2021年3月5日-Fed-Powell怎么看当前市场

如何看待当前美元指数日线-周线级别的趋势拐头迹象?

如何看待usd10y的利率转向?

通胀来临会有什么迹象?未来的价格将会如何演进?

以下内容是Fed-Powell 2021年3月5日再

Powell said Thursday that the movement in bond markets caught his attention, but said it would take signs of disorderly conditions or a persistent tightening in financial conditions for the Fed to react.(“It’s always the case that if conditions do change materially, the committee is prepared to use the tools that it has to foster achievement of its goals,” )

Powell said the central bank is maintaining an aggressive level of accommodation to the economy with the goal of pulling as many workers back into jobs. With the headline unemployment rate at 6.3%, Powell said a decrease to even 4% would not be enough to convince the Fed to pull back its support.

“It will take more than that to get to maximum employment,” Powell said.

Transcript: FedChairman Jerome Powell at the WSJ Jobs Summit

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the labor market, the economy, inflation and the central bank’smonetary policy stance in a virtual appearance at The Wall Street Journal JobsSummit on Thursday. He was interviewed by Nick Timiraos, chief economiccorrespondent at The Wall Street Journal. Here is a transcript, lightly editedfor clarity.

NICK TIMIRAOS: Good afternoon. I’d like towelcome our audiences on Twitter and the WSJ home page and, of course, thankyou to Chair Powell for spending time with us today. We’re really excited tohave you join us.

JEROME POWELL: It’s great to be here, Nick.

MR. TIMIRAOS: So, to start, since Decemberthe outlook has brightened thanks to more vaccinations and the prospect of alot more government spending. How have these developments changed your outlookfor the economy and the labor market?

MR. POWELL: Nick, thanks. It’s great to behere today. And if you’ll permit me, I actually want to start by noting thattoday is the birthday of Alice Rivlin, who was one of the real pioneers forwomen in economics and public policy. Alice would have been 90 years old day,she was vice chair of the Fed, founding head of the Congressional BudgetOffice, and held many other roles. A great person and a great leader. And Iwanted to honor her today here on her birthday. How do I know this, you maywonder? And the reason is because she was a friend and she shared a birthdaywith my mother, who would have been 95 today. Another person of – you know, twowomen, actually, of integrity, intellect, and character. So if you’ll permitme, I will start that way. And now I will respond to your question.

So let me – let me start the answer bysaying that Congress has given us two goals – maximum employment and pricestability. And we have tools to achieve those. We’re strongly committed toachieving them. Before the – before the pandemic hit, we were very close tothose goals. Unemployment was at a 50-year low, jobs were plentiful, wages weremoving up, and inflation was also running close to but a bit below our 2percent objective. That was a year ago now. Let’s look at where we are today.

The economy began to recover last May fromthe very sharp downturn at the beginning of the pandemic and made good progressthrough the beginning of the fall, let’s say. And then progress slowed sharplyoverall with the winter Covid spike, which reduced job creation for the lastthree months, through January, to about 29,000 a month, which is a drop in thebucket for an economy our size. So today we’re still a long way from our goalsof maximum employment and inflation averaging 2 percent over time.

More recently, as you point out, we’ve gotrising vaccination. We’ve got cases at lower levels. We’ve got strong supportfrom fiscal and monetary policy. And while there are still risks, there’s goodreason to expect job creation to pick up in coming months. And we need that,because we’re still 10 million jobs short of where we were – 10 million fewerpeople are working than were working when the pandemic hit. So it’s a lot ofground we have to cover. And those people are mostly in areas that are directlyaffected by the pandemic. That’s service industries, public-facing jobs.

I’ll also mention inflation, since that’sthe other side of our mandate. We seek inflation that averages 2 percent overtime. And we want that to happen because we want – because we want it toaverage 2 percent over time, we want inflation expectations to be anchored at 2percent. And that’s really the goal.

So right now inflation is running below 2percent, and it’s done so since the pandemic arrived. We do expect that as theeconomy reopens and hopefully picks up, we’ll see inflation move up throughbase effects, which means just that the very low readings of March and Aprilwill fall out of the 12-month window, and also through a surge, if you will, inspending that may come as the economy fully reopens. And that could create someupward pressure on prices. The real question is how large those effects will beand whether they will be sustained or more transitory.

