经济学人社论||美国经济正处于有史以来最长扩张周期

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Tracy，女，设计爱好者，推理烧脑粉

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Riding high

一帆风顺

英文部分选自经济学人20190713期版块

Riding high

一帆风顺

注：
Ride high：美国习惯用语，大获成功，一帆风顺

1. To experience success.The candidate is riding high in the polls after a strong debate performance.That stock is expected to ride high on the news that the company exceeded its profit forecasts.

2. To feel confident and/or exuberant because of success or a pleasurable or uplifting experience.She's been riding high ever since she got that promotion.I really rode high after that weekend. It was so much fun!

America’s expansion is now the longest on record

美国经济正处于有史以来最长扩张周期

What could bring it to an end?

有什么可以结束它呢？

注：
bring (something) to an end=put an end to sth,  to stop, finish, or complete (something)例：She brought the concert to an end with a piano solo.

Around the world investors, businesses and central bankers are grappling with a startling fact: at the end of July America’s economy will have been growing for 121 months, the longest run since records began in 1854, according to the NBER, a research body. History suggests there will be a recession soon. And plenty of people are gloomy. Bond markets have been sounding the alarm, as long-term interest rates sink below short-term ones, often a harbinger of a downturn. Manufacturing firms are wary; indices of business confidence are tumbling. Yet equity investors are still buoyant. The stockmarket is going gangbusters, rising by 19% so far this year. And in JuneAmerica’s economy created a whopping 224,000 new jobs, more than twice as many as needed to keep up with the growth of the workforce. The result is a puzzle that matters a great deal. America’s economy accounts for a quarter of global output, so if it stumbles the world will, too. But if it proves able to extend the cycle a lot longer, it may be time to rewrite the rules for how all rich economies behave.

世界各地的投资者，企业和央行行长正在努力接受一个惊人的事实：据美国国家经济研究局（NBER）称，到7月底，美国经济将持续增长121个月，创自1854年来最长的历史记录。历史表明，经济衰退很快就会到来，因此很多人都很沮丧。债券市场一直在发出警报，因为目前长期利率已经低于短期利率，而这往往是经济衰退的先兆。制造业公司行事谨慎，商业信心指数接连受挫下滑。然而股票投资者仍旧很乐观，到今年为止，股市行情欣欣向荣，大幅上涨了19％。6月份，美国经济创造了高达224,000个就业岗位，比保持经济增长所需新增劳动力的两倍还多。此次经济增长的结果虽然仍为谜团，但却事关重大。美国经济占全球产出的四分之一，所以一旦美国经济遭遇困难，世界经济也将随之下滑。但如果美国经济能够延长其扩张周期，那么也许是时候改写所有发达国家的行为规则了。

注：

Grapple with：to try to deal with or understand a difficult problem or subject

The conflicting signals reflect an unusually sluggish and stretched expansion. Some of that is to be expectedafter the worst financial crisis in 80 years, but as our briefing explains, it is also owing to deeper changes in America’s $21trn economy. Growth is slow but more stable as activity has shifted to services and intangible assets. Thanks to new regulations and therecent memory of the bust, there are few signs of wild mortgage lending, over-investment or reckless financial firms. Inflation is remarkably subdued. These forces mean that a placid expansion can continue well beyond historical norms, but also suggest that the way it will eventually end will be different. Recessions used to be triggered by housing bubbles, price surges or industrial busts. Now you should worry about globally interconnected firms, a financial system addicted to cheap money and a political system that is toying with extreme policies because living standards are not rising fast enough.

这些相互矛盾的信号都反映了美国经济增长异常缓慢且乏力。美国在经历了08年最严重的金融危机后，一些矛盾的现象是可以预见的，但正如我们的简报所释，经济增长异常要归因于美国这一21万亿美元经济体的深层结构变化。随着经济活动向服务业和无形资产发展，经济增长速度虽然缓慢却更加稳定。由于新法规的出台以及最近发生的金融危机，几乎没有迹象表明存在大量抵押贷款、过度投资和贸然行动的金融公司，通货膨胀明显受到抑制。这些因素意味着平静的增长可以远超历史规律，但这也表明这次增长最终将以不同的方式结束。经济衰退过去通常是由房地产泡沫、物价飙升或工业萧条导致的，现在却应该担心全球互联的公司、沉迷廉价资金的金融体系以及由于生活水平上升速度不够快而玩弄极端政策的政治体系。

Average GDP growth during this expansion has been a mere 2.3%, much lower than the 3.6% that was seen in America’s three previous expansions. That reflects some deep malaises. The workforce is ageing. Big firms hoard profits and invest less. Productivity growth has been slow. Robert Gordon, an economist, worries that America’s genius for innovation is flagging. Emojis and bitcoins are no substitute for breakthroughs such as jet engines or the internet.

