政观快递 | American Journal of Political Science Vol.64, No.1, 2020
期刊简介：《美国政治学杂志》（American Journal of Political Science, AJPS）致力于在公民身份、治理和政治等知识领域取得重大进展。作为中西部政治科学协会的官方期刊，AJPS发表所有政治学领域的相关研究，包括美国政治、公共政策、国际关系、比较政治学、政治学方法论和政治学理论等。根据2018年Journal Citation Reports显示，其2018年的影响因子为4.354，在176种政治科学类期刊中排名第2（2/176）。
编者按：政观对英文专业期刊摘要的翻译工作主要由团队中的在读硕士生和博士生自愿组织进行，受学生学识及翻译水平所限，译文可能有诸多不当之处，还望读者们见宥，也欢迎留言讨论。此外，由于版权所限，需要阅读原文的读者请通过所在学校/机构的图书馆数据库或其他途径访问下载。
期刊目录
1.比我们想的更有效：对于“搭便车”立法的解释揭示了一个更加包容和高效的立法过程
More Effective Than We Thought: Accounting for Legislative Hitchhikers Reveals a More Inclusive and Productive Lawmaking Process
2.辩论对政治态度的中和作用
The Moderating Effect of Debates on Political Attitudes
3. 抵消疑虑：用双边的不完全信息保证博弈
Offsetting Uncertainty: Reassurance with Two-Sided Incomplete Information
4.男权社会运动中的女性权威：以萨拉菲派女性传教士为例
Women's Authority in Patriarchal Social Movements: The Case of Female Salafi Preachers
5. 旋转门说客的价值在下降：来自美国各州的证据
The Declining Value of Revolving-Door Lobbyists: Evidence from the American States
6. 危机中的秩序社会：对公共理性与融合性话语的形式分析
The Well‐Ordered Society under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason
7. 用精细的产品级数据测量贸易概况
Measuring Trade Profile with Granular Product‐Level Data
8. 公众支持有助于民主存续吗？
Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?
9.偶然的专家：谁和谁谈论政治，为什么？
The Incidental Pundit: Who Talks Politics with Whom, and Why?
10. 财务业绩的政治重要性
The Political Importance of Financial Performance
11. 川普的推特治国对金融市场有影响吗？
Does the @realDonaldTrump Really Matter to Financial Markets?
12. 作为公民理想的国际爱国主义
Cosmopolitan Patriotism as a Civic Ideal
比我们想的更有效：
对于“搭便车”立法的解释揭示了一个更加包容和高效的立法过程
题目：More Effective Than We Thought: Accounting for Legislative Hitchhikers Reveals a More Inclusive and Productive Lawmaking Process
作者：Andreu Casas，阿姆斯特丹大学，传播研究院研究员；Matthew J. Denny ，乔治城大学麦考特公共政策学院客座教授；John Wilkerson，华盛顿大学政治学系教授
摘要：半个多世纪以来，学者们一直在使用单一的指标来研究立法的有效性，即议会成员所支持的法案是否通过立法进程有所推进。本文关注了一种不那么正统的有效性形式，即作为其他法案条款而成为法律的提案。本文将这些“搭便车”法案视为额外的成功案例，这些法案展示了一个更具生产力，位阶更低和党派性更少的立法过程。本文认为议程和程序上的限制是理解立法者为何采取搭便车策略的核心。本文还研究了吸引搭立法者便车的立法手段，并发现，除其他因素外，参议院的法案更容易成为众议院法案的搭便车条款而不是单独的法案。
For more than half a century, scholars have been studying legislative effectiveness using a single metric—whether the bills a member sponsors progress through the legislative process. We investigate a less orthodox form of effectiveness—bill proposals that become law as provisions of other bills. Counting these “hitchhiker” bills as additional cases of bill sponsorship success reveals a more productive, less hierarchical, and less partisan lawmaking process. We argue that agenda and procedural constraints are central to understanding why lawmakers pursue hitchhiker strategies. We also investigate the legislative vehicles that attract hitchhikers and find, among other things, that more Senate bills are enacted as hitchhikers on House laws than become law on their own.
