external audiences）的认知上。依据这一逻辑，这些研究忽视了国际组织的自我合法化，即在一个国际组织内部开展合法化进程，这一行动被国际组织视为发展和加强组织认同的方式。此外，大多数关于国际组织合法性的研究忽略了这样一个事实，即国际组织的认同很少情况下是统一的，相反，其呈现出多元性与冲突性的特征。作者旨在通过详细地研究三个国际组织（联合国、北大西洋公约组织、世界银行）的自我合法化进程来解决既有研究的疏漏。这些组织既是任务行动者又是规范践行者，既是依赖会员国的机构又是具有独立专业知识与能力的自治机构。这些身份有时导致了相互矛盾的目标与实践，迫使国际组织违反被认为符合其身份的原则和行动，从而使合法化进程复杂化。基于广泛的田野调查和借鉴跨学科知识，本文提出一个新的国际组织自我合法化理论：作者认为自我合法化的需要取决于组织的认同凝聚力和认同等级。作者确定了自我合法化的两个时间维度，三种类型的自我合法化实践模式，以及三种自我合法化更广泛的影响，最终阐明自我合法化是国际组织的一种必要且重要的活动。

Most analyses of legitimacy and legitimation in international organizations (IOs) focus on the perceptions of external audiences. In so doing, they fail to consider self-legitimation, where an IO undertakes legitimation internally, as a way of developing and reinforcing its identity. Moreover, most studies of IO legitimacy neglect the fact that IO identities are rarely uniform and instead are multiple and conflicting. I address these omissions by examining self-legitimation in three IOs—the United Nations (UN), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the World Bank. These organizations are both operational and normative actors, and both institutions dependent on member states and autonomous bodies with independent expertise and capacities. These identities sometimes dictate contradictory goals and practices, forcing the organizations to violate the principles and activities considered appropriate to one of their identities, thus complicating legitimation. Based on extensive fieldwork and drawing on a range of disciplines, this article proposes a novel theory of IO self-legitimation: I argue that the need for self-legitimation depends on the degree of identity cohesion and identity hierarchy of the organization. I identify two temporal dimensions of self-legitimation, three categories of self-legitimation practices, and three broader repercussions of self-legitimation, ultimately showing that self-legitimation is a necessary and constitutive activity for IOs.

【编译】张晋岚

【校对】张曼娜

【审核】金磊

03

非法军事行为：偶然与必然——媒体对军队性暴力的报道与“坏苹果”悖论

【题目】Illicit Military Behavior as Exceptional and Inevitable: Media Coverage of Military Sexual Violence and the “Bad Apples” Paradox

【作者】Megan Mackenzie，悉尼大学社会与政治科学学院教授；Eda Gunaydin, 悉尼大学社会与政治科学学院研究生；Umeya Chaudhuri，悉尼大学法律与政治学系研究助理与纽卡斯尔大学商业与法律部门研究助理

【摘要】

我们该如何看待公众在对军队性暴力的认知度很高的情况下仍始终对军队表示支持和信任的现象? 本文通过对澳大利亚军队性暴力有关新闻报道的内容与话语分析，探讨了军队性暴力现象是如何向公众传播的。本文分析的时间范围为近30年（1989至2016年），在此期间爆发了数起“性丑闻”，其中包括国际性丑闻。作者分析了若干个用于描述这一问题的话语构建（frame），并得出结论。军事性丑闻与其他非法军事行为一样，往往会被公开构建为（1）军事机构中的例外（坏苹果）或（2）一个机构无法避免的典型特征。本文试图证明这些看似迥异的话语构建并不矛盾，而是统一为一种单一的叙事。这些不同的话语构建统一而成的叙述便是：军队性暴力现象是无法预防也无从解决的，因此对这一机构来说没有任何问题。

How can we understand consistent public support and trust of the military even in climates of high rates of public awareness about military sexual violence? This article examines how the phenomenon of military sexual violence is mediated to the public through a media content and discourse analysis of newspaper reportage about military sexual violence in Australia. The analysis covers an almost thirty-year period (1989–2016) during which several “sex scandals,” some of international import, broke out. We analyze several frames used to depict the issue and conclude that military sex scandals, like other illicit military behaviors, tend to be publicly framed either as (1) a rarity that is atypical of the institution (“bad apples”) or (2) inevitable and so typical of the institution as to be unremarkable. The article then seeks to demonstrate that these seemingly disparate frames are not contradictory, but rather unify into a singular narrative. The narrative cohering these disparate frames is that military sexual violence is a phenomenon that cannot be prevented or addressed and is therefore unproblematic for the institution.