And I’ll just say that for several decadesthe U.S. and the world, really, economy have been in a low-inflation world, andlow inflation is what people expect both here and around the world. For thoseexpectations to change, businesses and people would need to believe that largerincreases in prices would be repeated year after year, and we think it’sunlikely that these deeply ingrained low inflation expectations would suddenlychange.

It is more likely that effects like theones I described would be one-time effects as the one-time effects of thefiscal boost fade. We have the tools to assure that longer-run inflationexpectations are well-anchored at 2 percent, not materially above or below, andwe’ll use those tools to achieve that end.

So that’s my thinking on the economy.

MR. TIMIRAOS: So I’ll get to inflation in asecond. But on employment, you know, when people are vaccinated, when they’reable to go travel and feel comfortable seeing their family again, there couldbe a big pickup in activity. Does that mean employment could get back to whereit was before the pandemic sooner than you previously thought?

MR. POWELL: Well, the answer is I wouldhope so.

So let me tell you how we define maximumemployment. People focus on the unemployment rate, but it’s really much broaderthan that because if you haven’t looked for a job in the last four weeks thenyou’re not counted as unemployed. You’re counted as out of the labor force.

So if you look at those who have left thelabor force since the pandemic and also those who are unemployed, then you geta very large number of people who are around the edges of the labor market andshould be thought of as generally people who want to go back to work. It willtake some time to get back to maximum employment. It took us many years to getthere before. And that’ll really just depend on how strongly the economy picksup once we do get past the pandemic and once economic activity picks up andhiring picks up.

Again, there’s a lot of ground to cover toget – to get back to what I would call maximum employment. We want to see wagesmoving up. We’d want to see that the gains in employment are broad-based andthat different demographic groups were experiencing it. So we have a highstandard for identifying what maximum employment is, and we’ll – we think it’lltake some time to get there. But that is exactly the state we’re trying toachieve, and we’re trying to achieve it, you know, as quickly as we – as wepossibly can.

MR. TIMIRAOS: So just because we hit 4percent unemployment, for example, if labor-force participation was still lowrelative to where it was last February, does that mean we’re not at maximumemployment?

MR. POWELL: Yes. I mean, we’ll look overallat a range of indicators, and certainly the unemployment rate and thelabor-force participation rate are two key ones. It’s actually even broaderthan that. But certainly, labor force – we’ve had the sharpest drop inlabor-force participation in many decades coming out of the pandemic, and thatjust means that there are quite a few people who are technically out of thelabor force but were working in February.

So some of them will have retired, but thevast bulk of them actually want to go back to work – but they’re not currentlylooking because perhaps the business where they worked is still temporarilyclosed or permanently closed. So the answer is yes. Four percent would be anice unemployment rate to get to, but it’ll take more than that to get tomaximum employment.

MR. TIMIRAOS: And do you think we could getthere this year?

MR. POWELL: No. I think that’s highlyunlikely. I think we have significant ground to cover. When you think about it,if you add back in – a broader measure of unemployment is about 10 millionpeople. I’m hopeful that we can begin to make good progress again, that hiringwill pick up.

So as I mentioned, hiring was strong duringmuch of last year after the – after the critical phase of the pandemic in Marchand April, but it really slowed down over the winter with the spike in Covidcases and it hasn’t – we don’t – we don’t think it’s really picked up much yet.We’re looking for that to happen as cases come down, as vaccinations increase;hasn’t happened yet. So I think it’s not at all likely that we’d reach maximumemployment this year. I think it’s going to take some time to get there.

MR. TIMIRAOS: Let’s talk about inflationfor a second. Between the $900 billion the Congress approved around Christmasand then this $1.9 trillion package Congress is looking at right now that’ssome serious spending, and the market has been pushing up longer-term interestrates maybe because it seems to anticipate an unwelcome increase in inflation.Is the market wrong?

MR. POWELL: Well, is the market wrong?That’s a pretty broad question, I would say. Maybe to be a little morespecific, let me talk about the sort of – market pricing I think is what you’rereally asking about.