辩论对政治态度的中和作用
题目：The Moderating Effect of Debates on Political Attitudes
作者：Sarah Brierley, 伦敦政治经济学院比较政治学助理教授；Eric Kramon, 乔治华盛顿大学政治学和国际事务助理教授；George Kwaku Ofosu, 伦敦政治经济学院政府学系助理教授
摘要：理论上讲，候选人的辩论能够通过提供候选人素质和政策立场的信息影响选民。然而，关于辩论在新兴民主国家是否以及如何影响选民，仍然缺乏证据。我们以加纳2016年大选中的议会辩论作为田野实验，发现辩论提高了选民对候选人的评价。辩论对党派选民最具影响力，使他们更倾向于支持对立党派而非本党派的候选人。实验数据以及对候选人辩论中的一言一行进行观察的特殊数据显示，政策信息是驱使党派中和最重要的因果机制，尤其是对铁杆选民而言。一个后续的调查显示，这些影响会在竞选激烈的社区存续，而在政党的票仓中消散。以政策为中心的辩论在新兴民主国家有着减轻政党极化的潜力，但当地的政治环境决定了这些影响能持续多久。
In theory, candidate debates can influence voters by providing information about candidates' quality and policy positions. However, there is limited evidence about whether and why debates influence voters in new democracies. We use a field experiment on parliamentary debates during Ghana's 2016 elections to show that debates improve voters' evaluations of candidates. Debates have the strongest effect on partisan voters, who become more favorable toward and more likely to vote for opponent‐party candidates and less likely to vote for co‐partisans. Experimental and unique observational data capturing participants' second‐by‐second reactions to the debates show that policy information was the most important causal mechanism driving partisan moderation, especially among strong partisans. A follow‐up survey shows that these effects persist in electorally competitive communities, whereas they dissipate in party strongholds. Policy‐centered debates have the potential to reduce partisan polarization in new democracies, but the local political context conditions the persistence of these effects.
抵消疑虑：用双边的不完全信息保证博弈
题目：Offsetting Uncertainty: Reassurance with Two-Sided Incomplete Information
作者：Kyle Haynes, 普渡大学政治学系助理教授；Brandon K. Yoder, 澳大利亚国立大学亚洲与全球化研究中心兼职研究员
摘要：传统的不完全信息讨价还价博弈以及保证博弈模型，都会假定行为者的行为信号在客观上是合作或非合作的。即使行为者无法确定彼此的偏好，他们也知道对方会将何种行为视为合作行为。但是在诸多现实情境中，合作是主观的，且行为是否被视为合作则取决于信号接收者的偏好。我们提出了一个形式模型，用来展示在这些案例中，双边的不完全信息实际上激励了诚实的行为，促进了可信的信号。由于不确定的信号发出者不知道自己的哪个行为是否会被视为合作，他们几乎没有理由去对行为进行歪曲，反而会诚实地寻求其真正的目的。因此，当合作是主观的时候，相互间的不确定性就会被抵消，继而这些真实的信号能够使行为者快速准确地更正他们的观点。我们通过中苏分裂的案例解释此逻辑，并强调了这一模型在如今的中美关系中的应用。
Conventional models of bargaining and reassurance under incomplete information assume that actors' behavioral signals are objectively cooperative or noncooperative. Even if actors are uncertain of each other's preferences, they know what types of actions the other will view as cooperative. Yet on many real‐world issues, cooperation is subjective, and what constitutes a cooperative action is conditional on the receiver's preferences. We present a formal model showing that in these cases, two‐sided incomplete information actually incentivizes honest behavior and facilitates credible signaling. Because uncertain senders do not know whether a particular action will be interpreted as cooperative, they have little incentive to misrepresent, and instead honestly pursue their true goals. Thus, where cooperation is subjective, mutual uncertainty is “offsetting,” such that credible signals allow actors to quickly and accurately update their beliefs. We illustrate this logic through a case study of the Sino–Soviet split, and highlight the model's implications for contemporary U.S.–China relations.