【编译】张曼娜

【校对】贺凡熙

【审核】金磊

04

解决顽固的领土争端问题：拉丁美洲的领土边界和平

【题目】Settling Resistant Territorial Disputes: The Territorial Boundary Peace in Latin America

【作者】Luis L. Schenoni, 美国圣母大学政治科学（国际关系）博士生；Gary Goertz, 美国圣母大学政治科学与和平研究教授；Andrew P. Owsiak，美国佐治亚大学国际关系系副教授；Paul F. Diehl，美国德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校政治科学教授

【摘要】

为何有些领土争端问题得不到解决？通过怎样的机制才能解决这些顽固的领土争端问题？本文给出的答案是三个独立的必要条件和三者共同作为充分条件。首先，争端必须得到关注（Attention），如(重新)把争议放在和(重新)优先放在二元议程上；其次，政府需要改变其偏好（Altered preference），扩大谈判范围，以便打破僵局，寻求解决方案；最后，存在领土争端的国家需要第三方的协助（Third-party Assistance）来促进、定位、激励和支持顽固领土争端问题的解决。本文以二战后的拉丁美洲为案例，对上述“3A模型”进行检验。“3A模型”存在一般和特殊两个层级。作者首先将一般模型的特殊形式理论化，认为二战后拉丁美洲对顽固领土争端问题的关注、改变的偏好的和第三方协助分别通过军事化、民主化、调节的机制运作起来；其次，作者区分出顽固的领土争端问题，提出了一个全新的、兼容多种方法的研究设计以评估本文假设。这一设计更多地依赖于案例内部的反事实分析。大量的反事实分析和统计分析为本文提出的模型提供了一致且有力的支持。作者认为，对于二战后的拉丁美洲，顽固的领土争端问题只有在关注、偏好改变和第三方援助共同出现时才能被解决，缺乏其中任何一个因素都不能解决争端。

Why do some territorial disputes defy settlement? Through what mechanism might these resistant territorial disputes be settled? We propose that the answer involves three individually necessary and jointly sufficient conditions. First, the dispute must receive attention—i.e., be (re)placed and (re)prioritized on the dyad’s agenda. Second, governments need altered preferences that expand the bargaining range so they can break deadlock and pursue settlement. Finally, disputing states need third-party assistance to facilitate, locate, incentivize, and support a settlement of their protracted dispute. We test this “AAA Model” in post–World War II Latin America. To do this, we first theorize the particular form of the general model; in post–1945 Latin America, attention, altered preferences, and third-party assistance operate through the mechanisms of militarization, democratization, and mediation respectively. We then identify resistant territorial disputes and advance a novel, multimethod research design to evaluate our hypotheses—one that relies more heavily on within-case counterfactual analysis. An extensive series of these counterfactual analyses, along with a statistical analysis, produce consistent, significant support for our model. When resistant territorial disputes in post–1945 Latin America have attention, altered preferences, and third-party assistance simultaneously, they always settle; when they lack any one factor, however, settlement never occurs.

【编译】贺凡熙

【校对】蔡宇

【审核】金磊

05

国际投资争端的“寒蝉效应”：对国家主权的有限挑战

【题目】The Chilling Effect of International Investment Disputes: Limited Challenges to State Sovereignty

【作者】David B. Roberts（伦敦国王学院）

Carolina Moehlecke，美国得克萨斯州大学奥斯丁分校的博士候选人

【摘要】

尽管既有研究表明国际投资争端对政府制定监管政策的自主性具有“寒蝉效应”，然而这一理论本身和不同国家“寒蝉效应”的异质性仍然缺乏实证案例的支持。本文对1973-2016年间的92个国家进行数据整理，选择九个出台禁烟政策的国家，成功验证了“寒蝉效应”的存在，但其影响范围有限。作者发现在这9个国家中，有2项涉及投资法纠纷的国家禁烟政策落实进度较慢，而剩余的7项不涉及国际投资的国家禁烟政策落实进度则不受影响。通过来源于投资争端被告和第三方国家的定性案例，本文确认了寒蝉效应的政策特殊性，并指出发达国家和发展中国家都具有寒蝉效应，但程度有所不同。本文的贡献在于，使用迄今最重要的国际投资争端案例之一，对国家监管权的“寒蝉效应”进行首次实证证实并指出这一效应对国家主权的影响范围是有限的。因此作者意在说明：尽管跨国公司能够限制国家主权，跨国公司对国家主权的影响也是具体的和明确的。

Despite suggestions that international investment disputes impose a chilling effect on governments’ autonomy to set regulatory policies, we lack empirical confirmation of the phenomenon and what explains its heterogeneity across countries. Using a novel dataset of nine anti-smoking regulations in ninety-two countries from 1973 to 2016, I confirm the presence of the chilling effect, but also its boundaries. I show that countries have been significantly slower in implementing two anti-smoking policies formally challenged under investment law, while the adoption of seven undisputed regulations in this issue area continued unimpeded. Qualitative evidence from respondent and third-party governments confirm the policy-specificity of the chilling effect and show that both developed and developing countries were affected by the chill, albeit differently. By providing the first empirical confirmation of a regulatory chill and by defining its limited scope in one of the most high-profiled international investment disputes to date, my findings indicate that, even though multinational corporations can constrain state sovereignty, their effects are not necessarily expansive or indefinite.

【编译】蔡宇

【校对】金琳

【审核】金磊

好好学习，天天“在看”