So in terms of the bond market, so you’reright, bond market rates moved up. And as far as that is concerned, a number offactors are factored into it. But from our perspective, we monitor a broadrange of financial conditions and we think that we’re a long way from ourgoals. We think it’s important that financial conditions support theachievement of those goals, and I would be concerned by disorderly conditionsin markets or a persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatensthe achievement of our goals. I would be concerned if those things were tohappen.

In terms of – the other question tends tobe markets reflect an estimate of when we would raise interest rates, and solet me – let me talk about that. That’s the other question. So the question is,what would it take for us to want to raise interest rates? Right now our policyrate is at – effectively at zero.

So we have a new framework, and we’restrongly committed to implementing that framework, and we have guidance out toimplement that framework. As I mentioned, with rising vaccination and otherthings happening – fiscal policy support – there’s good reason to think thatthe outlook is becoming more positive at the margin and in coming months wecould see spending and job creation picking up.

So let me talk about the guidance. By theway, the guidance is always – it’s outcome-based. It’s not date-based. So wenever – we never think – we never say, hey, we’re going to do this in 18 monthsor 24 months. It’s always when these conditions are fulfilled.

So for asset purchases, as you’re aware, wesay that they will continue at least at the current level until we achievesubstantial further progress toward our goals. That’s actual progress, notforecast progress. And as I mentioned, there’s good reason to think we’ll beginto make more progress soon. But even if that happens, as now seems likely, itwill take some time to achieve substantial further progress.

For interest rates, to raise interest ratesabove zero, very simply, we said we’d want to see labor market conditionsconsistent with our assessment of maximum employment, and that means all of thethings that we – that we talked about. We’d want to see inflation sustainablyat 2 percent and we want to be on track to have inflation run moderately above2 percent. So these are highly desirable outcomes that we – that wouldrepresent an economy that’s very far along the road to recovery, and there’sjust a lot of ground to cover before we get to that.

The last thing I’ll say is this, and I wantto be clear about this. If we do see – as I mentioned, if we do see what webelieve is likely a transitory increase in inflation where longer-terminflation expectations are broadly stable at levels consistent with ourframework and goals, I expect that we will be patient.

MR. TIMIRAOS: So there’s a lot there. Thankyou for that. I guess, you know, the question is, has the recent run-up in bondyields been consistent with your economic outlook and with the new frameworkthat you’ve adopted that takes a more relaxed approach to inflation?

MR. POWELL: You know, I don’t want to bethe judge of a particular level of one interest rate among many, one assetprice if you will among any. Our new – for your – the people at your conferencebenefit, our new framework says that we will seek inflation that runsmoderately above 2 percent for some time after we’ve had a shortfall ofinflation. And it also says – it commits us to not raise interest rates justbecause the labor market gets strong. And those things, I think, will – youknow, will be good for the labor market over time.

So, again, I would just say as it relatesto the bond market, I’d be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or bya persistent tightening in financial conditions broadly that threatens theachievement of our goals.

MR. TIMIRAOS: And I understand why youwouldn’t want to comment on a specific level of rates, even if the level ofrates isn’t a problem. Was the speed with which real rates adjusted over thelast week problematic, in your view?

MR. POWELL: You know, it was something thatwas notable and caught my attention. But again, it’s a broad range of financialconditions that we’re looking at, and that’s really the key. It’s many things.

And we want to see, and would be concernedif we didn’t see, disorderly conditions – orderly conditions in markets, and wedon’t want to see a persistent tightening in broader financial conditions.That’s really the test. It’s not appropriate to isolate one particular interestrate or price. It’s more of a broader assessment that we make.

MR. TIMIRAOS: I guess what I’m wondering isthe market now believes the Fed will raise rates earlier and faster than itthought a week ago. Are you saying that’s consistent with your outcome-basedpolicy guidance and with your new framework?

MR. POWELL: That’s going to entirely on thepath of the economy. So I laid out the conditions upon which we would considerraising interest rates. And that’s labor market conditions that are consistentwith maximum employment – which is – you know, that’s a big thing to get to.And it will take some time to get there, right? Inflation sustainably at 2percent, and inflation on track to run moderately above 2 percent for sometime.