男权社会运动中的女性权威：以萨拉菲派女性传教士为例
题目：Women's Authority in Patriarchal Social Movements: The Case of Female Salafi Preachers
作者：Richard A. Nielsen，麻省理工学院政治学系副教授
摘要：女性如何获得公共领域的权力，尤其在男权规范占据主流的背景下？作者认为，当男权社会运动的领导者们寻求新的运动参与者时，会面对扩大女性权威角色的务实性诱因。女性权威人士通过提出具有说服力的、基于身份的论据这些男性无法使用的方式来支持男权体系，获取男性无法接触到的新受众，从而帮助男权运动。作者对伊斯兰教萨拉菲派运动中女性网络传教士兴起的研究支持了这一论点。作者使用了访谈、推特分析，并对21000份文本进行自动文本分析，文本来自一个萨拉菲派网站——saaid.net上的172名男性和43名女性。为了证明这一理论的普遍性，作者还将其应用于当代美国白人民族主义运动的研究中。研究结果解释了尽管有些运动不断强化参与者的传统性别角色，但仍会出于务实的政治考量提高女性的权威。
How do women gain authority in the public sphere, especially in contexts where patriarchal norms are prevalent? I argue that the leaders of patriarchal social movements face pragmatic incentives to expand women's authority roles when seeking new movement members. Women authorities help patriarchal movements by making persuasive, identity-based arguments in favor of patriarchy that men cannot, and by reaching new audiences that men cannot. I support this argument by examining the rise of online female preachers in the Islamist Salafi movement, using interviews, Twitter analysis, and automated text analysis of 21,000 texts by 172 men and 43 women on the Salafi-oriented website saaid.net. To show the theory's generality, I also apply it to the contemporary white nationalist movement in the United States. The findings illustrate how movements that aggressively enforce traditional gender roles for participants can nevertheless increase female authority for pragmatic political reasons.
旋转门说客的价值在下降：来自美国各州的证据
题目：The Declining Value of Revolving-Door Lobbyists: Evidence from the American States
作者：James M. Strickland，亚利桑那州立大学全球研究与政治学院助理教授
摘要：“旋转门说客”是那些从任职于政府转变成为私人部门进行游说的人。这些游说者依靠在政府任职期间培育起来的内部关系和政治认知而发展壮大。这些资产为前议员们提供了更多接触现任议员并对其施加影响的机会。然而，他们的关系和认知的价值取决于他们在立法机构内的前同事。当新议员进入议会时，与前议员的关系和认知就会终止并失去价值。虽然人员流动或议会规模的增加会产生更多可能进行游说的前议员，但这种增加会对前议员作为说客的价值产生负面影响。因此，利益集团聘请更少的前议员进行游说。其他因素，例如较长的竞业禁止冷却期或立法人力资源的增加，对旋转的比例产生很少或没有实质性影响。立法的特点是决定前议员旋转比例的主要因素。
‘‘Revolving-door” lobbyists are individuals who transition from governmental positions into lobbying for private entities. Such lobbyists thrive on the insider connections and political knowledge that they developed while in government. These assets afford former lawmakers more access to and influence over incumbent lawmakers. The value of their connections and knowledge, however, is contingent on former colleagues remaining within the legislature. As new legislators enter the assembly, the connections and knowledge of former members expire and lose value. Whereas increases in turnover or assembly size generate more former lawmakers who might lobby, such increases negatively affect former members’ value as lobbyists. Interest groups accordingly hire fewer former legislators to lobby. Other factors, such as longer cooling-off periods or increased legislative staff resources, produce slight or no substantive effects on rates of revolving. Legislative characteristics mostly determine rates of revolving for former lawmakers.