当前扩张周期的平均实际GDP增速仅约2.3%，远低于前三次增长周期3.6%的平均增幅。这表明了美国经济有一些根深蒂固的问题：劳动力日趋老龄化；大型公司聚敛财富缩减投资；生产率增长日臻放缓。经济学家罗伯特.戈登对于美国创新能力的衰颓忧心忡忡。毕竟表情包和比特币无法比拟喷气发动机或互联网这些颠覆性的突破。

That is the bad news. The good news is that the economy may be less volatile. A third of America’s 20th-century recessions were caused by industrial slumps or oil-price shocks, according to Goldman Sachs. Today manufacturing is just 11% of GDP and each dollar of output requires a quarter less energy than in 1999. Services have become even more vital, at 70% of output. Instead of fickle factories and Florida condos, investment has shifted to intellectual property, which now accounts for more than a quarter of the total. After the searing experience of 2008, the value of the housing stock is 143% of GDP, well below the peak of 188%. Banks are rammed full of capital.

这种创新能力的下降确实是坏消息，但也有好消息，也许经济波动会减小。据高盛集团数据，二十世纪美国所经历的经济危机究其原因，有1/3起因于工业衰退或者油价巨震。现如今制造业仅占GDP的11%，产出一美元所需能耗比1999年减少1/4。服务业日趋重要，占据70%产出。高风险的工厂投资和佛罗里达房产投资不再吸引投资人，取而代之的是知识产权，目前占总投资比例已经超过1/4。在经过2008年那次惨痛经历后，美国房产总市值占GDP比例由从顶峰时期的188%下降到了143%，银行充斥着资本。

Most remarkable of all is very low inflation, which has averaged 1.6% over the course of the expansion. In many past downturns the jobs market overheated, causing inflation and leading the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes. Today the dynamics are different. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7%, close to the lowest in half a century, but wage growth is only a tepid 3%. Workers have less bargaining power in a globalised economy. The Fed’s credibility helps, too—most people believe that it can keep long-run inflation at about 2%. Given that racing prices are less of a worry and that it lacks the ammunition to deal with a serious downturn, the Fed is being more active at signalling that it will ease policy when growth dips. This week the Fed signalled it would soon nudge rates down from today’s 2.25-2.5%, to keep growth going.

经济增长期间，低通胀尤为明显，平均达到1.6%。过去经济低迷时期，过热的就业市场导致通货膨胀加剧、美联储被迫降温。而如今，驱动力转变，失业率已经降至3.7%，达到半个世纪以来最低点，但收入增长不温不火，仅3%，劳动力在全球经济市场已经失去议价能力。美联储公信力也起到一定作用，多数人相信美联储会长期将通胀率控制在2%左右。因为不担心价格上升过快，且政府暂无有效手段抑制严重的经济衰退，如果经济增速放缓，那么美联储会示意采取货币宽松政策。本周美联储表示将调低现时利率（2.25%-2.5%）以保持经济增长。

All this supports the idea that the familiar triggers for recession are still absent and that the moderately good times can roll on for years yet. The trouble with this logic is that, just as the economy has changed, so have the risks. Inevitably it is hard to identify exactly what might go wrong, but three new kinds of problems loom large.

所有上述都支持了这样一种观点：即经济衰退的常见触发因素现并不存在，经济增长的良好时期还可以持续数年。但这种逻辑的问题在于，经济形势发生了变化，风险也已随之改变，这样一来很难确定问题具体会出现在哪里，但是有三种新的问题已迫在眉睫。

First, America’s glossy corporate champions have unfamiliar vulnerabilities. This is depressing investment and could yet produce a shock—imagine if Apple was cut off from its factories in China. Tech firms, meanwhile, now account for a third of all investment by listed firms, including intellectual property. Other businesses outsource their need for IT services to a few giants. One of them, Alphabet, spent $45bn in the past year, five times more than Ford. But 85% of its sales come from advertising, which has been cyclical in the past. IT and other tech firms also face a regulatory storm.

首先，美国那些表面风光的大公司有一些不为人知的缺陷。这削弱投资经济，也可能造成很大的经济冲击。想象一下，假如禁止苹果与中国工厂合作（将产生巨大影响）。与此同时，科技公司目前占上市公司总投资的三分之一，其中包括知识产权。其他公司则将其对IT业务的需求外包给几家巨头。其中之一，Alphabet（谷歌母公司），在过去的一年里开支450亿美元，是福特的5倍，但它85%的销售额来自广告，这在过去是周期性的。同时，它和其他科技公司也面临监管危机。

The second risk is financial. Although house prices and the banks have been tamed, total private debts remain high by historical standards, at 250% of GDP. An edifice of asset prices and borrowing rests on the assumption of permanently low and stable interest rates, making it more fragile than it looks. If rates rise there will be distress among some firms, and trouble in debt markets—there was a sell-off in late 2018. If, by contrast, the Fed has to cut rates to near zero for a prolonged period to sustain growth, it could weaken the banks, as Europe has found.