So those are the conditions. When theyarrive, we will consider raising interest rates. We will not – we’re notintending to raise interest rates until we see those conditions fulfilled. Soit’s really going to – the timing will depend entirely on the fulfillment ofthose conditions. And as I said, again, you know, if – I’ve told you that weare – we think we’re likely to see inflation move up during the course of thisyear, to really two things. First, the base effects I mentioned, but also justkind of reopening effects where businesses will be potentially hit by a lot ofdemand as the economy recovers, which is a good thing. But you could seebottlenecks. You could see prices moving up.

We’re inclined to see those as transient.And it’s the difference between a one-time surge in prices and ongoinginflation. Ongoing inflation, where prices go up year, after year, after yeartends to happen when people’s psychology becomes that they believe that that’swhat will happen, and then have no faith that the central bank, frankly, willprevent that from happening.

So, as I’ve said our – you know, the keything is to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored at 2 percent. Ifthat happens then a transient increase in inflation will not affect inflationover a longer period. And we intend to use our tools to keep inflationexpectations anchored at 2 percent, which gives us the ability to do all thethings we do when the economy is weak.

MR. TIMIRAOS: It could take months, though,for the data to contradict or validate this narrative about transientinflation. And obviously investors are twitchy right now. Do you think yourguidance is too vague right now to be properly understood by investors?

MR. POWELL: I’m trying to make it as clearas possible. And I went though, you know, the guidance – I think the guidancefor tapering asset purchases has an element of judgment in it. But I’ve alsosaid that we will, well in advance of any decision to consider tapering assetpurchases, we’ll communicate about our sense of progress toward substantialfurther – toward the goal – substantial further progress toward our goals. Sowe’re not looking to surprise people with that.

And as far as – as far as the – you know,the rate liftoff guidance, it’s pretty specific. And as I said, it will takesome time to get there, if you think about it. You got to – you got to have avery strong labor market and inflation performing in line with our – it’s apicture of an economy that is all but fully recovered, you know, so – and, youknow, the sooner that happens the better. But I would say realistically, that’sgoing to take some time.

MR. TIMIRAOS: And as we sit here today doyou think the hope of a brighter outlook you’ve discussed here might lead tosubstantial further progress being met, being achieved this year?

MR. POWELL: Again, so I’m – I’ve been – sofar been able to not reduce it to an estimate of time. I mean, that will come,I think, when we – when we see – when we can see that. Right now – right now wehaven’t been making much progress. I mentioned 29,000 jobs per months for themonths of November, December, and January. So and spending was maybe a littlebetter than that, but in the job market you saw real – a real slowdown in jobcreation. That wouldn’t get you to maximum employment anytime soon. You know,that would – that’s just not enough.

So I do expect, and many forecastersexpect, that there’ll be a pickup in job creation. We’ll have to assess thatwhen it comes. I don’t want to be making – but, again, I think realisticallythough it’s March. And, you know, we’re going to start – presumably in the nextcouple of months we’ll start to see stronger employment. And we’re going towant to see substantial further progress in both maximum employment and stableprices.

That’s going to take some time. It justwill take some time because, you know, you’d had three months now where youdidn’t make much progress. So we’ve got to get going and start making it again,and for us to assess that and signal forward it’s going to take some time.

MR. TIMIRAOS: As you noted, the Fed isbuying $120 billion per month in Treasury and mortgage securities. You’ve beensaying for the year – for the past year that your asset purchases are designedto support market functioning.

Have you seen anything in the Treasurymarket that suggests a need to lengthen the maturity profile of your purchases?

MR. POWELL: We think our current policystance is appropriate. As I mentioned, the federal-funds rate is at theeffective lower bound, which is our technical name for zero or close to zero.We’ve provided really strong guidance about the conditions we need to seebefore we’d consider raising it.

We’re buying $120 billion in Treasurys andmortgage-backed securities across the curve, and we’ll continue at least atthat pace until we see substantial progress toward our goals. Financialconditions are highly accommodative and that’s appropriate, given the groundthat the economy has to cover. It’s always the case that if conditions dochange materially the committee is prepared to use the tools that it has tofoster achievement of its goals.

MR. TIMIRAOS: Well, and if there were somekind of rate move that you felt represented a threat to your outlook, whatwould you do to address it?

MR. POWELL: Well, that’s sort of ahypothetical situation. You know, we would use our tools – it’s hard to say inthe abstract, but we would use our tools as appropriate to foster theachievement of our goals.