危机中的秩序社会：对公共理性与融合性话语的形式分析
题目：The Well-Ordered Society under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason vs. Convergence Discourse
作者：Hun Chung，早稻田大学政治经济学部副教授
摘要：只要有相当数量的刺头进入政治体系，一个秩序良好的社会就会面临危机。这可能会破坏自由民主政治秩序的稳定。本文对公共理性自由主义文献中针对政治稳定问题的两种竞争性解决方案进行了形式分析，即使用公共理性或者使用融合性话语以恢复秩序社会中的自由民主政治秩序。本文的形式分析表明公共理性的解决方案是完全失败的，而使用融合性话语虽然效果更好，但自身也存在着致命局限，并且这些局限在先前未能得到正确的认识。
A well‐ordered society faces a crisis whenever a sufficient number of noncompliers enter into the political system. This has the potential to destabilize liberal democratic political order. This article provides a formal analysis of two competing solutions to the problem of political stability offered in the public reason liberalism literature—namely, using public reason or using convergence discourse to restore liberal democratic political order in the well‐ordered society. The formal analyses offered in this article show that using public reason fails completely, and using convergent discourse, although doing better, has its own critical limitations that have not been previously recognized properly.
用精细的产品级数据测量贸易概况
题目：Measuring Trade Profile with Granular Product‐Level Data
作者：In Song Kim，麻省理工学院政治学系教授；Steven Liao，加州大学河滨分校政治学系助理教授；Kosuke Imai，哈佛大学政府系教授
摘要：双边贸易的产品组成阐明了比较优势、全球生产网络和国内政治的复杂关系。尽管可以获得产品级的贸易数据，但大多数研究者还是依赖贸易总额或特定产品组合的数据。在本文中，我们开发了一种新的动态聚类方法来有效地汇总大量产品级的信息。本文所提出如下方法，基于一组双边贸易产品在贸易概况上的相似性（即进出口的产品组成），将其划分为几个类，并捕捉到了不同类别产品随时间的演化。采用此方法，本文对产品级别的年度贸易流量进行了二十亿次观测。本文展示了典型的双边贸易关系是如何从稀少的贸易发展为产业间贸易，再发展为产业内部贸易的。最后，本文阐明了贸易概况测量在对于贸易竞争的国际关系研究中的关键作用。
The product composition of bilateral trade encapsulates complex relationships about comparative advantage, global production networks, and domestic politics. Despite the availability of product‐level trade data, most researchers rely on either the total volume of trade or certain sets of aggregated products. In this article, we develop a new dynamic clustering method to effectively summarize this massive amount of product‐level information. The proposed method classifies a set of dyads into several clusters based on their similarities in trade profile—the product composition of imports and exports—and captures the evolution of the resulting clusters over time. We apply this method to two billion observations of product‐level annual trade flows. We show how typical dyadic trade relationships evolve from sparse trade to interindustry trade and then to intra‐industry trade. Finally, we illustrate the critical roles of our trade profile measure in international relations research on trade competition.
公众支持有助于民主存续吗？
题目：Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?
作者：Christopher Claassen， 格拉斯哥大学社会与政治学院讲师
摘要：人们普遍认为，民主需要公众的支持才能存续。然而，支持这一假设的经验性证据是薄弱的，因为现有的测试是基于小的横截面样本，并产生相互矛盾的结果。其根本的问题是，对支持民主的调查测量是分散的，跨越时间、空间和不同的调查问题。作为回应，本文使用贝叶斯隐变量模型来估算对135个国家长达29年的民主支持的国家-年份面板数据。接着，这篇文章论证了公众支持对之后民主变革的积极效应，同时调整了先前的民主水平和不可观测的定常因素可能造成的混淆效应。此外，与起初民主的出现相比，对民主的支持与民主的持久性更紧密地联系在一起。这正如李普塞特(1959)和伊斯顿(1965)在50多年前提出的假设：公众支持确实有助于民主的存续。
It is widely believed that democracy requires public support to survive. The empirical evidence for this hypothesis is weak, however, with existing tests resting on small cross-sectional samples and producing contradictory results. The underlying problem is that survey measures of support for democracy are fragmented across time, space, and different survey questions. In response, this article uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate a smooth country-year panel of democratic support for 135 countries and up to 29 years. The article then demonstrates a positive effect of support on subsequent democratic change, while adjusting for the possible confounding effects of prior levels of democracy and unobservable time-invariant factors. Support is, moreover, more robustly linked with the endurance of democracy than its emergence in the first place. As Lipset (1959) and Easton (1965) hypothesized over 50 years ago, public support does indeed help democracy survive.