第二个风险是金融风险。尽管房价和银行已得到控制，但总私人债务依然处于GDP2.5倍的历史高水平上，如果想让资产价格和借贷资金保持稳定，就必须依仗长期低利率环境。如果利率升高，很多公司将会不堪其苦，债务市场也会有麻烦，比如在2018年底就有一轮抛售。如果利率下降，美联储不得不将利率降低接近零点，并持续较长的时间以保持经济增长，此情况下，银行地位将被削弱，与欧洲目前的情况类似。

A recession made in Washington?

一场由华府引起的经济衰退？

The last danger is politics. As the economy has trodden a narrow path, the boundaries of economic policy have been blown wide apart, partly out of frustration at a decade of sluggish wages. President Donald Trump has tried to gin up growth, by cutting taxes and attacking the Fed. Most Democrats are keen to let rip on government spending. More extreme policies hover in the wings. On the left, modern monetary theory (a kind of money printing) and massive state intervention are popular. One of Mr Trump’s new nominees to the Fed board supports a gold standard. The greatest threat to America’s long and placid expansion is that a new era of wild policy may be just beginning.

最后的危险来自政治。随着经济走上了一条狭窄的道路，经济政策的边界被炸得四分五裂，部分原因出于对十年来工资缓慢增长的沮丧。特朗普总统已试图通过减税和抨击美联储的手段促进增长。大多数的民主党人热衷在政府支出上大手大脚。更多的极端政策正在酝酿中。在左翼分子中，现代货币理论（一种印钞理论）和大规模的国家干预政策非常流行,而特朗普总统为美联储董事会提名的成员之一位支持金本位制。一个野蛮粗放政策的新时代可能刚刚拉开帷幕，这对美国长久平和的发展来说才是最大的威胁。

翻译组：

Aileen，女，研究僧，经济学人粉丝

Wesley，男，自由职业，经济学人铁粉

Lauretta, 女，法学搬运工一枚，经济学粉丝

Cinda，女，英语花痴，TE粉，爱音乐、旅行、阅读、运动

校对组：

Yao，男，上外高材生，北大苗子

Neil,  男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

Carole，女 ，经济硕士 ，在成为经济学人铁粉的路上

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观点|评论|思考

本次评论

Vincent 男，狱警，电子与法学双硕，爱好诗歌与哲学

文章给出我们的信息是，一种持续扩张下存在的暗涌，因为是暗涌所以似乎无迹可寻，故而你知道这扩张迟早会结束，却是以与所掌握之历史经验不同的方式。详加道来即是：新时代涌现新事物，这是旧道理，就像一直以来我们将历史比作河流。存在的风险点由所谓传统的房地产等行业转向全球互联的公司、沉迷廉价资金的金融体系以及极端政策的政治体系。劳动力老龄化，大公司缩减投资，生产率增长放缓，这些几乎是历史上所有社会危机来临之前的隐患，不过是现有的经济形势较之以往大为不同，风险也随之改变，究竟问题将从何而来变得不可预测。

说到稳定态，它的意义在于：表面之下，事物统一在一起，而统一取决于在相互对立的事物之间做出平衡的应对。平衡本身就是很微妙的词，它吊诡多变，就像谚语所云，双脚已无法踏进同一条河流。世界经济几十年的持续增长，其间不断被似乎日益严重的金融危机打断，20世纪80年代的拉美、1997年亚洲、1998年的俄罗斯、2001年及2007年的美国以及2010年的欧洲。然而这几十年，又是浩瀚人类史上的短暂瞬间。历史的意义在于探索发现，不应断言，甚至基于条理推陈，也往往纷然浮沉于概率之上，成了神玩弄的色子。海德格尔语：“剖析某种筹划之何所向，等于说，开展出那使被筹划者成为可能的东西。这种剖析在方法上要求我们去探寻作为某种解释的根基的多半未经明言的筹划；而探寻的方式须得在筹划中被筹划的事物能就其何所向而得以展开和把捉。”看明白暗涌之所在，厘清平衡之结点，又似乎那样接近。距离托马斯杨双缝衍射实验已过去二百余年，当年烛火微弱，光线自狭小的缝隙投射至乳白色的薄幕，形成明暗暧昧的条纹，二象性，世界的两种真理在这光与影里冷冽地行进，而人类好像在那一刻握住了投掷色子的神的衣袍。

国际经济体系已经全球化，世界政治结构还是以民族国家为基础。全球经济动力旨在消除不利于货物和资本流动的障碍，而国际政治体系依然主要基于各种迥异的世界观，旨在调和不同的国家利益观。如果你将繁荣寄望于取决于全球化的成功（事实上这是主流的愿景），那么你不得不正视该过程经常产生的不利于现实夙愿的政治反应。现实上的政治进程管理者，往往不愿意冒失去国内支持的风险对经济或金融问题未雨绸缪。世之兴衰交替，人之毁誉无常，本来就是漫长历史进程的一部分。在近期一篇《人口老龄化》的文章中已写过类似的评论，“稳定，是由持续的误差所保证的一种永久临跌之状态。”所以，足够长远的尺度看问题，问题又不再是问题，做该做的事，就可以了，当然包括预测不可能尽数预测之事吧。

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