MR. TIMIRAOS: There’s been some discussionin recent days that’s gotten a lot of attention, the idea of selling bills orletting bills run off of your portfolio to address a collateral squeeze inmoney markets. Is that something you think needs to be considered at this time?

MR. POWELL: Nick, you know, as I said, Iwouldn’t want to speculate. Really, I’ll just say if conditions do changematerially we’ll be prepared to use our tools in whatever way is appropriate atthat time to foster the achievement of our goals.

MR. TIMIRAOS: I know a lot of this talkabout inflation and interest rates can feel abstract, and so I wonder if youcould put into plain language what the practical effect is of the changes theFed has been making over the last year to your framework. What does it mean foreveryday workers?

MR. POWELL: Great question. So I guess Ihave to say, for a long time and when I was entering the job market years ago,when we had low employment we had high inflation. So when the job market gotgood and tight – employers were, you know, actively seeking people and therewere plenty of jobs – inflation would be moving up and, therefore, the centralbank – the Fed – would be raising interest rates to cool off the economy, and Iwould say 50 years ago that was appropriate because there was this tight connectionbetween unemployment and inflation.

More recently, though, I think the Fedestablished its credibility several decades ago on inflation and since thattime the connection between, you know, having a lot of people out of work andinflation under control has gotten very, very weak. So our new framework veryexplicitly takes that under – takes that in, that new learning, that newunderstanding, and says that we won’t raise the interest rates to cool down theeconomy just because unemployment gets lower, just because employment getshigh.

We’re going to wait to see signs of actualinflation or the appearance of other risks that could threaten the achievementof our goals. And we’ve seen that the economy can sustain very low levels ofunemployment without inflation.

So what does that mean for job seekers? Itshould mean that, you know, the job market will be stronger over time. We alsosaw the terrific social benefits of a very strong job market during 2018, ’19,and the early part of ’20. We saw workers at the low end of the wage scalegetting the biggest increases.

We saw labor-force participation moving up,so people who might have given up on finding a job found a job and people atthe margins of society, maybe coming out of prison, things like that, got jobs.And it was – there was really a lot to like about our very strong labor market.

So, you know, we’re really, reallycommitted to getting back to a very strong labor market and, you know, thestrong anchoring of inflation expectations, the inflation dynamics that wehave, give us the ability to do that. But it does require that we remaincommitted to keeping inflation expectations anchored at 2 percent, and we willdo that.

MR. TIMIRAOS: Of course, some prominenteconomists in the last couple weeks – as you know, Larry Summers, OlivierBlanchard – are saying that policy makers have maybe grown too quick toconclude from recent decades that low employment is no longer inflationary. Arethey right to worry about this right now?

MR. POWELL: Well, so many people,particularly people who are now entering the job market, will not have livedthrough high inflation. And high inflation is a very bad state of affairs. Andit hurts people the most on fixed incomes and lower incomes, who have lesswealth to draw upon. So that would – inflation was very high when I was incollege and coming into the job market. So it’s really not something we want.

But I would say, you know, at the – at theFed, we are well-aware of the history and how it happened, and not going toallow it to happen again. It was a situation where the Fed didn’t step in whenit should have, when inflation pressures were building. Not at all the currentsituation. Inflation is currently running below 2 percent. It’s running at 1 ½percent. But we’re very mindful of what happened in really the 1960s and 1970sand, you know, determined not to repeat that mistake.

But you have to differentiate thoughbetween one-time price effects – such as things that happen around thereopening of an economy, not something we have much experience with, and justthe sort of – now, when I say base effects, that’s a technical term. But youlook through that, it’s not really signaling anything about inflation. So, Imean, we’re very mindful. And I think it’s a constructive thing for people topoint out potential risks. It’s always constructive. I always want to hearthat.

But I do think it’s more likely that whathappens in the next year or so is going to amount to prices moving up but notstaying up, and certainly not staying up to the point where they would moveinflation expectations materially above 2 percent. That would take – the publicwould have to come to believe that that’s the new policy, that’s the newreality. And I really don’t think that, you know, a couple of quarters ofprices, or even more than that – but prices being above 2 percent would changethe psychology.

Particularly in a world where inflation hasbeen the problem for the last decade in all of the major advanced economycountries. They’ve been facing low inflation because of these globaldisinflationary pressures, which haven’t gone away, and they’re not going to goaway overnight.