偶然的专家：谁和谁谈论政治，为什么？
题目：The Incidental Pundit: Who Talks Politics with Whom, and Why?
作者：William Minozzi，俄亥俄州立大学政治系副教授；Hyunjin Song，维也纳大学传播学系助理教授，维也纳计算传播实验室成员；David M. J. Lazer，美国东北大学政治学系、计算机与信息学院双聘教授；Michael A. Neblo，俄亥俄州立大学政治系副教授；Katherine Ognyanova，罗格斯大学传播与信息学院助理教授
摘要：非正式讨论在民主政治中扮演着重要作用，但是它在多大程度上发挥价值取决于多元性。本文描述了政治讨论的两种模式。其中，目的模式认为人们会刻意选择那些知识丰富并且政治立场接近的人，偶然模式则表明人们讨论政治大多数出于本能，就像日常生活中的购物那样具有非政治性。为了讨论这些观点，本文围绕整个（社会）网络建立了具有唯一性的多点面板数据库，这一数据库包括了多种社会关系、态度和基本人口学信息。与更常见的以自我为中心的方法相比，这一证据为推理提供了更为坚实的基础。本文发现，相比目的模式，形塑讨论网络的偶然进程更有解释力。回答者倾向报告他们与之讨论对象的关系和性别，而非专业知识或者相近的政治立场，这表明在回声室效应之外激发讨论可能比人们之前认为的那样更容易。
Informal discussion plays a crucial role in democracy, yet much of its value depends on diversity. We describe two models of political discussion. The purposive model holds that people typically select discussants who are knowledgeable and politically similar to them. The incidental model suggests that people talk politics for mostly idiosyncratic reasons, as by‐products of nonpolitical social processes. To adjudicate between these accounts, we draw on a unique, multisite, panel data set of whole networks, with information about many social relationships, attitudes, and demographics. This evidence permits a stronger foundation for inferences than more common egocentric methods. We find that incidental processes shape discussion networks much more powerfully than purposive ones. Respondents tended to report discussants with whom they share other relationships and characteristics, rather than based on expertise or political similarity, suggesting that stimulating discussion outside of echo chambers may be easier than previously thought.
财务业绩的政治重要性
题目：The Political Importance of Financial Performance
作者：Amy Pond，德州农工大学政治学助理教授；Christina Zafeiridou，基石研究咨询公司合伙人
摘要：资产流动被认为是限制税收的因素，因为拥有流动资产的公司可以通过将其资产放置在低税收地区来避税，而拥有固定资产的公司将面临更高的税收。通过对带有广泛金融化特征的政治激励的研究，作者发现一个针对拥有固定资产的公司的新限制：当税收增加时，拥有固定基础资产的上市公司在金融市场上会遭受更大的损失，因为在股东的预期中，这些基础资产不能从税收中扣除。当政府关注这一损失时，它对拥有固定资产的上市公司征税的动机就会减少。因此，政治上对企业财务业绩的关注限制了对固定资产的征税范围。本文认为，广泛参与股票市场和民主政治制度会提高政治上对财务业绩的关注。作者讨论了这一理论和研究结果对政策自主权、企业所有权和经济投票的启示。
Asset mobility is thought to constrain taxation, as firms with mobile assets can avoid taxation by locating their assets in low-tax jurisdictions. Firms with immobile assets then face higher taxes. By considering the political incentives that accompany widespread financialization, we identify a new limit to the targeting of immobile firms: Publicly traded firms with immobile underlying assets lose more value in financial markets when taxes are increased, as shareholders anticipate that these underlying assets cannot be withheld from taxation. When governments care about this loss in value, their incentive to tax immobile, publicly traded firms declines. Political concern for financial performance therefore limits the extent to which immobile assets can be targeted for taxation. We argue that broad-based participation in the stock market and democratic political institutions increase political concern for financial performance. We discuss the implications of the theory and findings for policy autonomy, firm ownership, and economic voting.
川普的推特治国对金融市场有影响吗？
题目：Does the @realDonaldTrump Really Matter to Financial Markets?
作者：Allyson L. Benton，伦敦大学城市学院国际政治系高级讲师；Andrew Q. Philips，科罗拉多大学博尔德分校政治学系助理教授。
摘要：川普的推特账号@realDonaldTrump是否对金融市场产生影响？既有研究表明，关于政府未来可能的政策走向的新信息会影响金融市场。然而相反的是，作者认为未来政府贯彻其政策目标的决心也会产生新信息，并且这些信息也影响了金融市场。作者通过搜集川普发布的与墨西哥相关的推文和美元-墨西哥比索的汇率数据检验了其论点。作者发现，川普与墨西哥相关的推文引起了墨西哥比索汇率的动荡，尽管川普这些推文的政策观点在之后也不为人知，但是这些推文表明了川普执行美墨相关政治议程的决心。通过帮助政治家向选民宣传政策信息，以及因为选民要求政治家对其政治表现负责，社交媒体使得金融市场上的投资者能够收集政府可能的政策风向和政策决心的信息，特别是那些政策方向和政治决心都尚不明晰的政治素人的信息。
Does the @realDonaldTrump really matter to financial markets? Research shows that new information about the likely future policy direction of government affects financial markets. In contrast, we argue that new information can also arise about the likely future government's resolve in following through with its policy goals, affecting financial markets as well. We test our argument using data on U.S. President Donald J. Trump's Mexico‐related policy tweets and the U.S. dollar/Mexican peso exchange rate. We find that Trump's Mexico‐related tweets raised Mexican peso volatility while his policy views were unknown as well as thereafter, as they signaled his resolve in carrying out his Mexico‐related agenda. By helping politicians disseminate policy information to voters, and since voters hold governments accountable for their policy performance, social media allows investors to gather information about the likely policy direction and policy resolve of government, especially those of newcomers whose direction and resolve are unknown.
作为公民理想的国际爱国主义
题目：Cosmopolitan Patriotism as a Civic Ideal
作者：Lior Erez，特拉维夫大学Edmond J. Safra中心博士后研究员；Cécile Laborde，牛津大学Nuffield学院政治学理论教授，英国国家学术院院士。
摘要：正如国际主义理论指出的那样，近来的理论辩论质疑爱国主义与全球政治责任的兼容性。作为回应，一些学者则宣称国际爱国主义是可能的并且是可欲的。本文对作为公民理想的国际爱国主义提出了两点期望，这是既有理论阐释中所缺乏的。首先，关于国际爱国主义的讨论应该提供关于集体身份的论述，以支持一国行为与其恰当的反应态度之间的关系。其次，这一理论应该能够解释爱国者对祖国行为进行批判性参与的责任/义务。本文对将爱国主义与全球责任关联起来的两大说法——被允许的偏袒与全球负责任的民族主义进行了检视并指出其不足。最后，本文提出了公民共和式爱国主义，这可以更好地解释国际主义与爱国主义的兼容性。
Recent theoretical debates have questioned the compatibility of patriotism with global political responsibilities, as identified by cosmopolitan theory. In response, several authors claim that a cosmopolitan patriotism is both possible and desirable. In this article, we propose two desiderata for cosmopolitan patriotism as a civic ideal, which existing accounts fail to meet. First, arguments for cosmopolitan patriotism should provide an account of collective identification, supporting the relation between the actions of one's country and one's appropriate reactive attitudes. Second, such a theory should be able to explain the patriot's commitment to critical engagement with her country's actions. We then offer a critical appraisal of two accounts linking patriotism with global responsibility—Permissible Partialism and Globally Responsible Nationalism—‐and demonstrate how they fall short. Finally, we propose an account of civic republican patriotism, which better explains how cosmopolitanism and patriotism can be brought together.
编译/审校：康张城、施榕、吴温泉、杨端程、殷昊、赵德昊 编辑：郭静远
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