MR. TIMIRAOS: So it’s been a year, really,since we began to face this pandemic, at least in the United States. Youannounced your first of two emergency rate cuts a year ago yesterday. And so aswe mark that anniversary, what are one or two of the most important lessons youthink we’ve learned from this economic crisis?

MR. POWELL: Yeah, we’ve been thinking aboutthat a lot. We’re sort of going into the anniversary of that extraordinaryperiod. So the first thing is – and we really implemented something that welearned from – in the last crisis, the global financial crisis. And that isthat we needed to move quickly and powerfully with our tools, and not hesitate.And we really did that this time. And so did Congress, by the way.

The Cares Act passed in late – within amonth really of the pandemic starting to get going we had very strong fiscalpolicy in the original Cares Act unanimously passed by Congress. And we cutrates twice. We started asset purchases to support market function at anunprecedented level. And we also announced the opening and opened facilities toreplace – to assure that the flow of credit to households, businesses, andmunicipalities in the country. All of those things were in place very quickly.

So thing one is when you have a realcrisis, attack quickly and use – don’t hold back. Thing two is don’t stop untilthe job is done. So there’s a real sense that in the last crisis really fiscalpolicy pulled back and became tight, and it led to a very long, slow recovery.So we’re committed to using our tools and, you know, staying on the playingfield with our tools until the job is really done. We’re committed to that. AndCongress, of course, has come with quite strong fiscal policy.

And so I think, you know, we’re in – youknow, if you look around, the place where we’re in now, there’s still a lot ofpain out there and more than a half a million people have lost their lives tothe pandemic.

But compared to the economic scenarios thatwe were contemplating a year ago, this is – you know, it’s good to be where weare, and particularly with the vaccines now. No one thought we’d have vaccineswithin a year – less than a year, and now vaccination is moving at a good pace.We really are looking – if we can just decisively end the pandemic, we couldget back to normal and avoid a lot of the longer-term damage that we wereconcerned about happening. But we haven’t done it yet.

We haven’t succeeded in this yet, but weare – we’re right there. I think there’s – if we can – the next couple ofmonths will be very important on the – on the pandemic. If we can keep makingprogress, that’s what will help the economy more than anything.

MR. TIMIRAOS: And of course, last year youtalked a lot about the need for fiscal policy – that is, government spending –to engage. It came through at the end of the year with $900 billion. Now itlooks like we may get something, you know, a few shakes less than $2 trillion.Is this going to be too much – too much too fast?

MR. POWELL: You know, we – it’s not ourjob. We are – our job, as assigned by Congress, is to use our tools to fosterthe achievement of maximum employment and price stability. We’re not theCongressional Budget Office. We don’t make assessments of – and we don’t play arole. We’re not up in Congress testifying on this or that fiscal policy. We’renot in the discussions or in the negotiations. It’s just not our job.

So I wouldn’t comment on this particularfiscal policy. It’s just not – it’s just, you know, we have this preciousindependence, the Fed does, from political interference in our decisions. Andyou know, the other side of that is stick to your job, stick to your knitting,which we try to do.

MR. TIMIRAOS: Yes, we’ve heard that fromyou a few times before.

Since we are here talking about jobs andcareers, you said recently that you love your job and your term as chair is upin less than a year. Would you like to serve a second term if it was offered?

MR. POWELL: So, again, I have nothing foryou on that today. My focus is on, you know, the current challenges that weface and doing my job. There’s a lot left to do. We have a lot of ground leftto cover and good reason for optimism.

I mean, the last thing – the last maybelesson would be even if terrible times try to take counsel from your hopes aswell as your fears. Because, you know, when – in March and April of last year,I mean, you know – but you saw the way that people responded and the way – youknow, the response and then where we are, it’s really – we should never sellourselves short. And so I would just point out that it’s good to be optimistic.But nothing new for you on the – on that topic.

MR. TIMIRAOS: Well, on that note we lookforward to the day when we’re able to have events like this in person again.But notwithstanding that, we’re honored to have had you join us virtuallytoday. So thank you, Chair Powell, for a great conversation.

MR. POWELL: Thank you, Nick.

MR. TIMIRAOS: And also, thanks to ouraudience following online at WSJ.com and on Twitter.

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